Hml Share Discussion Threads

[graham1ty] 13/11/2014 15:33

FinnCap have also not adjusted their forecast made at the the year end 4 months ago. Since then there have been three acquisitions. Their forecast has revenue growth of just 12% and HMLH have done 16% in 1H without any allowance for the acquisitions ( which added just £0.3m in 1H as they were bought towards the end of the period.). So £16.6m top line looks out of date. They are also forecast to get c£0.22m earnings contribution in a full year, say £0.15m over the nine months owned. That would add 10% upside to forecasts. Rob Plumb says they prefer to be prudent and do not want to chase forecasts higher, though I am sure that is the way they will go.

HMLH make acquisitions ( where they can significantly enhance profits) on a multiple of revenue of 1.2x up to 1.4x. That is one of the main Acquisition metrics. On the same basis HMLH trades at 0.7x revenue. On a 1.2x multiple it would be worth over £20m or c55p per share

[graham1ty] 13/11/2014 15:15

I had a meeting with them this morning. All is fine. Ram ridge, read my results note, AGM note etc on Stockopedia or TMF. You are comparing apples and pears and sites like morningstar do the same. They compare historic statutory with forecast adjusted. HMLH have increased revenue, gross margin, operating margin and eps every year for ages. The record is remarkable. Cash generated of £1m in half year, no debt to talk of, 16% top line growth. What not to like ? I am amazed there is selling. I met with Rob this morning. All is fine. Finncap forecast is adjusted so they have last year as 2.9p. On that basis 3.2p is hardly demanding. heir target price remains 45p

[battlebus2] 13/11/2014 14:45

I think it's just a case of sell on news.

[britishb] 13/11/2014 14:39

ramridge you need to understand that broker forecasts for EVERY company ignore amortization of acquired intangibles. It's an accounting irrelevance that EVERYBODY ignores. Apart from you!

That HMLH have chosen not to give you an adjusted eps figure is an act of glorious understatement. I like that a lot.

A good explanation here - you'll see that Warren Buffet agrees - do you plan to still argue your case?

hxxp://www.investorsfriend.com/Goodwill.htm

As I say, they are clearly a tad ahead of forecasts at this stage IMO.

[ramridge] 13/11/2014 14:17

There is only one broker covering this stock, FinnCap.
According to Stockopedia and MorningStar, FinnCap's forecast for FY2015 is (was) eps 3.2p

[britishb] 13/11/2014 12:47

Yes that's just rubbish ramridge.

HMLH are one of the very few companies not to quote eps adjusted for amort of goodwill. They should do IMO as everyone does, and it's cash flow that matters after all (and cash flow is good).

Adjusted pbt is £795k or £636k after a 20% tax charge. Divided by 37.2m shares gives eps of 1.7p. Annualise that and you get 3.4p for the year so they're modestly ahead of forecast IMO.

Sellers today are bonkers IMO unless they think things go downhill from here. As they've grown every year since float I personally find that unlikely but you never know!

[shanklin] 13/11/2014 12:38

Blimey ramridge. Are you reading a different set of results?

[ramridge] 13/11/2014 12:32

eps flat at 1.2p. Which makes project eps for FY =2.4p below broker forecast of 3.2p
On a project basis share price has to fall to around 26-27 to justify a forward pe of 11.
Sorry, doesn't appear to be good results.
Please DYOR

[graham1ty] 13/11/2014 07:52

Pretty good results. Top line growing well, gross margin creeping up all the time (16% last period, now 16.7%). little more on central overhead ( systems and IT and HR).

[graham1ty] 12/11/2014 07:24

Results on Thursday

[shanklin] 29/10/2014 10:45

Blimey, didn't take much for me to move the price.

[graham1ty] 06/10/2014 14:11

Bit of buying today ?

[paxman] 25/9/2014 11:19

Many thanks. I'll have a look on TMF.

[graham1ty] 25/9/2014 11:16

paxman... is on TMF. And Stocopedia. On train to London, so cannot Sharesoc it now ( and sorry had forgotten).....

[paxman] 25/9/2014 10:28

If you get a chance to Sharesoc your AGM report Graham that would be much appreciated.

Graham1TY 19 Sep'14 - 12:40 - 86 of 89 0 0

BB. I have written an AGM report. Hope to put on Sharesoc later today.

[playful] 25/9/2014 09:01

This company should be a cornerstone of everyone’s micro-cap portfolio..

[battlebus2] 25/9/2014 08:06

Dividend timetable with the promised .27p

[davidosh] 19/9/2014 13:07

I do not think anyone late to the party at this stage....steady 15-20% top line growth for the next three years should see this at least double again from here. Nice steady business not too much affected by the economy but certainly a buoyant property market is helpful.

[graham1ty] 19/9/2014 12:40

BB. I have written an AGM report. Hope to put on Sharesoc later today.

[battlebus2] 19/9/2014 12:33

Thanks Graham1TY, and welcome Shanklin your not too late i've only just bought a few days ago, lots to come here imv.

[shanklin] 19/9/2014 10:50

Very late to the party but have just bought a few. Will look at adding on weakness.

[graham1ty] 16/9/2014 13:18

They gave undertaking to do MELLO Central. Date tba.

[davidosh] 16/9/2014 12:36

Did you mention having a stand at Mello2014 as I really do want them there ?

They could do with the wider exposure too....may even pick up some business up there as lots of HNW investors also own freeholds or property links.