Hicl Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 19/7/2018 11:04

2.01 pence per ordinary share (the "Q1 Dividend"). The shares will go ex-dividend on 23 August 2018 and the Q1 Dividend will be paid on 28 September 2018 to shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 24 August 2018.

[jonwig] 19/7/2018 06:28

@ Irkin - I read Citywire and saw the link, but the site won't let me register for 'Investment Trust Insider', as it wants the firm I work for and my firm email. I've tried cheating but it's too clever for me.

Have you a workround for that, please? It seems daft not to let PIs read them, as they are big users of ITs!

[chucko1] 19/7/2018 01:07

One of the REITs they cite is AEWL. Battered so far, but just starting to recover after recent update.

[irkin] 18/7/2018 20:32

Interesting comments re the premium:

[chucko1] 18/7/2018 18:00

Yup - GCP Infrastructure (I meant GCP as the ticker).

DIGS is interesting as it explains why ESP should be able to turn their fortunes around - which is just what they appear to be doing. (slightly off-topic, but if you're interested in GCP/HICL/DIGS then you will have met ESP en passant).

[spangle93] 18/7/2018 15:19

Great discussion - it's always a privilege to read jonwig posts, though they usually make me feel like a numpty!
Chucko - do you mean GCP Infrastructure? I've been in GCP Student Living (DIGS) since IPO, and I'm very pleased with it.

[chucko1] 18/7/2018 13:13

Well, I left some on the table but spent half the cash on GCP, which is a lower risk version (a bond portfolio, effectively). I am happy to have the performance risk still, but in its more diluted form and I have interest rate hedges elsewhere in any event.

GCP trades at around 6% premium (was much higher last year) which I think is fair given the quality of the asset managers and the more dependable nature of its underlying assets.

[spectoacc] 18/7/2018 12:14

"Always better to leave some on the table for the next man" - couldn't agree more. Sometimes feel I get suckered by my own consciousness of where the price has been, rather than where it's going, but all good learning.

Plus - where you put the money is as important.

[schofip] 18/7/2018 09:37

Specto sorry to sound like a broken record but, could w have made more probably, Could we have lost more very probably. I only ever lose sleep when I lose money not when I don't gain it.

[spectoacc] 18/7/2018 08:42

Those of us selling out are wrong so far. JLIF come off a bit, HICL got stronger.

@chucko1 - I can't claim any prescience whatsoever re the Brexit vote, but hadn't had a day like that since 2008 :)

[chucko1] 17/7/2018 13:45

@SpectoAcc - quite! Clearly I have lost a few memory cells the past years as I get increasingly decrepit.

In fact, I thought that might happen (certainly more than the 10% probablility implied by the betting markets), but could not execute anything at 8.00am. Some of the prices were truly dire and only managed to get bits and pieces during the morning.

Very quickly back onto PHP, the 105p NAV I was referring to is the EPRA NAV estimate for end FY 2018. The same figure was 91.1p FY 2016 and 100.7p FY2017. The EPRA NAV is the best one to use as it takes derivatives hedging etc. into account.

[spectoacc] 17/7/2018 13:01

@chucko1 - except for the day after the Brexit vote ;)

[schofip] 17/7/2018 10:53

I think we were all wrong footed by the political angle on HICL whether the risk is real or just vote grabbing bluster.

Despite trading a high value portfolio for over 10 years I would never consider myself in any way an expert and i am always very interested in what other people have to say on boards like this as it often highlights opportunities and threats I had not considered. I am also in 3inf, phnx.

I never stay permanently in any share. I tend to use the relative strength indicators and buy and sell based on overbought and over sold levels of 70/80% and 20/30%. I am sure there may be many flaws in this strategy but it has worked very well for me.

At the end of the day i am making good money and sleep soundly at night. Could I make more with a different strategy,probably. Could I lose more very probably.

[jonwig] 17/7/2018 10:09

apollo, chucko - as for the PHP NAV, choose your weapons: IFRS was 94.7p, EPRA 100.7p at 31/12.

There seems to have been a fair bit of fundraising since then, which might have lowered these figures temporarily (cash drag). For some reason I chose to buy AGR over PHP - LTV I think it was.

[apollocreed1] 17/7/2018 09:58

The Morningstar quote page states that PHP is on a premium of 28%. Is that figure wrong? If correct then seems very expensive.

[chucko1] 17/7/2018 09:41

@SpectoAcc - totally agree with your thoughts on avoiding large premia. This eneabled me to trade in and out of ESP a number of times as it approached 10% premium for a relatively new issue. I still have a large position which I am nursing back to health! I'm back in profit now, but that does include trading and dividends!

On PHP, they have a compounded return of 12.9% over 21 years. From recall, the NAV is circa 105p with a current share price of 115.6p (just gone ex-div), so a premium of 10%. They have very long leases on their properties and a div yld of 4.66% so a premium in this case is not such a large risk in the context of the quality of the enterprise.

If you are looking from some extra juice, try NRR. It's retail focused hence the stock's current malaise. But it's largely misunderstood and the 8% div yld and share price discount compensate adequately. The experience of the management is noteworthy.

[spectoacc] 17/7/2018 09:23

Agree with 2nd paragraph @schofip.

Trouble with first para is that when things do go wrong - as they inevitably do, one day - there's no "cushion". My own recent experience of HICL (initially bought at premium of c.6% vs 20%+ it had been trading at, but still a premium, and still fell to a discount) shows that. Also ESP (bought at par after it had been on a decent premium, including raising cash above NAV at 107p), and SQN, which fell from big premium to big discound. When a premium goes from eg +20% to -10% disount, as HICL did, that's a big capital loss despite very little having happened other than a change in sentiment to PFI. (I'm ignoring the Carillion collapse & subsequent small reduction in NAV!).

I don't want to pay more than the assets are valued at in the accounts, unless there's a clear reason to believe the accounts undervalue the NAV (true of some property co's). I'd much rather buy at a discount, even if greed frequently gets the better of me & I'm in too early.

Horses for courses tho - the likes of LTI and Aurora show expensive things can keep getting more expensive. I don't hold either mind ;)

(There's an argument HICL's assets are undervalued - the bid for JLIF shows that - but as everyone's pointed out, it's a brave punt on political risk).

[schofip] 17/7/2018 08:59

My take is, A high yield share trading at a high premium is a measure of its low risk factors. I am a fairly cautious investor so the stocks I pick generally are high yielding and at a high premium.

I am surprised in the offer for JLIF as I think there is high political risk. High risk coupled with a high premium does not tick the boxes for me. The announcement also made reference to the offer being subject to a "due diligence" exercise.
As for HICL counter bidding. I would suggest HICL are now looking for opportunities outside the UK and would not want to increase its at risk assets.

[spectoacc] 17/7/2018 07:19

@chucko1 - PHP appears to be on a large premium, not for me - have always regretted buying at premiums the rare times I've done it!

@jonwig - perhaps where HICL's recently traded puts you off, and in truth, how much upside is there from here? They're the most UK-focused of the listed ITs. Mind you - it's a decent yield, and has been throughout.

[jonwig] 17/7/2018 07:01

@ Spec - yes, I've read some suggestions, even that HICL might be a counter-bidder. (An all-share bid?) But to me the offer looks very generous - presumably a deterrent.

At 31/03:

HICL NAV 149.6p so current premium 1%.
JLIF NAV 121.9p so bid premium 17%.

So HICL should be a buy. Why aren't I convinced?

[spectoacc] 17/7/2018 06:47

@chucko1/jonwig - don't forget the possibility of a counter-bid on JLIF ;)

I'll have a look at PHP.

Entirely right re GRIO & interest rates - from memory, around 70% of income is index-linked, which helps a little. They want to be valued as per a Linker, but the regulatory shenanigans (which don't actually affect them too much, they've very little of the "doubling" stuff) shows that's not right.

[schofip] 16/7/2018 20:20

Good News. I am heavily into PHP as well and concur with your deliberation Chucko1.

[chucko1] 16/7/2018 17:34

@jonwig, everyone posting today appears to be similarly minded, to a degree. I guess we are expressing our intolerance of acute political/event risk determining cash flows rather than the more analysable economic performance of its assets.