Homeserve Share Discussion Threads

[kristini2] 09/11/2011 10:24

I've sold these at levels above £3 and see not reason to cover, the comparison with carter and carter to me relates to the complete lack of any support for the shares, they are just in free fall with no buyers in sight.

[grahamburn] 09/11/2011 10:06

There is, indeed, not much positive one can say about the investment case for Homeserve at the moment - that much is true Lennonsalive. However, in my opinion, unsubstantiated comments and innuendo such as those made by you and captain_kurt, do not actually contribute to a serious debate. Fine for bar room banter, but not for investment decisions.

My last post (243) should also be read in conjunction with 224 from yesterday where a link was provided to a sensible and balanced investment analysis, not by a bulletin board poster, but by a seasoned professional.

[lennonsalive] 09/11/2011 09:51

Mr Burn, it's not a wild statement, just a debate or dont you like investors talking about these things and only putting the positive spin on things?

[masurenguy] 09/11/2011 09:45

Lennonsalive - 242: Masurenguy, it's that hard to set these things up now. One of the big six energy suppliers have the offices and money, you hire contractors to do the work (G4S, Carillon, etc...)

Their only really dedicated competitor is D&G. It's a peripheral business for the others who are probably not motivated enough to divert the necessary investment away from their core business in this climate. Don;t forget it also took quite some time and promotional expenditure to build the customer base to several million as Homeserve and D&G have done over many years.If they were that interested they would be better off buying HSV with its customer base, existing contracts and established network and rebranding it. Of course that might even happen - one can only watch and see how this evolves.

Edit: grahamburn #243 - an authoritative and informative post.

[grahamburn] 09/11/2011 09:45

Masurenguy effectively reiterated the points I made yesterday (48,000 complaints out of 5 million customers is, as he says, just 1%, Invesco increased their holdings in the past week by some 7.5 million shares etc etc.).

However, today there seems to be an influx of wild statements and stories:
(Lennonsalive: British Gas are probably the biggest in the market already in terms of service contracts, so that shows how wild accusations such as yours are unfounded. Technically, BG provide service contracts rather than insurance, but BG have recently reminded customers that the basis of their contracts is "insurance".)

OK, the reputational damage is indeterminate in the short term and the share price is decidedly unsettled, but the "end of the company is nigh" scenario hardly stacks up.

Probably have to wait till the half year results scheduled for 22 November before the dust settles.....

[lennonsalive] 09/11/2011 09:32

Masurenguy, it's not that hard to set these things up now. One of the big six energy suppliers have the offices and money, you hire contractors to do the work (G4S, Carillon, etc...)

I've been watching as well, the price doesnt seem to move past 250, even lots of buys. Would suggest there is a seller here perhaps.

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 09:28

You do that Masurenguy

LOL

[masurenguy] 09/11/2011 09:26

I suppose a situation like this brings out idiotic posters who peddle rumours and make all sorts of unsubstantiated claims. Potential investors will watch from the sidelines at this stage and digest real
news and developments rather than being influenced by wild statements and pure innuendo.

Lennonsalive - the problem that many of their competitors have (excluding D&G) is that they don't have the big network of plumbers, electricians etc in place and also both HSV and D&G have the lions share of private label brand warranty support contracts too, which can't be unwound overnight.

I'm watching from the sidelines - there should be a good entry level at some point.

[lennonsalive] 09/11/2011 09:16

Masurenguy you make some interesting points, I wonder if companies such as British Gas will be pushing to enter this market?

As you say, it's the when. Maybe never back to levels it's been at, it will lose at lot of customers and reptutation.

I'm out for now.

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 09:15

Is that why they suspended all sales ?
The 48,000 unanswered complaints is only the tip of this iceberg

Bad news comes in 3s....in HomeServe's case if may come in 6's

[masurenguy] 09/11/2011 09:12

Plenty of negative innuendo and speculation but there will also be many satisfied customers, like wotreally above, whom you won't here about and who will renew their policies.

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 09:12

Looking at the chart it may stabilize at 200p short term imo

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 09:10

Lots of stories like
"Boiler cover accepted by HSV only to be told they need a new boiler on first call out before opening it up to find the problem, but they knew the age of the boiler on accepting the cover."

You couldn't make this mis-selling practice up imo

[masurenguy] 09/11/2011 09:06

I have no position here and therefore have no axe to grind. I'm watching to see if a good entry position might appear in due course when the selling abates. The Carter & Carter analogy is completely invalid. They were a training company that was primarily dependent upon public sector contracts whose founder was also killed just prior to the market crash.

Homeserve is not a house of cards either. The potential strength of this business model is its 5,000,000 individual customers with an average annual spend of £85. Without dismissing the seriousness of the current situation that they face, the fact of the matter is that the "48,000 customer complaints" represent just 1% of their customer base.

Sure they will lose some customers and the suspension of selling activity and the bad publicity will impact sales and profits over the next 12 months. However, there is a strong demand for this type of insurance and their main competitor, D & G, will have a limited capacity to pick up some of their defecting clients. However, this company is not going bust. They have a strong institutional shareholding (Invesco have circa 20%) who will put pressure on management to sort this out. A lo-ball takeover can't be discounted either. Unless that happens these shares will become a Buy in due course - the real question is when !

[wotreally] 09/11/2011 09:04

I bought some of these at £4.30 and bailed at £4.15 inside a day, as they seemed to be in free fall. I've actually got a policy and made three claims, all were serviced quickly and well, perhaps I'm just in a lucky area. Blocked drain, leaking sink and dripping leaking old air valve. I have had value for my premiums. However, as with these things you'll never hear the good side of anything in todays media.

Back to the trading
When I looked further into figures in-depth, it appears growth has started to plateau, and with profits due to fall from recent events, I could see these at £1.50 quite quickly.

Steer clear, until price has stabilised for at least a week.

[lennonsalive] 09/11/2011 09:01

Could this be as bad as the PPI selling with the banks, I didnt see the part about the 48k complaints ignored. So I closed a long and took a small hit. These things come in three's, wonder what the next one will be?

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 08:40

Are the US regulators now looking at their US insurance business "i wonder" ?

House of cards

[captain_kurt] 09/11/2011 08:39

I did warn you guys not to go long on this the day of the bad news...much more to come imo

"the firm ignored 48,000 customer complaints"

It will have to refund money and cancel alot of DD for needless insurance.

BEWARE

[was mejmillys] 09/11/2011 08:28

how low can this go? Try 0p. Seriously this stock smacks of Carter&Carter, built on (quick)sand.

[gorvachof] 09/11/2011 08:26

Phoning up pretending to be Santander.....someone has been very naughty quite some time.

[masurenguy] 09/11/2011 08:18

How low can this go ? The uncertainty of outcome is wrecking market sentiment !

[nasprey] 08/11/2011 16:29

Interesting article published a few minutes ago:



As is this one, (albeit from yesterday):