Horizon Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 25/3/2020 20:46

A buyer from Down Under bags a bargain:

[tole] 03/3/2020 21:18

I've been pointed into the direction of this one and currently have added to the watchlist for now. Looks interesting on a few fronts.hxxps://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/biomedtech/horizon-discovery-ponders-us-public-offeringNice summary of potential US listinghxxps://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/23/forget-astrazeneca-id-buy-this-small-cap-neil-woodford-has-sold/

[jurgenklopp] 07/2/2020 09:34

A huge trade of 628,000 shares just before 9am this morning.

By normal standards volume has been extremely high most of this week.

Hopefully more of the same next week.

Have a good weekend everyone.

:-)

[jurgenklopp] 04/2/2020 16:49

kestlemill,

the simple answer is that Americans value such stocks at far higher values than Brits.

With an American listing you can see ValueAct engineering some kind of profitable get out like they did with Merlin Entertainment.

Plus you have Cathie Wood from ARKinvest really rating the gene editing sub sector as one of her five categories for growth and, in one of the interviews on youtube, she stated that basically, if people understood how gene editing would affect our futures, the three largest US listed shares in the category would be worth nearer $200 billion rather than the $5 billion they are jointly worth now.

Normally one can put these statements down as the rantings of a lunatic. However, over the last couple of years she has become rather well known as the person who said that people were valuing Tesla as a motor manufacturer when it should be treated as a high tech stock and, subsequently, set a price target of $4000 on the share. Therefore her opinions in the last week or so have become rather valued and I suspect many investors will start looking at the other sectors she has championed.

ValueAct bought their first hefty chunk of HZD at around 214p where they must have seen some value at the time. They are pretty smart cookies too so you can easily see plenty of momentum behind the share price over the next few weeks or months.

As a bonus no more involvement from Woodford cannot do any harm either !!

[kestelmill] 04/2/2020 15:41

JK, why do you think the proposed US IPO is good news? Interested to hear your take on it.

[jurgenklopp] 04/2/2020 07:28

No great surprises, good or bad, in the trading update, however .........

the proposed US public offering is excellent news.

[srichardson8] 02/2/2020 21:35

There is an excellent documentary first aired on Monday 27 Jan on BBC4 - 'The Gene Revolution: Changing Human Nature - Storyville.'
As of this evening it is still available on Sky Catch Up. Also available on BBC iplayer

Looks at the ethics of genetic engineering with an especial concentration on CRISPR, its uses and directions.

[jurgenklopp] 01/2/2020 09:48

very interesting interview - CRISPR gene editing content in the first couple of minutes.

[rambutan2] 01/2/2020 04:24

HZD gets a mention at the end:

[jurgenklopp] 26/1/2020 22:04

The pre-close trading update should be this week.

[bouleversee] 14/1/2020 11:10

"Horizon has now exercised its option and Rutgers has granted it an exclusive license to Rutgers' proprietary Base Editing technology. The license includes the right for Horizon to sublicense the technology to entities seeking to use it for therapeutic development. Financial terms are confidential and have not been disclosed."

Despite Terry Pizzie's statement that this should be transformative for HZD as it is claimed to be better/safer than Crispr/cas9 (see notes to Editors), the share price has dropped a fair bit rather than risen, as I had expected, however.

[mamcw] 06/1/2020 13:44

Nearly 3% of the company traded today so far. Will see what emerges...

[srichardson8] 30/12/2019 13:09

I hope we are at an inflection point. Most I have read from company releases suggests this to be so, operating cash flow is mildly positive, there have been large write-downs in goodwill and intangibles (£31mn to £86mn aggregate) and there remains a pretty healthy net cash position. The difficult in vivo division has gone. I just want to see further traction in the client base. The problem is that I can't pretend to understand much of the whole scene and their position in it so it is a bit of a pig in a poke for me based on a possibly low valuation and (so far) good feelings about the management.

[mamcw] 30/12/2019 10:00

Found an updated investor presentation on the HZD Investor Resources section of their website dated 14 Dec 2019. It reconfirms 2019 revenue guidance and highlights all the good little things that HZD is doing. However, I'm still waiting for the breakthrough moment, which is why I'm invested in a small cap like HZD. The next results statement really needs to say something special...

[pjj71] 20/12/2019 10:01

Woodford only notified that he dumped to 3%.. after that no notification is necessary and its anybody's guess how much of that position remains. the administrators will probably be selling at any price as its not their money... In addition Invesco has been sacked as managers on alot of mandates so no doubt the new managers are busy dumping that stock as well... (I think Invesco held around 5%)... IMO we will know when it has cleared as the stock will jump 10 to 15% in short order and that is the signal to get in.. till then would steer clear...

[learner9] 18/12/2019 18:04

Yep. Think you guys are about right in your analysis. HZD is in a very good area with CRISPR and someone is going to capitalise on this technology from a service perspective, but, for whatever reason, HZD seems incapable to make the immediate next steps. Lets hope Value Act can find a way forward.

[kestelmill] 18/12/2019 16:42

Quite right Mamcw -takeover is another bull point. Remember when 180 was rejected. Personally I'd take that now!

[mamcw] 18/12/2019 16:24

I've also been a shareholder since the IPO and its performance can only be described as very disappointing (30p below IPO price of 5 1/2 years ago, which feels a long time to me!).

HZD has worked hard to achieve EBITDA breakeven, but does seem to be struggling to "take-off"; I agree single digital sales growth and a gradual GM improvement is not going to do it, and it is fair to question the balance of risk / reward between shareholders and employees.

Personally, I think HZD belongs as part of a bigger group, but the reality is that Value Act (who do have a good track record) have taken over from Woodford as being in the pivotal seat to determine any corporate action.

[kestelmill] 18/12/2019 08:35

I see on Google Finance that they are showing Abcam share prices going back to 1998, 7 years before Abcam's IPO. Total nonsense. Abcam floated at 180p a share (36p after 5:1 share split and have NEVER been below that).

Taking a long-term view is great but valuations also have to be reasonable. Today's market cap for HZD is £228M on an share price of 146p. Is this company really worth £228M? If so, on what objective basis? I can't see it myself. No profit to speak of and the company itself has managed revenue growth expectations to single figure % per year.

The ONLY bull point I can see around HZD is that they are in the CRISPR market. So far they've failed to capitalise on it in a way that is suggestive of a company that can multiply its value 10-fold, which is what I want from companies I invest in. I did have high hopes for HZD hence my interest.

[bouleversee] 17/12/2019 22:17

I don't need dividend income but foregoing that and topping up on the dips, I didn't expect to be worse off than when I started some years previously. Medicine is changing and I am sure there is a lot of money to be made in this field; just hope the balance between employees and risk-taking shareholders is a fair one.

[learner9] 17/12/2019 22:12

No not confused. My point is on the longer term.

[kestelmill] 17/12/2019 21:56

Not a good example - Abcam have never been below their flotation price! You're probably getting confused with the share splits. I should know - I was an ABC employee at the time of flotation and made a small fortune on them and still have a sizeable holding. All my HZD shares were bought in 'dips' but I'm no longer convinced they are dips. What I see is potential for a few percent revenue growth a year, a bit of GM improvement and cut a bit of costs, against an already high valuation given their limited profit.

[learner9] 17/12/2019 20:11

Then you should not be investing in Biotech. Its a long term thing, so if you really believe in the science then you buy on dips like this.

over the 5 years since `IPO (at 180) , I think 1.40 to 1.50 a reasonable entry price

Abcam spent the first 10 years, under the IPO before taking off. Now about X14 times IPO.

Growth stocks don't generally pay any reasonable dividend, as its all about trying to get to profit and growing the business

[bouleversee] 17/12/2019 19:19

Especially if no dividend is ever paid. Having said that, I still live in hope that it will come good. I was making a profit at one point.