Hipgnosis Songs Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 23/4/2024 09:14

That Merck. He's a piece of work, eh?

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 22:32

Normally Blackstone would be given a deadline of 3 June to make their firm offer. There should be an announcement about this soon.

[typo56] 22/4/2024 14:35

Last week "Mr Market" wasn't factoring in an increased possible offer from Blackstone, even though I think many of us thought it likely. Same could apply now.

However, I think Concord may hold off increasing until Blackstone make a formal offer.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 14:35

I avoid limit sales a when this a possibility of a piece of news which could result in a step change in market sentiment and so I avoid leaving them on overnight when there is a bid situation as developments usually occur out of market hours. E.g. considrt if share price is 100p, somebody announces an offer of 110p and you have a long-term limit sale placed at 105p. In this scenario, the share price will jump 10% in a minute or two but you lose half of the economic gain to the man with the quickest finger who takes your sale at 105p.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 14:26

Another thing that has been happening is the US treasury yield has been increasing quite rapidly (T10 is 4.63%pa now) - that is going to significantly limit the maximum anybody is going to bid.

[apollocreed1] 22/4/2024 14:16

Blackstone seems to be issuing a threat to the board that they will exercise their option if their offer isn't accepted . But it seems that the Concord offer forced Blackstone to make a higher offer, otherwise any attempt to exercise their option while concord's offer was on the table would have made it clear that they had no interest in protecting their shareholders. It's even possible that the board asked Concord to make their offer while still being certain that Blackstone would have to bid over concord.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 14:14

Do Blackstone / HSM have a poison pill in the restricted agreement?If so, it feels like Blackstone will win in the end. It is really helpful that Concord are there to stop them getting it too cheaply, but in the end surely Blackstone will win given they have an unfair advantage . I just wonder what is in it for them? I suppose a below-market transaction is unhelpful for their NAVs / loan covenants.Hope that make sense.M

[epo001] 22/4/2024 13:50

HSM, a non-listed company, issuing a sabre rattling RNS about protecting their contractual rights instead of just ... getting lawyers to assert their contractual rights!

[mighunter] 22/4/2024 13:00

hTTps://news.sky.com/story/kylie-music-label-bmg-in-rival-approach-for-hipgnosis-13120881

[epo001] 22/4/2024 12:52

Inching up today! Have amended my limit sell to 119p for 3 months.

[blackhorse23] 22/4/2024 09:49

Money moving to GNC

[epo001] 22/4/2024 09:10

$1.30 would be about another 5p. My paper losses have halved since Friday, which is nice.

So it looks like there are 2 bidders, we can maybe expect a counter offer from Concord and if so then maybe another offer from Blackstone but it is going to be inching up from here. share price now about £1, it could fall back to 92p, perhaps go up to £1.10 when I'd be in a modest overall profit taking into account dividends.

Edit: If Mr Market was expecting a takeover battle then there would be buying and share price rise in expectation of that. It isn't happening yet so presumably there is no such expectation.

One week ago we'd have been delighted to get out at today's price, is it time to do so?

[edwardt] 22/4/2024 07:28

Agreed but they must have expected blackstone would go higher - so think there is a chance they swing the bat one more time. These songs are unique after all

[typo56] 22/4/2024 07:25

If they do at what price? $1.30? Blackstone would be the lower hassle option?

[edwardt] 22/4/2024 07:15

Odds of Apollo putting 1 more bid in?

[typo56] 22/4/2024 06:35

Blackstone confirms $1.24 "proposal". Concord may wait for a firm offer before responding.

[martywidget] 21/4/2024 14:16

Hipgnosis Plans to Recommend Blackstone Bid If Offer Is Made
April 21, 2024 at 9:40 AM GMT+1


Blackstone bid for Hipgnosis receives backing from board
Effort to trump offer by Concord Chorus could trigger battle for music rights investor

[edwardt] 21/4/2024 12:04

Will mr market push share price above that level in anticipation of a counter bid from Apollo...

[edwardt] 21/4/2024 12:03

Board minded to recommend blackstone bid now if firmed up

[jeffian] 20/4/2024 22:18

Two reasons why Blackstone must be under some pressure to bid for the fund. Firstly, they are inextricably entwined with the awful Merck and his (intentionally) confusingly-named Hipgnosis Song Management company and secondly they have a vested interest in protecting the supposed NAV as a sale at a substantial discount would undermine the value of their own funds.

[edwardt] 20/4/2024 18:55

I still think £1.10 is where we should end up. Two gorillas rarely back down easily

[edwardt] 20/4/2024 18:53

Going to get fruity. Blackstone offer not firm but could be next week according to ft

[cynicalsteve] 20/4/2024 12:24

Is Blackstone really willing to pay 102p? The Sky article claims their last bid was around 93p. The Sky article may be enough to prevent Concord getting the votes it needs but what then? Maybe they kill the Concord deal, wait a few months then bid 95-96p? SONG is a true zombie fund it just refuses to die.

Edit: Perhaps this is the most important part of the story:
'HSM also has a call option in its management agreement with HSF which allows it to acquire the portfolio of music assets even if Concord Chorus is successful, at the same price it pays'

[typo56] 20/4/2024 11:46

Here we go..