Hiscox Share Discussion Threads

[our haven] 15/9/2020 13:53

The market had factored in worse hence the reaction. You only need one house so short and it goes your way you will have two which is of limited use, but if it does not work then you are stuffed.

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 12:08

Bizzare TBH. If I had access to relevant platforms I’d short it now but therein lies the path to losing ones house. ;)

[essentialinvestor] 15/9/2020 12:07

Out at 8.94.

[our haven] 15/9/2020 12:05

More than like it!

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 12:03

Seems the market likes it though!

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 11:45

That’s bullish. Just wondering about the cost for actually handling all these claims over coming months if they lose at appeal.

[essentialinvestor] 15/9/2020 11:38

* RNS.
Had a few.

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 11:36

What the hell is going on. Must be something buried in the judgement. Very odd

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 11:19

Spoke to soon!

[danielinnes74] 15/9/2020 11:16

Share price holding up well despite the early analysis of the judgment. Guessing downside was built in?

[goliard] 04/9/2020 14:11

Pretty brutal few weeks for Hiscox. If the court case goes against them I can imagine the price moving to the 500s before a rebound. Little chance of catching the bottom but would be tempted in the low 600's pence area.

[paddyfool] 03/8/2020 15:23

Whilst I agree with the damage to the brand...and don't forget virtually every other major insurer is involved here QBE etc, they will all suffer if the courts find against them. The reality is though that there will be a shortage of capacity and where insurance is brokered Hiscox will pick up more or less the same business as always, the reason being there won't be many carriers in the market. So I think there will be little or no collateral damage as there are few alternatives in the lines troubled by the case, and most of those insurers are co-defendents here.

[danielinnes74] 03/8/2020 08:38

Whilst I accept that people have short memories do not underestimate the brand damage that the FCA case will have if Hiscox are ‘found wanting’. This company’s ethos was all about paying claims fairly. Hard to come back from that if the court dont think They are in this case.

[paddyfool] 03/8/2020 08:33

if they lose the case its highly likely the reinsurers will pick up the bill, so as I'm already invested its a mute point. That said in two years time I expect the price to be way ahead of here.
Not one to trade unless you are investing on the outcome of the court case. I agree that either way the case goes there will be near term volatility.

[goliard] 03/8/2020 08:19

Good analysis Paddyfool but I think the FCA case will be another blow and the time to buy may be after another drop.

[paddyfool] 03/8/2020 08:13

Well the key element to the results is the news on rates. The insurance market is entering a hard phase. A hard market is where the insurers do not have enough capacity, and therefore risk is priced at a higher rate. All things being equal when the market is hard its a great time to invest in insurance stocks. What normally happens is that the insurers will show great results and return on capital for a few years. Then more capital will enter the market and the rates will reduce. Eventually some horrible catastrophe or set of catastrophes occur, perversely when rates and profitably are already quite low. Vast amounts of capital leaves/is taken from insurers and we are then back to a hard market. Its a cycle which has repeated more or less since Insurance was conceived.
So with all that said and Covid likely to produce the single largest catastrophic loss ever, and then by some considerable distance, we are potentially heading for the hardest market of all time. Thats my opinion and I'm happy to invest on that basis. door etc..

[our haven] 03/8/2020 07:21

Interim results are strong should please the market IMO.

[goliard] 30/7/2020 07:47

Really interesting company to follow at the moment. The COVID FCA court case is being live streamed and many of the papers are available for download. If I were a hedge fund I would have a couple of top barristers looking at this and watching proceedings. You can tell a lot from the questions asked by the judges. Having said that I have been in a couple of High Court cases where the case seemed to be going only one way but the judgment went the other way - so it's not risk free. Personally I think we will see a somewhat mixed result. Some of Hiscox arguments simply don't make sense but the FCA has taken such a broad approach that they can't possibly win on everything- but that might well be the point of their case - throw in everything and see what sticks.

[paddyfool] 22/7/2020 09:28

does anyone know what reinsurance cover Hiscox has? This is the very big question. They will have reinsurance cover but...If they have reinsurance which covers pandemics then this whole shebang is more or less irrelevant to value. If it doesn't then the losses are all ultimately held by Hiscox, which would be a very serious hit to their capital base even including the raising they have just had.

[pikemanspike] 16/7/2020 15:37

Court case is scheduled for next week apparently.

[thornintheside] 10/7/2020 13:23

Nope. But they are gonna lose, for sure.

[stdyeddy] 10/7/2020 08:33

Does anyone here know how the court case is going?

[bluedaycoming] 18/6/2020 21:08

Well, I haven't seen a US policy, so with any luck, they'll have entirely different priorities. But there was mention of European exposure. Also reinsurance, and the word negligible (on the hit to Hiscox for some policies) was being bandied about at one point. They tried to pay a few small businesses a few hundred pounds, according to one press report as a 'goodwill' payment, with an acknowledgment that wording was 'unclear' - I think that was the word. That suggests guilt to me. My hunch is that this is going to go against hsx. Also, I think the downside isn't built in just yet; plenty of businesses have gone down 95% after a catastrophe. I'm sure the people here are well aware of the risks and have taken steps, but it might be wise for shareholders to hedge some/most/all of their holding, but that's just a passing thought, not advice, 'cause I'm not an advisor and my guesses are often plain wrong. Good luck everyone.

[danielinnes74] 18/6/2020 20:12

It was meant as humour but gut feel is this will be very significant. If the liability was relatively low I suspect they’d have taken a view on wordings and settled up to avoid the press and bashing the brand has taken. Fair to say the test case is going to push the share price hugely one way or t’other on judgement day.. in saying that you’d think a lot of the downside is built into the pricing now.