Hicl Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[petewy] 18/4/2021 11:26

Thanks Jomnwig

[jonwig] 18/4/2021 08:23

Telegraph:

Eurostar has struck a deal with its lenders to refinance hundreds of millions of pounds of debts, paving the way to re-open talks with ministers over financial support from British taxpayers.

A group of banks, including state-backed NatWest, have agreed to refinance £400m of loans that were due to be repaid this summer.

City sources said that Eurostar shareholders are prepared to do “heavy lifting” by injecting fresh capital into the business, but are hopeful of accessing state aid as part of a plan to preserve the operator’s long-term future.

Explains why the share price here bottomed about 3 weeks ago?

[jonwig] 26/3/2021 14:42

I believe you are right.
Eurostar will continue, it will pay its dues to HS1, as will Le Shuttle, hence the French road.
And the rescue negotiations? Above my pay grade on thia!

[williamcooper104] 26/3/2021 11:17

I was very crudely getting to a write off of c50 percent There's going to be a lot of project level debt which complicates the analysis But either way it does look over done - so I bought more today - divi yield over 5 is attractive here

[spoole5] 26/3/2021 08:52

Market seems to be writing off most of the value of these assets!

[skinny] 25/3/2021 18:04

Thanks for that - I've held these since 2011 and don't often look (that hard) these days.

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 17:55

Looking at pages 48-50 of last accounts gives the revenue assumptions of the three demand assets With the two french assets there's an American highway - which given the vaccine rate in the US looks like it should/could increase in value since last balance sheet date A63/HS1 appears to be about 12 percent of total assets

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 17:28

Plus the A63 motorway in France too

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 17:26

That must be it - especially with gilts firming up recently

[jonwig] 25/3/2021 17:20

It is specific to HICL, which holds 35% of HS1 which derives income from Eurostar.
Eurostar's financial situation is only made worse from covid travel restictions.

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 17:11

With Eurostar could be talk of all travel to France being subject to mandatory hotel quarantine

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 17:09

Don't know - has to be something specific to HICL given that BBGI and INPP haven't moved by as much

[jonwig] 25/3/2021 17:06

Eurostar? Brinkmanship between majority shareholder (ie. French govt) and UK about rescue funds?

The French are hopping mad with us for a number of reasons.

[williamcooper104] 25/3/2021 16:45

Was wondering as well

[spoole5] 25/3/2021 16:40

Any reason for the abrubt falll here

[jonwig] 23/2/2021 16:31

Demand-based assets such as HS1 (and Eurostar dodgy), rising interest rate fears (hence lower future nav), maybe.
Next year's divi maintained not raised.
Maybe enough to create share price weakness - markets fragile.

[badtime] 23/2/2021 15:54

Market doesn't seem to like results

[williamcooper104] 12/2/2021 14:19

While NAV will eventually decline due to PFI contracts (gold dust) expiring the valuation discount rate is c7 percent - which on share price is around 6 The discount rate will assume inflation at around 2 but in a lower inflation outturn hicl will still outperform given that a 4-5 percent outrun will be better than most other fixed income returns in that environment At 6 given that high yield returns are now sub 400bps I think HICL is good relative value and a decent substitute for bonds/gilts in any equity/fixed income blended portfolio Amusingly trying to sell PFI contracts to U.K. pension funds in their hey day was next to impossible

[williamcooper104] 12/2/2021 14:14

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/12/hicl-infrastructure-dividend-growth-on-hold/amp/Article on HICL

[schofip] 09/2/2021 15:46

It could be something to do with thr change in the relationship between. The nhs and private business announced on Friday.

[schofip] 08/2/2021 22:11

Well I sold out my complete holding on Friday having exceeded my target of 175. It then went up another 3p leaving me somewhat disappointed in poor timing. However today they have fallen 5p making me feel glad I stood by my target. This share does not tend to go up and down 5p at a time based on nothing. I see it more of a slow burn boring plodder.

[steve3sandal] 08/2/2021 13:25

Fundamentals have little to do with 2 days SPs. Indeed if the recent GME hysteria comes over here fundamentals and SPs will be utterly unconnected. Some people will have market timed out on the spike. More sellers than buyers today. I hold in my income bucket.

[rik shaw] 08/2/2021 12:04

A number of shares moved in a similar way on Friday and have dropped back today inc BBGI and SEQI so not particular to HICL

[schofip] 08/2/2021 10:41

Anyone know why HICL had big rise Friday and then dropped today. Was this driven by fundamentals.

[williamcooper104] 06/2/2021 12:16

Hard to get a better investment that a vintage PFI contract