Hercules Props. Share Discussion Threads

[penpont] 15/3/2004 12:29

rivaldo - from memory the SCSW article didn't give price targets and just went with the current broker forecast. I find it interesting though that in the everyinvestor article they say:

'The prospective PE ratio is down in single figures for expected 2004 earnings and falls even further on forecasts for 2005 that are described by the company as undemanding'

I don't know if everyinv. has spoken to the company or if this is from a research note or whatever, but it does suggest eps of 40p+ and if it comes about should aid the re-rating process.

[rivaldo] 15/3/2004 12:13

Nice to see the AESOP continuing to buy in shares - another sign of confidence:

"Hercules Property Services PLC (the 'Company' or 'Hercules') was notified on 12 March 2004 of dealings in its ordinary shares of 5p each ('Ordinary Shares') by HPS Property Limited, the trustee of the Hercules Property Services PLC All Employee Share Ownership Plan 2001 (the 'AESOP'), which is a discretionary trustfor the benefit of its employees (including executive directors), in connection with the following transaction (the 'Transaction').

Date of Transaction: 12 March 2004
Transaction: Purchase of Ordinary Shares
Number of Ordinary Shares Purchased: 10,000
Price per Ordinary Share: 282p

Following the Transaction, the trustee of the AESOP holds a total of 414,100
Ordinary Shares in Hercules representing approximately 2.16 per cent. of the
Company's issued share capital. Under paragraph 2 of Schedule 13 to the
Companies Act 1985 (the 'Act'), the executive directors are deemed to be
interested in these shares for the purposes of section 324 of the Act."

[rivaldo] 15/3/2004 09:30

Penpont, you're a mine of info! Almost every trade so far today is a buy - not surprising given 2 separate tips over the last couple of days.

Did SCSW have any particular price or EPS forecasts penpont?

[penpont] 14/3/2004 18:43

Pretty positive write up in SCSW this weekend shouldn't do any harm - given a 'hold'rec.

[rivaldo] 14/3/2004 17:58

Thx for the tip summary penpont.

Spec, I agree - I've been going on about stakebuilding ever since the results, and the strong performance over the last couple of trading days continues to support that theory. I'm still not ruling out bid action yet again, but I'm also happy to speculate on a 360p minimum share price target based on a forward P/E of 9.

At worst, the placing at 275p should provide a base level for the price from now on. Seems like those who bailed out early on HPS after the results have been sadly mistaken (Freddy, where are you now?!).

[the speculator] 13/3/2004 17:33

Numerous buys at 10 & 15k amounts.

This pattern suggests possible stake building.

[penpont] 12/3/2004 12:33

HPS is the main tip on the everyinvestor website today. Not much that's new but has the following conclusion:

'The company is also generating plenty of cash to pay down the debt burden that had declined from £36.9m in June 2003 to £33.9m as at June 2004. The group expects to generate a further £4m of cash by June 2004. In addition, in response to strong institutional demand, it has raised a further £2.5m from investors. This means that by next June the debt burden should be down to around £27.5m and falling.

The placing of a five per cent stake in the company took place at 275p and stopped in its tracks a strong rally in the share price that has subsequently fallen back from a recent peak of 293.5p to 280p. My guess is that the shares will soon be climbing again and have the potential to at least double over the next year.'
Article also stated :
'The prospective PE ratio is down in single figures for expected 2004 earnings and falls even further on forecasts for 2005 that are described by the company as undemanding'





Edit - should have said this site is sub-only though think tips may be available to all after a few days .

[eburne1960] 08/3/2004 18:20

Rivaldo - re Growth Company Investor's write-up (sorry about the delay in replying, I have to go to a business library to read it!) - they said the market is expecting for 2004 turnover of £43m, £9.2m pre-tax profit, eps 35.6, & concluded "the shares certainly have appeal".

[rivaldo] 08/3/2004 12:32

Hi campbed : I just like companies on low P/E's and paying dividends, especially in my ISA's (have you looked at XKO and CKN?).

Good points made about renewed confidence in HPS following the trading statement and about the insurance renewal season. I'm also seeing the start of press attention about the introduction of REIT's - do you think this will further increase activity in the sector and benefit HPS (more auctions, insurance activity etc)?

[campbed] 08/3/2004 12:08

Rivaldo: just followed you over from WNDR board; we must both like B2B service companies on low earnings ratings given there is some improvement in the general business climate. I think that in view of HPS' recent track record on profit warnings that the RNS confirming in line trading does have significance as much of the insurance renewals are effected in March/April but unrest from customers about any uncompetitiveness in rates will already have been voiced.

I also think you don't need to look further than your "so a P/E of 10 shouldn't be too demanding for a company in fast turnaround mode" and EPS of some 40p on the back of the RNS to explain today's jump towards 300p.

[rivaldo] 08/3/2004 11:27

OK, maybe it's more than a solid hold!

The RNS was a nothing, so what's up - an 11p rise from nowhere!?

[rivaldo] 05/3/2004 14:32

Exactly.

A solid hold now - and I assume HPS must have made the right noises to the institutions about current trading and future plans.

Perhaps a break over £3 is now on? If HPS meet EPS expectations to June 2004, the forecast of just under 40p EPS next year should equate IMO to a share price of 360p-400p, or a P/E of 9 or 10. At its peak HPS was on a P/E of 14 from memory, so a P/E of 10 shouldn't be too demanding for a company in fast turnaround mode.

[simonevans] 05/3/2004 13:50

Yes, i would agree that it is good news. Rightly so imo, management are very focused on reducing net debt. Expect this to continue for another year or so before they go looking for any bolt-on acquisitions of any size.

[rivaldo] 05/3/2004 12:38

Crawford, I disagree - surely it's got to be extremely positive news?! They've managed to reduce debt, they've persuaded institutions to invest at hardly any discount to the current share price and they've established a floor for the share price. I'd say that's pretty impressive. And the outlook "remains positive" - on a forward P/E of around just 7.

Here it is for the record:

"Hercules Property Services plc ('Hercules') announces that it has today entered into an arrangement, conditional on admission, to place 900,000 new ordinary shares ('New Ordinary Shares') at 275 pence per share (the 'Placing'), to raise approximately £2.48 million before expenses. The New Ordinary Shares represent approximately 4.92 per cent of Hercules's existing issued share capital. The broker to the Placing is Investec. The net proceeds will be used to reduce net debt.

Applications have been made for the New Ordinary Shares to be admitted to the
Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to the London Stock Exchange for
admission to trading on the London Stock Exchange's market for listed
securities. It is expected that admission will take place on Wednesday 10 March 2004. The New Ordinary Shares will rank pari passu with the existing issued ordinary shares, including the right to receive the interim dividend of 1.6 pence per share payable on 5 July 2004.

Commenting on the placing, Rob Plumb, Managing Director of Hercules said:

'We are delighted with this Placing as it allows us to significantly reduce our
debt and at the same time, following increased interest in the Company, widen
our shareholder base. Our outlook remains positive for the second half.'"

[crawford] 05/3/2004 12:32

Interesting announcement. Institutions must be having difficulty getting stock. Neutral effect on the stock I would say.

[rivaldo] 04/3/2004 14:33

More small selling, yet the price has reversed a fall and is blue again. Watch out - someone wants your shares.

Sorry, in the absence of hard facts (other than that the forward P/E remains at only around 7) I'm perfectly happy to ramp for a bit.

[rivaldo] 03/3/2004 18:59

Eburne, thanks for that - can you give any hints as to price and EPS targets etc?

Another blue day today despite a few more small sells.

[eburne1960] 03/3/2004 17:28

Mentioned in Growth Company Investor at the weekend as a "speculative buy".

[40plus] 02/3/2004 13:38

2 Year view shows I think what the chartists say is a cup and handle formation. Nice to see technicals and fundamentals still showing positive . . .

In Charting Terms, target looks to be (2.40 - 0.70)+ 2.40 = 4.10 (PE around 10)

Still in for the long term ride . .

[scripophilist] 02/3/2004 13:29

Maybe Freddy has turned bullish?

It really annoys me when people come in and slate something say they are doing so well and when they get it wrong don't admit it. I don't hold HPS at all. But drifted into the thread ahead of the results. So have followed the story. I must admit I'm not keen on them as an investment. But you probably would have done OK speculating on then so far.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2004 12:56

Hmmm...100,000 shares bought at 280p in 4 lots of 25k. See my post 1007 above about my instinct on this one.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2004 12:17

Spec12, my wallet cares a great deal!

Still the same pattern for HPS. A few small sells, yet still the price ticks up. Now on an unbelievably high forward P/E of 7 - can HPS attain the giddy heights of a P/E of 8 d'ya think?

[spec12] 27/2/2004 15:45

Indeed and for the moment...who cares !