Hicl Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 26/1/2018 11:45

Man up ffs

[chucko1] 26/1/2018 11:43

Even a further £50mm provision (so £110mm in all) implies a NAV of 144p or so. If you have the patience to stick this out, and with a current affirmation of maintained dividends for this year and the next two, it’s no horror story. It’s up to a 5.49% yield at a price of 141p.

[spectoacc] 26/1/2018 10:53

@Jonwig - agreed. First it was "£5-10m, already provisioned for", now it's "£50m hit to NAV etc". Seems there's further for the CLLN implosion to run.

[jonwig] 26/1/2018 10:19

Alternatively, "This just shows that the private sector cannot be trusted to run efficient and reliable public services." Some fairly good news recently: Momentum have decided that a wholesale deselection of Blairite MPs won't go ahead for fear of damaging party unity. This means that even a Labour majority couldn't deliver on the wilder promises - for some time, at least.

As for HICL, NAV at 30 Sept was 152p so I guess after the new provisions it's probably trading around par. However, there's a hint that this might not be the end of the story. The fact that the share price only fell after 9:00 (and same with JLIF) suggests exit by discretionary wealth managers.

[spectoacc] 26/1/2018 09:25

Not quite what we were led to believe initially. Shows the abject folly of the far left in thinking PFI is all bad for govnt/taxpayer (perhaps they confuse PPI with PFI?).

"...The Investment Adviser has developed a preliminary assessment of the financial impact of Carillion's liquidation on the Company. This has been discussed with, and reviewed by, the Board. Based on current information, the impact is estimated at approximately GBP50m of NAV (equivalent to 2.8p of NAV per share, or 1.8% of NAV per share as at 30 September 2017), which is incremental to a provision of GBP9.4m that was taken at the time of the Company's Interim Results in respect of counterparty exposure.
This assessment incorporates assumptions around the expected costs of the transition phase; the anticipated timing and costs of implementing long-term solutions; delays to distributions at project level; and a view on the possible impact on the valuation of these projects as at 31 March 2018. The Company will further update shareholders at the time of the Annual Results, unless the Investment Adviser's assessment of the financial impact changes materially in the interim in light of new information. "

[schofip] 22/1/2018 17:20

Extract from AJ Bell Monthly Shares Magazine on winners and losers from Carillion.

"Some listed infrastructure funds may feel some pain from Carillion’s end. HICL (HICL) has exposure to relevant healthcare assets and has already reduced its portfolio valuation by between £5 and £10m to reflect ‘recent profit warnings from certain counterparties’; which Numis assumes refers to Carillion. (DS)"

[uapatel] 22/1/2018 15:35

Looks like a little bounce back after the over reaction to the downside. Don't know if any news coming?

[winsome] 19/1/2018 17:24

Jonwig, I don't think all this background noise warrants selling. Most things we worry about never happen. I could stomach the div being frozen in worst case scenario. Markets are very frothy at the moment and my holdings in HICL, JLIF and 3IN may well outperform them in the medium term, taking into account the yields. They offer more value and stability than most of the FT350 stocks currently.

[jonwig] 19/1/2018 14:35

winsome - yes, you're right ... though that thought doesn't help the share price!

I do think a more likely prospect (either party in gov't) would be a windfall tax on the reduction of CT from (?) 27% to 20%. I reckon accumulated dividends over the last 7 years could be clawed back by around 13%, and current payouts similarly constrained.

Latest NAV at 30/09 was 151.6p, so some will be using this as a key number, I guess. I don't think it's ever traded at a discount - not in my holding time, anyway.

[spectoacc] 19/1/2018 07:22

At risk of going O/T - what gets me with the Corbynistas is how they don't need to remember the 70s - they can just look at existing countries, solidly supported by the likes of Corbyn. Venezuala? Cuba? Which isn't to say the existing system doesn't need fixing - PFI being one example, and it's better already than it was - but fixing within the framework of the only system that actually works.

[jonwig] 18/1/2018 20:00

Losos - you have hit the main point there: in the UK Labour last made a huge mess in the 1970s. The generation who support Corbyn weren't there to remember it. They want change and they like Corbyn's sweet talk. Another baptism of fire may be needed.

It's the same in the markets - youngish traders and bankers in the late 1990s (the dot-com boom) had no experience of the last big bear market of the 1970s and didn't know what to expect. I started investing in 1971 and will never forget that experience!

[losos] 18/1/2018 19:45

chucko1 -"bit of a sell-a-thon today"

A bit lower and even the very small premium could go. That would persuade me to add.
Getting a bit fed up with all the political interferance in business, is there no one around who remembers the era of the communist East European economies ???

[schofip] 18/1/2018 16:02

It is always a good time to buy whist other people are losing their head

[schofip] 18/1/2018 16:00

Couldn't resist the temptation have added.

[uapatel] 18/1/2018 15:44

Well wasn't going to add till later, but the drop was a bit quick relatively, so decided to add a small amount more.

[spectoacc] 18/1/2018 13:21

Agreed @Jonwig - Tories seem to be quietly nicking a lot of Labour's policies, which at least steals their thunder. Eg regulation of utilities.

Still in HICL mind, & happy to run it for divi.

[jonwig] 18/1/2018 12:29

This morning's NAO report was pretty damning on the value to gov't of PFI, and might strengthen Labour's intention of acting if they get the chance. A windfall tax looks more likely than re-nationalising of projects, if only because of legal complexities in the latter.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories imposed this as it's become a political issue for them.

[nimbo1] 18/1/2018 12:19

could have a long way to run the negative sentiment in this space imo. may look to buy in but falling knife at the mo it appears. interested in the opportunity when it settles though.

[uapatel] 17/1/2018 13:53

Thanks for posting those articles jonwig, interesting reading.

Still waiting on things to settle here before adding more. Probably wait till end of the month then Drip feed in.

[jonwig] 16/1/2018 06:32

Two useful articles, I think:

[schofip] 15/1/2018 13:26

I am guessing they are sitting on quite a bit of unpaid money to Carillion and will subtract any additional costs from that.

[hiddendepths] 15/1/2018 11:10

Could be some nice crumbs to pick up from the Carillion debacle.

[spectoacc] 15/1/2018 09:41

There's surely - at the very least - additional costs?

[uapatel] 15/1/2018 09:21

Agree with you on the that The Juggler. They have had plans in place for this scenario and I'm sure it will work it self through.

Will look to add more as price settles.