Hogg Robinson Share Discussion Threads

[rockafella2] 30/11/2010 17:14

New note -

[11mel] 15/11/2010 14:37

I don't hold shares in this compnay, i know that results are due in November. any ideas when??

[tom111] 11/10/2010 19:49

Looks as if were breaking out

[zeuseq] 08/10/2010 11:30

2m shares bpught yesterday, another 4m today, c.2% of shares, share price moving up, are Dnata upping 23% stake with a view to buy out with management or Beverweerd Investments B.V. c.20.8% on the prowl?

[7he colonel] 07/9/2010 14:28

...indiscriminate well informed dumping?

[cockneyrebel] 07/9/2010 12:25

On the trend here - nice trading buy point again imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/8/2010 16:08

Up nearly 10% today - news about?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 01/8/2010 18:44

From Thursday:

1102 GMT [Dow Jones] Collins Stewart raises Hogg Robinson Group (HRG.LN) price target to 50p from 42p, representing 77% upside, following the company's interim results. Says effective cost control management successfully limits the impact of a 15% reduction in revenues between '08 and '10 to just a 7% reduction in underlying operating profit. Adds that group margins are maintained in the 10%-11% range. With a lower cost base, and a return to constant currency revenue growth of around 6% in 1Q '11, forecasts the operational gearing to deliver double digit EBITA growth in '11. Keeps at buy. Shares flat at 28p

[chingman] 30/7/2010 08:37

Latest note -

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2010 12:58

Picked up a few more today - AGM later this coming month and a nice buy level on the chart.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 21/6/2010 13:01

Chart looks rather nice here, directors buying too - been buying these for the past week.

Travel co's ratings way too low - pricing in all the volcano and recession fears and more imo.

TVZ results a week today - watch out for those imo.

AGM for HRG in a month, after the recent positive trading and director buying the punters will be buying HRG ahead of the AGM imo.

CR

[hdb] 16/6/2010 18:48

well the finance director feels confident in the numbers

[titeuf_int] 29/5/2010 10:32

Do not get fooled by the apparent low valuations of the group ( trading less than 5x PE) as 2010 is set to become more challenging than 09. Moreover the group has lots of off the balance sheet liabilities and if we include the pensions charges the group has been heavily loss making in the last two years.

Recent economic problems will put a strain on company spendings and the company might have more difficulties in refinancing itself. The group has built its forecast in a progressive recovery of the economy which might be optimistic given the recent macro economic problems we are facing.

More worrying is the huge debt that HRG has to face :


1/ The Group's pension deficits under IAS 19 have increased by £61.1m to £126.4m before tax. The UK scheme deficit increased by £64.6m to £115.9m. that is a doubling and exceeds the group current market cap of 93 m !!

I expect the deficit to increase dramatically in 2010 as the value of the stock market plunged 20% since march 2010 ( date which the report was published). Expect further losses on this side and the worst is that these losses are accounted off balance sheet.

In 2009-2010, the group lost 66m pounds which went off balance sheet. The year before it was 20 m much more than the profit the group can generate and it continues like this the group will have to recapitalise itself as the debt is growing at a steady pace.

2/ this situation is not sustainable and this reminds me of a company called Uniq which is quite profitable and had quite lots of cash but had a whopping pension deficit. The PE is low but the share is in free fall as the group had to give all their cash flow to the pension trust.

3/ if you include on top of this the banking debt you will see that the group is highly indebted hence the low pe.

=> do not be fooled by the low valuation as the group is extremely indebted and is not economically profitable ( when you deduct the comprehensive loss from the pensions scheme). With the economic climate showing signs of subdued growth, the company will have difficulties refinancing itself and the group will have no choice than increase its contributions to the pension scheme which will shrink profits.

I personnally think the group has much more downside left and we saw that it did not rally after the results.As long as investors will shun risky assets the share price will go lower that is for sure. remember how it collapsed in 2008. I personnally expect a capital increase at some point as teh group situation is not vaible in the long term.

[hdb] 27/5/2010 18:49

With all the turmoild of the volcano, strikes and world economy companies are going to look for companies who can manage travel for their employees effectively. Good results given the implied messages of others that these were about to tank. solid business with growth potential and bid upside

[davidosh] 26/5/2010 08:49

Skyracer....What exactly are you alluding to ? lol

[skyracer] 26/5/2010 08:45

Oh dear. Never judge a book by its cover. Anyone who loses money on HRG from today has only themselves to blame. As always DYOR.

[targatarga] 28/1/2010 15:38

the temptation to buy is quite strong...

[teverish] 22/10/2009 15:33

it's thursday. where are our volumes?

[targatarga] 19/10/2009 21:10

nice chart, day after day it rises...when will it stop?

[grahamburn] 15/10/2009 15:31

Is Thursday the day for large volumes in this share?