Hsbc Share Discussion Threads

[marko1961] 23/6/2016 16:35

10,000 shares bought. Now i have confidence we will remain and they will fly tomorrow morning. We will see

[iomhere] 23/6/2016 14:24

Apart from a hunch that Leave will get about 45% and Remain 55%, excluding spoilt papers (some comments on these would make interesting reading) my ignorance of the effect of it all on bank shares tends to the infinite. A writer in the FT considers bank shares a possible gainer. If so which to buy?

[warranty] 23/6/2016 11:44

A good and intelligent discussion you two so let's call it a draw. I'm still in the out camp as like Jeffian I think we were sold a pup in 1975 when I actually voted out anyway. Tony Benn at the time spelt out most of the prime reasons which have come to pass since and expanding to include some of the countries it has let alone a future Turkey is a step too far. It needs to stop now so that a new Europe can arise which addresses many of the concerns people all across Europe are suffering under, starting with the Euro which has been and will continue to be, a disaster. I wish the Asian countries you quote luck with their coming together but would urge them to learn from the mistakes of Europe in terms of expansion. Hopefully whatever way it goes it's good for HSBA so we all have a silver lining.

[essentialinvestor] 23/6/2016 11:22

Back to HSBA, looking better.



eisler, what happened to your £3 MKS target?.

[goldpiguk] 23/6/2016 10:24

Hi Jeffian,

Sorry Jeffian what you are saying is frankly rubbish. How can anyone take your comments seriously with sweeping statements like 'everyone else at the time' believed the 1975 referendum was just about free trade. That comment is simply ridiculous.

Just look at the 1975 official 'No' campaign pamphlet. Quite a few of those arguments have being regurgitated in the current referendum.

hxxp://civitas.org.uk/content/files/1975ReferendumNO.pdf

I will not be continuing this discussion as this board is about HSBA.

My original comments were about my decision to increase my holdings in HSBA because I believe the Trans-Pacific Partnership offers great growth prospects for the bank in Asia over the next few years.

Goldpig

[jeffian] 23/6/2016 09:26

'Disingenuous' in the sense that you were answering a point I hadn't made. The fact that the Commission and ECJ pre-existed the 1975 referendum doesn't mean that people understood how they would come to supercede our national Government and Courts and, indeed, in the latter case that is a relatively recent development. I may have been "very wrong in believing the 1975 referendum was just about free trade" when I voted to remain as 24yo, but that is certainly what I did believe and so did everyone else at the time. Ideals such as "help the poor" and "peace and freedom" sound great, but they're no more than every Miss World has stated since time immemorial, so I don't think they were regarded as game-changers in the 1975 referendum!

Anyway, enough of this. Today's the day, whichever way it goes and then we can go back to worrying about our investments.

[goldpiguk] 23/6/2016 00:31

Hi Jeffian,

There is nothing disingenuous about what I have written.

Not only did the ECJ and Commission predate the last UK referendum, they predated our joining the EEC in 1973.

Nobody could possibly argue with you that the EU today has evolved and grown enormously and that is why I have felt for a long time that another referendum was needed.

You are very wrong in believing the 1975 referendum was just about free trade.
Even the Wilson Government which was not totally open with the public clearly stated the following in its official pamphlet on the referendum: (page 5)

The aims of the Common Market are:

•To bring together the peoples of Europe.

•To raise living standards and improve working conditions.

•To promote growth and boost world trade.

•To help the poorest regions of Europe and the rest of the world.

•To help maintain peace and freedom

To help you remember see the 1975 Referendum pamphlet published by the Wilson Government recommending we stay. Link below. (replace xx with tt):

hxxp://www.harvard-digital.co.uk/euro/pamphlet.htm#6


Goldpig

[jeffian] 22/6/2016 23:36

In the words of "Yes, Minister" you are being 'disingenuous'. The ECJ and Commission may have predated the last referendum but they have vastly increased their sphere of influence. 1975 was NOT about more than a free trade agreement - I was there! Interestingly, the 'Remain' camp keep talking about us coming out of the European 'market' which is not the issue at all - we're voting on coming out of the political construct that is the 'European Union'. As every other non-EU country in the world can tell you, it is possible to trade in the European market without being a member of the European Union.

The "free movement of goods, capital, services and people within the EEC" in 1975 meant something completely different when the original founding countries were Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, joined by Denmark, Ireland and UK in 1973. In these broadly similar economies, inflows and outflows of migration were broadly balanced. Add another 19 countries, many of which are nowhere near as developed as ours and with a dramatically different standard of living, and is it any wonder that the balance of inward migration has tilted so substantially?

So we should vote to stay in this 'single market' (which operates a protectionist policy against the rest of the world)? Oh aye, we can rely for our growth on selling into Greece (bust), Spain (shrinking GDP and chronic unemployment), Portugal (ditto), former Russian satellites (what?!). Unfair? OK, let's move onto the major EU economies - Italy has had no growth in GDP since it joined the Euro; France is in stagnation and its labour relations look like our in the 1970's. is it any wonder our trade with the EU has gone down from 56% to 44% over the past few years? "Growth"? Ha!

There is nothing which has been imposed on us by the EU that we couldn't have decided for ourselves if we wanted it, and if we didn't, there's nothing we can do about it while we're 'in'. Tomorrow is "Independence Day". If the electorate don't want it, fair enough, but they can never again complain if they don't like what's dished out to them from Brussels.

[goldpiguk] 22/6/2016 21:03

Hi jeffian,

The Trans-Pacific Partnership has far reaching implications beyond trade. The agreement (still to be ratified by each country) involves freedom of movement, labour rights, and many other binding legal obligations. To comply with the agreement many countries will have to make changes to their laws. Corporations will be able to challenge national laws in international tribunals so Governments will not always have the final say.


As for your comments on the last UK referendum in 1975 they are just plain wrong. The ECJ was established in 1952 long before we ever joined the Common Market. It has never been able to rule on National Law but only European Union Law. The EU Commission dates back to the 1950's and the Commission of the European Communities was established in 1967, six years before we even joined.


The 1975 referendum was never just about a free trade agreement. It was about economic integration among its member states 'allowing for the free movement of goods, capital, services and people within the EEC.' In 1975 we voted strongly in favour of that.
I expect a much closer result tomorrow given the difficulties of the last decade.

In our hearts we may wish to turn back the clock to pre 1973. In our heads we know our country will do far better staying in the EU with our own (sterling) currency; with the ability to set our own interest rates; with our numerous opt outs. By staying we will keep all the benefits of the single market and retain our voice in shaping the future. We should use that voice to make the EU more democratic more accountable and more transparent.

Goldpig

[jeffian] 22/6/2016 15:49

"Just look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership that was agreed on 4th February 2016.
It reduced or eliminated over 18,000 tariffs between, Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Chile, USA, Australia, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Canada and Japan.
All these countries realise the importance of working together as a group to reduce tariffs and trade barriers."

Aye, but you'll note that it's a trade agreement and none of them voted to have their national governments and Courts subjugated to a supra-national unelected Executive based in Lima! We thought we were voting for a free trade agreement in 1975, and we got the EU Commission and the ECJ.

No, it's not about nostalgia, monty, it's about democracy and accountability. If the UK Government do something you don't like, you can exercise your vote to do something about it. In the EU, your vote is meaningless and, insofar as we are 'represented' by MEP's in the EU Parliament (a powerless organisation which rubber-stamps the legislation brought forward by the unelected Commission) we are only 1/28 of a disparate group which simply doesn't have our interests at heart.

As for the economy, 500m or not, why tie ourselves to a sclerotic economy where Greece is bust, Spain and Portugal suffer with up to 50% youth unemployment, Italy has shown absolutely no growth at all in GDP since the start of the Euro period and France looks like Britain in the 1970's? Tell all the people of those countries of the "growth opportunities" the EU has given them.

[goldpiguk] 22/6/2016 13:48

Hi warranty,

Over the last few days quite a few of my friends have switched from the leave to the remain camp. Rather than voting with their hearts they will be voting with their minds.

Just look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership that was agreed on 4th February 2016.
It reduced or eliminated over 18,000 tariffs between, Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Chile, USA, Australia, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Canada and Japan.

All these countries realise the importance of working together as a group to reduce tariffs and trade barriers. The massive benefits of this agreement to trade, employment and growth in Asia should become obvious over the next few years. This is one reason why I have been increasing my holdings in HSBA and other Far East companies which should benefit greatly.

Of course there are many things we don't like about the EU but it would be a huge mistake to go for a divorce. One way or another we would end up paying alimony for decades to come.

Goldpig

[joe say] 22/6/2016 13:34

Call me Dave should listen to an ex PM expert - given he's so blooming useless in the role

Vote him out post the vote - even if we remain

[warranty] 22/6/2016 12:49

No more irrelevant than Cameron's comments regarding a car's ailments zangdook and as to why he'd listen to "experts" for what was wrong. Tell that to all the customers who went to Fastfits in the past and were told they needed items they didn't. As John Redwood rightly said, these so called experts have been massively wrong too many times to be relied on. Like Cameron and Osborne they have taken a worst case scenario in terms of their forecast instead of a realistic more likely view. I'm only sorry that the Leave campaign hasn't produced their own calculations to counter Remain instead of totally concentrating on Immigration which I think has been a mistake which I fear will cost them a win. As far as Turkey is concerned, there is no question that they will join the EU over time which I still believe will be within 5-10 years when entry requirements will be fudged to fit as was done with the likes of Greece, Iceland and Portugal and others. After a good week last week, the terrible murder of Jo Cox has turned the debate on it's head and will now I fear damage, irreparably the Leave campaign. It shouldn't for all our futures but I believe it will. The only positive is that the HSBA share price should fly but I'd rather forego that for a leave vote to get us out of this abomination.

[eisler] 20/6/2016 19:13

Seems like the momentum is now firmly with stay - but who knows? Intriguing week ahead when careers will be made and lost...

[zangdook] 19/6/2016 18:52

Another person giving an irrelvant example. WTF does the millennium bug have to do with it?

[xxxxxy] 19/6/2016 13:01

The Past is indeed another country, but the Future is also another country, and there really maybe a chance to change the Future for the better. But there is the need for optimism and conviction to want to change for the better and improve matters. Staying with the status quo is the easy comfort zone option. Britain is the Future,so need to vote LEAVE the EU and OUT of the EU to finally give Britain that chance. It is the last chance, as they in Brussels/EU will never give us the chance of Freedom again.

'The economic experts concerns on Brexit have all the potency of the Millennium bug experts
By JOHN REDWOOD | Published: JUNE 19, 2016
In the run up to the new millennium a vast array of experts told us that our computers would not work and civilisation as we know it would come to a halt unless we took expensive and massive remedial actions. Many of us ignored this advice and did nothing. When we came to turn on our computers on 1 st January 200 they worked fine, as did all the main public systems.

The so called expert opinion that if we vote to leave the EU we will see a plunging pound, soaring interest rates and a recession has all the potency of the Millennium bug scares. So far despite the probability of Brexit rising, UK interest rates have fallen and the pound has held its value against the dollar. The experts have been wrong again.

I keep getting asked how can I think I am right about no Brexit recession when I am up against the Treasury, the Bank of England and the IMF amongst others? I reply, because they have been wrong about these big matters so often before. Look at the track records.

I opposed the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, on the grounds it would badly damage our economy. The Treasury, Bank and IMF recommended it. It gave us a very bad recession in the early 1990s, destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs and many businesses.

I wrote books and took a campaign around the country to explain how damaging joining the Euro would be for the UK. It was voters, not the institutions, who kept us out of a very dangerous project. The damage I feared was visited instead on Greece, Southern Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. They were plunged into deep recessions, made to cut spending drastically, and ended up with very high unemployment.

I with the whole Opposition in Parliament told the Bank and the Treasury that they were too lax in expanding credit before the 2008 bust. They did it nonetheless.

I warned against excessive tightening in 2007-8. They ignored the warnings and brought several major banks down, creating the biggest post war recession of them all.

These so called experts did not forecast the biggest two recessions of recent years, and did not understand how their policies created them. Why then should we think their current forecasts have any probability of being right?

There will be no recession from Brexit. Our trade is not at risk. We start our negotiations with the rest of the EU from the position of having common rules and standards and no tariffs. Who wants to change that? Certainly not Germany, who sells us so much more than we buy from them.

A future recession is possible, in or out of the EU but it will have nothing to do with Brexit. It is more likely to be caused by bad Central banking, as last time, or by a crisis in some other major economy of the world knocking on to us. It could even come about if the Eurozone has a crash owing to the poor design of their currency. Out of the EU we will have a bit more flexibility to cushion the blows.'

[tony773] 19/6/2016 10:59

according to tdd these could be going to 363

[redartbmud] 19/6/2016 10:37

How much is Brexit already factored into the market?

From previous history I will bet my bottom dollar that it will be impossible to trade shares, on the day of the result, before the prices have been adjusted further up or down.

[prenvest] 17/6/2016 19:41

Should I worry about HSBC when divi yields 8%.

[marko1961] 16/6/2016 08:55

Keep powder dry for now. Wait for the vote

[smith99] 16/6/2016 08:37

How safe is that juicy divi. That itself is offering some share price support.

[supermarky] 15/6/2016 14:40

Vote leave!!I'm long 410

[essentialinvestor] 15/6/2016 09:01

375, really?, well may be, in any case put this back on my watch list.

[proj] 14/6/2016 22:57

It's a gamble either way, Steve.

The FTSE jitters have started in earnest today (under 6000), and it will snowball until the referendum, plus a period beyond.

I think sub-400p is nailed on here....just a question of how 'sub' it goes.

I can see 375p quite comfortably.