Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Horizon Discvry LSE:HZD London Ordinary Share GB00BK8FL363 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +5.00p +2.50% 205.00p 197,648 09:45:12
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
202.00p 205.00p 205.00p 199.00p 200.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Health Care Equipment & Services 36.51 -14.34 -8.40 307.5

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Date Time Title Posts
21/10/201822:17Horizon Discovery Ltd - Genomic translation 1,044
04/10/201812:17Horizon Discovery (HZD) One to Watch -
23/7/201415:43Alan Green says to BUY and HOLD in Horizon-

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Horizon Discvry Daily Update: Horizon Discvry is listed in the Health Care Equipment & Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker HZD. The last closing price for Horizon Discvry was 200p.
Horizon Discvry has a 4 week average price of 199p and a 12 week average price of 173p.
The 1 year high share price is 267.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 128p.
There are currently 149,997,647 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 893,893 shares. The market capitalisation of Horizon Discvry is £307,495,176.35.
bouleversee: So the share price takes a steep vertical dive! Explain, please.
jurgenklopp: Short term lowering of positive EBITDA for FY 2018 did not detract from the very promising future prospects. Indeed, without that decrease in guidance for this year, I suspect the shares would have been north of 200p today on the rest of the update. So much so that I, too, couldn't resist a small top up at a tad under 179p. When this does attract attention and the subsequent momentum the share price ought to do very well.
bouleversee: I see from an article in Sunday Times Business (I'm afraid I haven't yet got round to studying the Annual Report) that "Darren Disley was handed a year-long payout after his shock departure: £321,507 in lieu of base salary, benefits and accrued annual leave for l2 months. He also has options over shares worth almost £2m at today's share price. Disley was not required to go on gardening leave." The article also says that "Horizon said it had also "refocused" the business to concentrate on its core products and reduce the level of investment in its own therapies. The change of direction will suit the new chief executive, Terry Pizzie, who comes from a commercial background." I'm not clear as to what that will mean precisely and whether and when it is likely to start making any sort of return to shareholders rather than losing their capital. Will we ever know the real reason Disley left?
mamcw: Very odd share price behaviour - another bid coming?
kestelmill: Comments from the man himself: "Quite right too given the value of the business was underpinned by existing investors, GE Healthcare and new US investors only in September 2017 at 205p (£305M) in the £65M acquisition of Dharmacon and £40M secondary placement. Given this deal was reported in the financial press as: doubling the top line of Horizon whilst adding significant profit; the consensus of six analysts is north of £2.50; and the share price spent most of the time in H2,17 in the £2.40 (£358M) to £2.70 (£402M) range then in my personal opinion I think the board has a very strong case to reject this offer." "As at today’s closing price of 190p Horizon is trading on a forward 12 month consensus revenue basis at 4.7X. AbCam is trading at >10X. Organic growth for AbCam is forecast by analysts at c10% with Horizon forecast to grow at c15%. Both products businesses are forecast to have similar gross margins on forward 12 month basis. Even if you take into account a much deserved premium for the historical results performance consistency of AbCam you have to consider this is also the year Horizon is forecast by analysts to generate cash so on a revenue multiple comparison versus peers the analyst consensus of 260p a share (£388M) or 6.5X consensus revenue seems sound. Even at that level the deal would be highly accretive to AbCam shareholders. Horizons shareholders need to hold firm. If they want to sell in due course there are much better deals than this to be had. I should state that this is all said in my personal capacity as a shareholder and all opinions based on public domain information."
mamcw: On further enquiries, it does seem that this was a boardroom bust-up. What's intriguing is that normally when you lose a CEO of 11 years' standing who is the driving force behind the company, the share price tanks. Instead, it has rallied today. Makes you wonder what is really going on - a potential bidder? Numis apparently being very economical with any information. DYOR
gnnmartin: I've just looked again at the interim presentation and the pre close update, and noticed that we seem to have gone from "FY17 guidance ... • Group EBITDA approximately break-even before exceptionals and discontinued operations" in the half year presentation to "The Group expects that reported EBITDA before exceptional items and discontinued operations for the full year will be in line with the analyst consensus forecast loss of (£1.7) million" in the pre close RNS. I guess that with the weakness in the markets generally explains the share price fall.
xippy: They have clearly got the placing away with city institutions. These boys don't generally trade for a quick buck. If we've got serious ii interest then current rise in share price speaks volumes of where they see the company going. A large placing and the share price rises by 25% is great news. Lots of ii's have confidence in this. I'm locking my shares away and will look at them periodically. Personally I expect some further gains and eventually good dividends. Imho, Dyor
mamcw: Interesting couple of Articles. First is from Motley Fool (Yahoo Finance): One thing you can definitely say about Neil Woodford is that he's not afraid of taking a blue-sky risk on companies that are not yet profitable -- especially in the healthcare and biotechnology field. Horizon Discovery (LSE: HZD) is one, and though it only accounts for a tiny portion of his CF Woodford Equity Income Fund, he holds a number of similar picks. I reckon Mr Woodford's approach to blue-sky growth is sensible. It's a very high risk strategy, and having a basket of different stocks should greatly improve your safety -- and, after all, you really only need one or two to come good. Horizon is into the very exciting field of therapeutic gene editing, and this month told us it "has gained exclusive worldwide rights to use a novel transposon-based technology platform that will broaden Horizon's gene editing capabilities," which was co-invented by its own head of innovation. It's mainly funded by downstream royalty payments, so shouldn't impact the cash position too much in the short term. Jam soon? Full-year results released Tuesday revealed a 19% rise in revenue to £24.1m, including a 45% rise in product revenue to £11.3m, and a gross margin boosted to 54%. So while there's no profit yet (and none forecast for the next two years -- though losses per share should be getting close to break-even before too long), I think these figures do provide appealing promise of profits within the next few years. There are no meaningful fundamental ratios here, but if you're prepared to take a bit of a punt, I see Horizon as having attractive potential. The second is from a Numis note, which comments on how some of Horizon's competitors in the US (which are much more highly rated and riskier in terms of cash burn), might be about to blow up: A story on entitled "CRISPR Gene-Editing Can Cause Hundreds of Unexpected Mutations", previews an upcoming paper in the high profile Nature Methods journal by Stephen Tsang. In the paper, Tsang conducted whole genome sequencing on mice that had undergone gene editing to correct a gene that causes blindness. While the gene was indeed corrected,hundreds of other changes were noted at unexpected areas in the genome and that would not have been detected by current quality control processes. With human trials already underway in China, and soon to be initiated in the US and UK this finding raises concerns. Horizon has long cautioned over these off-target effects of CRISPR, finding the more precise (but expensive) AAV method of gene-editing is far more precise. Each technique has its strengths,and in having access to all the key methods, Horizon is well positioned to benefit as biopharma customers seek a better understanding of the risks and benefits of the different methods. Horizon's strategic value as a leading gene-editing company is not reflected in the current valuation with several very early-stage gene, and cell therapy companies valued at multiples of HZD. However HZD is playing the long game: in contrast to mainly US peers that are likely to suffer high rates of clinical attrition (safety/efficacy) and/or run out of money. The update on CRISPR may have serious long term consequences for this companies, but will be helpful for companies needing higher quality services, and better validated products that Horizon is renowned for. Numis have reaffirmed their BUY stance with a 262p target share price.
kestelmill: I was on a long train journey on Friday so used the time to have a good look at all the reports and interims of HZD to work out what is going on here. These are my conclusions and thoughts. 1) The last interim gave revenue guidance of £24-26M but also said that revenues would be reduced by £2.7M in 2016 due to restructuring. This was effectively a profit warning - analysts were expecting more like £27-29M revenue and associated profit (loss) - and that is why the share price went down so much. 2) There is a restructuring process and an initiative to make £5M cost savings (£3M from closing down Boston). There is significant execution risk attached to this. 3) CEO has stated EBITDA will be positive in 2017. This reads as, EBITDA will be more than £0, but not by much. Analysts may well have been expecting more. 4) Even if positive EBITDA is achieved, there was £7.4M depreciation and amortisation in 2015. We can expect similar or higher figures every year for many years to come. This means HZD has to make >£8M EBITDA to truly break even on their P+L. Note there are £48M of Goodwill and intangible assets currently on the balance sheet; it looks like they are amortising over 10 years. 5) HZD has a strong technology licence position in gene editing but since the environment and, in particular, Crispr technology is still evolving and has an unclear IP situation, they may have to invest further in the future to protect their position. Also, they may have to, or decide to (since they are acquisitive), do further acquistions. This would create further complexity/risk. 6) There are clear current issues with service revenues. The stream of RNS telling us they have new business is reassuring - but these cannot be material to the revenue situation or they would have said so in the RNS. The company makes £20M revenues so you would expect some wins in the course of their ordinary business. On the other hand: a) they should be cash generative from 2017 b) these are growing markets and technologies which are yet to be fully realised c) they are very well positioned in gene editing and NGS d) there are potential additional upsides in the shape of Avvinity and the £200M+ of future royalties (although I am not putting any value on these at present) If HZD can grow revenues 25% for the next 3 years they will easily justify their current valuation. I believe they can do this so my overall conclusion is that this remains a good investment at the current share price
Horizon Discvry share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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