Hml Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 13/12/2017 16:53

Christopher Mills and Harwood Capital have taken another 3% to go over 11%.

[rivaldo] 13/12/2017 15:18

HMLH may be dull as dishwater, but it's surely doing better than this! It made 1.9p EPS in H1 alone and only 13 days ago said:

"We are pleased to report a 25% growth in revenue for the period and the on-going successful integration of our recent acquisitions. While we have incurred additional one-off costs during the reorganisation of the offices associated with acquisitions and have made further investment in building capacity for further growth, we are also pleased to report both a 10% growth in half-year earnings before interest, amortisation, share based payment charges and taxation and substantial growth in our new business pipeline."

Boredom and low liquidity is winning out methinks. I've just bought a small amount more with spare funds and may add again if these levels pertain.

[horndean eagle] 30/11/2017 15:36

I think varying degrees of scumbags but its apt for both sets of management. It has been put to management that there is very little point making acquisitions which are heavily earnings diluting. They argue they are not and that once new processes are in place we will make hay. Graham is right in that every year we are promised we are investing in infrastructure and that this is depressing the bottom line. Reality is every year there is something new and I don't see that changing.

[graham1ty] 30/11/2017 15:12

Stemis, Rob had a target of £20m revenue and 20% margin. And I believe that was at the operating level ( now 5.6% instead). He gave this is about 2010.

And costs, I have lists of costs if you want: they love telling just how much it costs for HR, IT, H&S, Compliance.....every year it is a new one ( flagged for this year is Data Protection, then restructuring). They love saying how much more complicated it is, how many hurdles they have to cross ( with the implication that they are working really hard, and doing really well).

[stemis] 30/11/2017 14:55

I don't think referring to the management as 'scumbags' is really appropriate...

There are clearly issues here but my main complaint is that we aren't getting told a great deal. How much are these additional costs and what is the benefit (in numbers terms rather than just warm words). I might be a bit more sympathetic if I knew where we were heading financially. I contrast this with ESP (whose management Horndean has also described as scumbags). They have suffered from unexpected 'margin compression' but very much put their necks on the line by setting out their margin and overhead targets (which one can believe or not but at least gives a shareholder something to work with). In contrast HMLH seen loath to commit themselves to any tangible view of what benefit spending all these 'one offs' will bring...

[horndean eagle] 30/11/2017 12:55

I was amazed they got interest for the last placing as they did. Those coming on board obviously weren't aware of the scumbags running the show. Not sure how things change here. Shareholders have been upset with management for a long time and the jam tomorrow we keep on getting promised is wearing a bit thin. X number of years on the dividend yield is circa 1% and we have negative tangible assets. Wouldn't really take much for us to go bust I would have thought if markets turned. Have to hope larger holders now push harder for change. Either sell the company off or just turn it into a cash cow and pay out a 5/6% dividend. That would at least pay you whilst you wait for them to finish off their spending on IT systems.

[cockerhoop] 30/11/2017 11:38

As I have been banging on for a number of years they appear to overpay for barely profitable businesses which would be fine if they were then able to produce efficiencies of scale and cross sell products to improve overall margin - but there's been no sign of that happening to date.

Perhaps regulation will provide a future tailwind to counter the self induced headwinds of the acquisition model.

[graham1ty] 30/11/2017 11:19

Martin !!!! You might well ask !!

I remember Robs target from about 2010 of £20m revenue with 20% margin with nostalgia !!

I have been waiting for the first surprise on the upside, to run for the hills. Sadly, there has not been a surprise on the upside for five years

[shanklin] 30/11/2017 10:53

Hello Graham1TY

Given your detailed analysis, I am confused as to why you still hold shares in HMLH. Indeed your analysis is one of the reasons I no longer hold shares here.

Best Regards, Martin

[graham1ty] 30/11/2017 10:29

Rivaldo, a few sobering facts behind these results. With gross margin having collapsed to 12.6%, HMLH would have to shoot the lights out to reach the FinnCap forecast. They were too embarrassed to drop their forecast today. Gross margin today is the lowest level since 2009.

Secondly, the 4.1p is an adjusted number. Statutory eps of 1.2p today are below the 2013 results.

Since say 2013, they have added £6.5m of revenue.....and £291,000 only of increased operating profit. That is 4% conversion of new revenue into profit.

Then total cost of acquisitions since 2006 ? Including earnouts, it is £15.8m. Market Cap today ? £15m.

Back to profit, if gross margin had been maintained at 16%, the rough average since 2013, then gross profit would have been £430,000 higher today. So, for a bigger business, despite hoped for economies of scale, it appears it takes proportionally £430,000 more in operating cost than it used to. They are making this business more and more cost heavy

So depressing.

[rivaldo] 30/11/2017 09:47

The H1 results are pretty underwhelming. I do consider that HMLH are substantially undervalued - and have good upside potential. But once again there's no catalyst for a re-rating, and once again integration and other investment/costs are the apparent reason for the masking of decent revenue and operating profit growth.

However....a glimmer of hope from today's Finncap update.

They retain their Buy and 45p target. And they have upgraded their revenue forecast for the year by 6% to £25.5m, whilst conservatively leaving their EBITDA and PBT forecasts unchanged at £2.6m and £2.2m.

In particular, the "record pipeline of 17,000 units, compared with 8,000 the previous year, is very encouraging".

Given forecast 4.1p EPS for this year - with a 0.4p dividend - HMLH remains cheap imo, especially with pretty high revenue visibility. A 45p-50p share price is justifiable, but how long it will take to get there is another matter.

[stemis] 30/11/2017 08:52

Once upon a time I thought that bolting on small acquisitions would lead to economies of scale and an increasing margin. However all we've seen is a constant drift in margin with constant claims that the company are 'investing' in it's cost base to accommodate growth. There's very little effort even to explain it. Hardly the most comprehensive review of business I've ever seen in an interim statement...

[horndean eagle] 30/11/2017 08:34

So depressing being a holder here. Earnings diluting acquisitions, more overhead and investment in systems, tiny dividend. Think management have had long enough. Should just run the business for cash and start paying out hefty dividends. Otherwise when they do encounter tough trading and it all goes wrong we will have had nothing to show for it.

[igoe104] 30/11/2017 07:40

 
HML HOLDINGS Plc
("HML")
 
HALF YEAR RESULTS
 
HML Holdings Plc (AIM: HMLH), the property management services group, today announces its interim results for the six months to 30 September 2017.
 
Highlights for the six-month period:
 
·      Revenue up 25% to £12.7 million (2016: £10.2 million)
·      10% increase in profit from operations before interest, amortisation, share based payment charges and taxation to £1,008,000 (2016: £920,000)
·      Continued integration of new acquisitions
·      Adjusted earnings per share 1.9p (2016: 2.1p).  Adjusted earnings are calculated before interest, amortisation and share based payment charges.
 
Commenting on the results, Robert Plumb, Chief Executive Office of HML Holdings Plc said:
 
"We are pleased to report a 25% growth in revenue for the period and the on-going successful integration of our recent acquisitions. While we have incurred additional one-off costs during the reorganisation of the offices associated with acquisitions and have made further investment in building capacity for further growth, we are also pleased to report both a 10% growth in half-year earnings before interest, amortisation, share based payment charges and taxation and substantial growth in our new business pipeline."

[b3842517] 24/11/2017 11:31

Does anyone know when the half year results are due? 2016 was on 16/11, 2015 on 16/11, 2014 on 13/11. I always get a little jittery when results are later than normal.

[graham1ty] 11/11/2017 17:22

45p now that would be a dream. At 33p bid the share price is below where it was four years ago ( and in 2007,pre the crisis). Part of the trouble is operating margins have been squeezed so c15-20% revenue growth has translated into eps up only 12% in the last three years ( fully diluted statutory eps is now 2.49p v 2.22p in 2014

Acquisitions adding c10% revenue each year are all very well, but if IT, HR, Compliance, H&S and now Data Protection add layers of cost then margins will suffer. Operating margin had risen from a low base up to 7.2% in 2014, but has subsequently fallen to 6.7%,then 6.6%, then recently to 6.4% ......or diseconomies of scale. Awful.

If operating margin had continued to improve ( ie economies of scale)from 7.2% to say 7.4%,to 7.6% and now maybe 7.8% ( a gradual improvement) .....if so, the eps would be 22% higher than they are now. The reduction from 7.2% to 6.4% sounds little, but actually represents nearly £200,000 of additional cost.

So, 45p.......it may be a while

[igoe104] 11/11/2017 15:47

HML Holdings plc (LON:HMLH) had its corporate rating reiterated by analysts at FinnCap. The firm currently has a GBX 45 ($0.57) target price on the stock.

[graham1ty] 25/10/2017 09:13

It is not alive. It is dull, dull, dull

[igoe104] 17/10/2017 13:53

Yes HMLH, is kicking back into life.


Looks like the mm,s don't have much stock judging by the last trade.

400 @ 39.92

[rivaldo] 13/10/2017 14:29

It's alive :o))

[graham1ty] 09/10/2017 13:07

I never understand companies that do not use obvious opportunities presented to make trading statements. It is just a matter of keeping everyone in touch. So, as well as the interim state and finals, why not use the AGM ? Or period ends ? I know companies are a bit worried about close periods, but the AGM should be the opportunity for a full and frank discussion with the Board on most subjects. It is the only chance most shareholders get. And to exclude current trading from the discussion is absurd

[graham1ty] 09/10/2017 13:04

The absence of trading statement means an interminable wait for an update. No wonder the share price is weak

[rp19] 08/10/2017 21:02

Paid on the 20th October
(Edited for link)