Hend.TR Pac.It Share Discussion Threads

[clancrackan] 23/12/2009 08:47

Posted this on HMS Board yesterday :

It is difficult to forsee the outlook for 2010 never mind beyond but some possibilities spring to mind :

Probability of the ongoing seismic shift in economic power from the
"developed" economies to China/India/all Asia in particular.

Probability of ongoing economic crisis in "developed" countries burdened by massive debts at all levels, government and personal.

Many unhappy possibilities are open in "developed" countries,
inflation/devaluation, stagflation/devaluation, recession/devaluation.

So having prospered well in Hallin now gone and Government Bonds in 2008/9, I have added to cash (euros/dollars/Sing $/pounds) now 20% of my portfolio pending weaker markets for reinvestment,, continue with a 10 year long term hold of gold but am going into 2010 with a more cautious portfolio having added part of Hallin proceeds :

High Yielding Asian Investment Trusts for growth and income
HFEL 4.1% Div, SOI 4.7% Div, AAIF 3.6% Div.

Asian Investment Trusts for growth.
SST 1.5% Div, HPI 1.5% Div, PHI 1.3% Div.

Chinese Investment Trust for growth
JMC 1.1% Div,

Indian Investment Trust for growth
JII No Div,

Energy/Mining/Commodity Investment Trust for growth and Income
BRCI 4.6% Div,

UK Shares for dividend and growth
BP. 6% Div, GSK 4.6% Div, BLT 3.0%

UK shares for dividend and growth
NBI 3.1% Div, FSJ 3.3% Div, plus sundry AIM stocks.

Indian Energy stocks for growth
KSK No Div, GKO No Div, OPG No Div,

Sundry Overseas stocks.

UK/US Government bonds.
Sold out in 2009 except for a few added inflation linked.

Realise this portfolio will not suit many but it suits me.

A very Happy Christmas to all and a healthy & prosperous 2010 and beyond

[energyi] 12/12/2009 04:14

Top : 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006
==== CURRENT YEAR ===
Mon : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR , - chg.% , mom%
dec : 150.54, -18.61% : 162.09, -19.23%, -2.56%
2009 -
jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44% / -2.79%, -2.60%
feb : 143.11, -18.67% : 154.61, -18.88% / -2.21%, -2.12%
mar : 140.04, -18.68% : 151.46, -18.62% / -2.15%, -2.04%
apr : 139.25, -18.08% : 150.43, -17.96% / -0.56%, -0.68% (( LOW ))
may : 139.94, -17.00% : 151.13, -16.76% / +0.50%, +0.46%
jun : 141.94, -15.44% : 153.32, -15.07% / +1.43%, +1.45%
jul : 144.23, -13.30% : 155.85, -12.77% / +1.61%, +1.65%
aug : 146.00, -11.28% : 157.93, -10.88% / +1.23%, +1.33%
sep : 146.51, - 9.31% : 158.61, - 8.45% / +0.35%, +0.43%
oct : 146.58, - 7.32% : 158.62, - 6.57% / +0.05%, +0.01%
nov : 146.28, - 5.38% : 158.49, - 4.55% / -0.20%, -0.08%
dec :
JULY=
.vs. the Top : -30.16% : 37mos -32.30%
L vs the Top : -32.57% : 34mos -33.52% (Max. Fall to Apr.09)

[energyi] 04/10/2009 08:41

, from Bamboo:
I have made some modifications to show possible cycle lows, as follows:


The 18 year cycle low is not due until 2010-12

[energyi] 10/9/2009 15:09

=== CURRENT YEAR, UK Data ===
Mo'Yr Hali.ns Na'wide M Ave.H&N AveHN AyoY%
Peak 201,081 186,044 P 192,490 (was Q3.2007)

Dec'6 183,645 173,746 D 178,696 -0.82% 9.40%
Mar'7 193,180 177,083 M 185,132 1.75% 10.24%
Jun'7 199,458 184,070 J 191,764 0.70% 11.23%
Sep'7 200,168 184,723 S 192,446 -0.02% 9.09%
Dec'7 195,333 182,080 D 188,707 -0.25% 5.60%
Mar'8 190,619 179,110 M 184,865 -0.83% -0.14%
Jun'8 181,765 172,415 J 177,090 -1.63% -7.65%
Sep'8 173,350 161,797 S 167,574 -1.45% -12.92%
Dec'8 158,437 153,048 D 155,743 -3.05% -17.47%
===
Jan'9 159,818 150,501 9 155,160 -0.37% -16.52%
Feb'9 159,208 147,746 F 153,477 -1.08% -17.66%
Mar'9 157,066 150,946 M 154,006 0.34% -16.69%
Apr'9 157,156 151,861 A 154,509 0.33% -16.37%
May'9 160,869 154,016 M 157,443 1.90% -12.55%
Jun'9 158,807 156,442 J 157,625 0.12% -10.99%
Jul'9 160,686 158,871 J 159,778 1.37% - 8.11%
Aug'9 161,930 160,224 A 161,077 0.81% - 3.88%

== == ==
DrBubb's House price predictions from HPC and GEI



M Hali.ns Na'wide Rt'move Delus% Ave.H&N Amom% AyoY%
9 159,818 150,501 213,570 137.6% 155,160 -0.37% -16.52%
F 159,208 147,746 216,163 140.8% 153,477 -1.08% -17.66%
M 157,066 150,946 218,081 141.6% 154,006 0.34% -16.69%
A 157,156 151,861 222,077 143.7% 154,509 0.33% -16.37%
M 160,869 154,016 227,441 144.5% 157,443 1.90% -12.55%
J 158,807 156,442 226,436 143.7% 157,625 0.12% -10.99%
J 160,686 158,871 227,864 142.6% 159,779 1.37% -8.11%
A 161,930 160,224 222,762 138.3% 161,077 0.81% -5.27%
S 164,854 161,816 223,996 137.1% 163,335 1.40% -2.53%
O 165,430 162,038 230,184 140.6% 163,734 0.24% 0.13%
N 165,617 162,764 226,440 137.9% 164,191 0.28% 2.21%
D 1xx,xxx 162,103 221,263 RM-2.2%



? 165,617 162,764 226,440 Latest 164,191
L 157,066 147,746 213,570 Low .. 153,477
t .Mar'09 .Feb'09 .Jan'09 Timing .Feb'09
% + 5.44% 10.16% + 6.03% Rally% + 6.98%
H 201,081 186,044 241,642 Peak . 192,490
t .Aug'07 .Oct'07 .Oct'07 Timing .Aug'07
% -17.64% -12.51% -6.29% Rally% -14.70%

/see:
/GEI:

[energyi] 11/8/2009 02:10

"Is the recent london bounce of the dead cat variety?"
The UK peak came 3-4 months after that wonderful post

cc

And now, in summer 2009, we are into a genuine Dead Cat bounce,
not just a Long cycle peaking formation

[energyi] 01/8/2009 01:49

=====: HPI NSA : -1 year- : -4 year- :-Longest- // BDEV : MtgAprv
Dec-06: 183,645 : 20x,xxx : 20x,xxx : NotAvail // 1235.0 : 115.00
Mar-07: 193,180 : 20x,xxx : 20x,xxx : NotAvail // 1105.0 : 114.00
July-07: 200,578 : 20x,xxx : 20x,xxx : NotAvail // 935.00 : 112.00
Aug-07: 201,081 : 198,572 : 205,592 : NotAvail // 928.50 : 106.00
Sep-07 : 200,168 : 195,164 : 199,167 : 327,275 // 748.00 : 100.00
Oct-07 : 197,817 : 195,164 : 191,160 : 311,261 // 652.50 : 89,000
Nov-07 : 194,258 : 183,970 : 183,970 : 397,612 // 465.25 : 83,000
Dec-07 : 195,333 : 174,823 : 178,730 : 389,689 // 455.50 : 72,000
Jan-08 : 191,275 : 169,278 : 173,104 : 381,594 // 422.00 : 73,000
Feb-08 : 193,448 : 176,929 : 174,060 : 381,594 // 422.50 : 72,000
Mar-08 : 190,619 : 176,323 : 168,698 : 495,609 // 413.50 : 64,000
Apr-08 : 190,952 : 163,264 : 158,490 : 473,561 // 275.25 : 58,000
May-08: 186,482 : 165,173 : 154,671 : 469,561 // 182.50 : 42,000
=====: HPI NSA : -1 year- : -3 year- : -5 year- // BDEV.L : MtgAprv
Jun.-08: 181,765 : 157,577 : 142,659 : 153,848 // 058.00 : 36,000
July-08: 178,440 : 153,591 : 137,233 : 153,591 // 095.00 : 33,000
Aug-08: 178,408 : 140,075 : 150,782 : 150,782 // 147.00 : 32,000
Sep-08: 173,350 : 144,712 : 138,572 : 145,589 // 104.75 : 33,000
Oct-08 : 168,158 : 134,346 : 117,011 : 128,279 // 077.00 : 32,000
Nov-08: 162,848 : 123,764 : 109,108 : 119,693 // 046.25 : 27,000
Dec-08: 158,437 : 126,750 : 109,322 : 124,075 // 070.00 : 31,000
Jan-09 : 159,818 : 127,854 : 110,274 : 115,069 // 069.50 : 31,000
Feb-09 : 159,208 : 128,258 : 111,873 : 119,864 // 085.50 : 37,937
Mar-09 : 157,066 : 125,774 : 117,814 : 124,182 // 088.75 : 39,230
Apr.-09 : 157,156 : 127,296 : 125,725 : 130,439 // 140.50 : 43,201
May-09 : 160,869 : 148,804 : 144,782 : 150,413 // 158.50 : 43,414
Jun.-09 : 158,807 : 147,195 : 143,173 : 148,804 // 147.50 :
July-09 : 160-,xxx : ???-,??? : ???-,??? : ???-,??? // 198.50 :

Mtg.Approvals ::
Old format
=== -Aug07- : -Sep07- : -Oct07- : -Nov07-
Spot 200,578 : 200,168 : 200,168 : 197,817
2008 198,572 : 195,164 : 195,164 : 183,970
2009 200,578 : 196,165 : 195,164 : 182,981
2010 203,586 : 196,165 : 191,160 : 183,970
2011 205,592 : 199,167 : 191,160 : 183,970
2012 208,601 : 202,170 : 191,160 : 183,970
2013 214,618 : 206,173 : 198,166 : 185,948

[energyi] 31/7/2009 03:27

Property Forward Prices
Forward residential levels were unchanged to slightly off during June as the upward re-alignment of the curve paused. The average UK house is currently £160,869, that same house is worth £143,173 by 2011 and begins to recover to £148,804 by 2013.

The next Halifax HPI is due out by 10th July latest whereupon the forward prices will reset.
/see:

=====: HPI NSA : -1 year- : -3 year- : -5 year- :
Jan-09 : 159,818 : 127,854 : 110,274 : 115,069
Feb-09 : 159,208 : 128,258 : 111,873 : 119,864
Mar-09 : 157,066 : 125,774 : 117,814 : 124,182
Apr.-09 : 157,156 : 127,296 : 125,725 : 130,439
May-09 : 160,869 : 148,804 : 144,782 : 150,413
Jun.-09 : 158,807 : 147,195 : 143,173 : 148,804

[bamboo2] 29/7/2009 01:21

Song Lyrics For Living In America by James Brown

Yeah, uh! Get up, now! Ow! Knock out this!

Super highways, coast to coast,
easy to get anywhere
On the transcontinental overload,
just slide behind the wheel
How does it feel

When there's no destination - that's too far
And somewhere on the way,
you might find out who you are

Chorus:
Living in America - eye to eye, station to station
Living in America - hand to hand, across the nation
Living in America - got to have a celebration

Rock my soul

Smokestack, fatback,
many miles of railroad track
All night radio, keep on runnin'
through your rock 'n' roll soul
All night diners keep you awake,
hey, on black coffee and a hard roll

You might have to walk the fine line,
you might take the hard line
But everybody's working overtime

(chorus)

I live in America, help me out,
but I live in America,
wait a minute

You might not be looking for the promised land,
but you might find it anyway
Under one of those old familiar names
Like New Orleans (New Orleans),
Detroit City (Detroit City), Dallas (Dallas)
Pittsburg P.A. (Pittsburg P.A.),
New York City (New York City)
Kansas City (Kansas City),
Atlanta (Atlanta), Chicago and L.A.

Living in America - hit me
Living in America - yeah,
I walk in and out
Living in America

I live in America - state lines,
gonna make the prime, that
I live in America - hey,
I know what it means, I

Living in America - Eddie Murphy, eat your heart out
Living in America - hit me, I said now, eye to eye,
station to station
Living in America - so nice, with your bare self
Living in America - I feel good!

[energyi] 01/7/2009 16:59

=== CURRENT YEAR, UK Data ===
Mo : Halifax, Nat'wde, Ave.H&N - chg.%, mom%
Top: 201,081, 186,044: 192,490 (08/07) - Q3.'07
dec: 158,437, 153,048: 155,743 -17.47%, - 3.05%
2009 -
jan : 159,818, 150,501 : 155,160 -16.52%, - 0.37%
feb : 159,208, 147,746 : 153,477 -17.66%, - 1.08%
mar: 157,066, 150,946 : 154,066 -16.69%, +0.34%
apr : 157,156, 151,861 : 154,509 -16.37%, +0.33%
may 160,869, 154,016 : 157,443 -12.55%, +1.89%
Jun'9 158,807 156,442 J 157,625 -10.99% +0.12%
Jul'9 160,686 158,871 J 159,778 - 8.11% + 1.37%
. . .
Top : -21.02% -15.91% : 22mos -18.11% (vs.June)
Peak 201,081 186,044 P 192,490 (was Q3.2007)

[energyi] 01/7/2009 16:27

Top: 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006
=== CURRENT YEAR ===
Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom%
dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31%
2009 -
jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56%
feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13%
mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10%
apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67%
may:
jun :
.vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56%

===
6,7-06
237.68 278.22 226.29 206.38
238.09 278.33 226.17 206.52


156.04 165.01 162.11 150.56 94.6% 96.3%
9 149.21 159.04 157.96 146.34 9 93.8% 94.5%
145.25 154.28 154.60 143.10 94.1% 94.0%
141.37 148.77 151.36 139.97 95.0% 93.4%
140.41 145.77 150.34 139.18 96.3% 93.4%

Top: 6,7 '06:
237.68 20.90% 278.22 19.19% 226.29 8.35%
238.09 18.07% 278.33 16.47% 226.17 6.86%

156.04 -22.03% 165.01 -28.79% 162.11 -19.22%
9 149.21 -23.34% 159.04 -29.44% 157.96 -19.44%
145.25 -22.98% 154.28 -29.47% 154.60 -18.89%
141.37 -22.43% 148.77 -28.78% 151.36 -18.68%
140.41 -21.34% 145.77 -27.27% 150.34 -18.01%
:: - 41.0% , xxxxxx, -47.6% , xxxxxx, -33.6%

[energyi] 24/6/2009 01:09

NEW THREAD: LONG TERM UK PROPERTY PRICES


QUOTE /G0ldfinger/ ============

Things, periodically, become over- or undervalued. You just have to find out when exactly what is the case. It's not really rocket science. Here, a long term chart that shows you when houses are over/undervalued with respect to gold. It's easy, isn't it? :lol:


UNQUOTE ===================

That's a great chart. I always like seeing it, when it is updated.
Maybe we should start a thread here (something like this one) on Long term House prices.
Anyone else interested in that idea?

(We went ahead and started the thread- see link at top)

==
2009 DATA
Mo'Yr Halif.ns Na'wide M Ave.H&N Ave.HN AyoY%
Jan'9 159,818, 150,501 9 155,160 -0.37% -16.52%
Feb'9 159,208, 147,746 F 153,477 -1.08% -17.66%
Mar'9 157,066, 150,946 M 154,006 +0.34% -16.69%
Apr'9 157,156, 151,861 A 154,509 +0.33% -16.37%
May'9 160,869, 154,016 M 157,443 +x.xx%
Jun'9 ===,--- : ===,--- J ---,---
July'9 ===,--- : ===,--- J ---,---
==
Latest: Spline :

[energyi] 01/6/2009 00:41

Mo'Yr Hali.ns Na'wide M Ave.H&N AveHN AyoY% N.chg NyoY% H.chg HyoY% Nseas
Dec'3 140,658 135,444 D 138,051 ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----
Jan'4 142,105 134,806 4 138,455 0.29% ----- -0.47% ----- 1.03% ----- 0.61%
Feb'4 145,820 138,730 F 142,275 2.76% ----- 2.91% ----- 2.61% ----- 2.64%
Mar'4 149,816 142,584 M 146,200 2.76% ----- 2.78% ----- 2.74% ----- 1.45%
Apr'4 154,433 145,918 A 150,175 2.72% ----- 2.34% ----- 3.08% ----- 1.80%
May'4 159,103 149,020 M 154,061 2.59% ----- 2.13% ----- 3.02% ----- 1.70%
Jun'4 161,968 151,524 J 156,746 1.74% ----- 1.68% ----- 1.80% ----- 0.83%
Jul'4 163,505 154,299 J 158,902 1.38% ----- 1.83% ----- 0.95% ----- 1.87%
Aug'4 161,565 153,743 A 157,654 -0.79% ----- -0.36% ----- -1.19% ----- 0.11%
Sep'4 163,423 153,727 S 158,575 0.58% ----- -0.01% ----- 1.15% ----- 0.39%
Oct'4 162,241 152,159 O 157,200 -0.87% ----- -1.02% ----- -0.72% ----- -0.05%
Nov'4 160,658 153,439 N 157,048 -0.10% ----- 0.84% ----- -0.98% ----- 0.91%
Dec'4 160,563 152,623 D 156,593 -0.29% ----- -0.53% ----- -0.06% ----- -0.15%
Jan'5 159,956 151,757 5 155,857 -0.47% 12.57% -0.57% 12.57% -0.38% 12.57% 0.06%
Feb'5 159,750 152,879 F 156,314 0.29% 9.87% 0.74% 10.20% -0.13% 9.87% 0.58%
Mar'5 161,809 153,876 M 157,843 0.98% 7.96% 0.65% 7.92% 1.29% 7.96% -0.28%
Apr'5 163,428 156,128 A 159,778 1.23% 6.39% 1.46% 7.00% 1.00% 6.39% 0.57%
May'5 164,242 157,272 M 160,757 0.61% 4.35% 0.73% 5.54% 0.50% 4.35% 0.50%
Jun'5 165,501 157,791 J 161,646 0.55% 3.13% 0.33% 4.14% 0.77% 3.13% -0.11%
Jul'5 165,775 158,348 J 162,061 0.26% 1.99% 0.35% 2.62% 0.17% 1.99% 0.22%
Aug'5 167,699 157,310 A 162,504 0.27% 3.08% -0.66% 2.32% 1.16% 3.08% 0.12%
Sep'5 169,465 156,517 S 162,991 0.30% 2.78% -0.50% 1.81% 1.05% 2.78% -0.21%
Oct'5 169,010 157,107 O 163,059 0.04% 3.73% 0.38% 3.25% -0.27% 3.73% 0.87%
Nov'5 169,891 157,139 N 163,515 0.28% 4.12% 0.02% 2.41% 0.52% 4.12% 0.06%
Dec'5 169,438 157,250 D 163,344 -0.10% 4.31% 0.07% 3.03% -0.27% 4.31% 0.64%
Jan'6 166,744 158,478 6 162,611 -0.45% 4.33% 0.78% 4.43% -1.59% 4.33% 1.29%
Feb'6 170,440 158,573 F 164,506 1.17% 5.24% 0.06% 3.72% 2.22% 5.24% -0.08%
Mar'6 173,778 162,083 M 167,930 2.08% 6.39% 2.21% 5.33% 1.96% 6.39% 1.37%
Apr'6 179,609 163,573 A 171,591 2.18% 7.39% 0.92% 4.77% 3.36% 7.39% -0.09%
May'6 180,680 164,632 M 172,656 0.62% 7.40% 0.65% 4.68% 0.60% 7.40% 0.52%
Jun'6 179,082 165,730 J 172,406 -0.14% 6.66% 0.67% 5.03% -0.88% 6.66% 0.31%
Jul'6 179,470 167,733 J 173,602 0.69% 7.12% 1.21% 5.93% 0.22% 7.12% 1.11%
Aug'6 181,122 167,721 A 174,422 0.47% 7.33% -0.01% 6.62% 0.92% 7.33% 0.83%
Sep'6 183,402 169,413 S 176,408 1.14% 8.23% 1.01% 8.24% 1.26% 8.23% 1.22%
Oct'6 185,466 169,623 O 177,545 0.64% 8.88% 0.12% 7.97% 1.13% 8.88% 0.50%
Nov'6 188,172 172,185 N 180,179 1.48% 10.19% 1.51% 9.58% 1.46% 10.19% 1.50%
Dec'6 183,645 173,746 D 178,696 -0.82% 9.40% 0.91% 10.49% -2.41% 9.40% 1.58%
Jan'7 184,067 173,225 7 178,646 -0.03% 9.86% -0.30% 9.31% 0.23% 9.86% 0.11%
Feb'7 189,197 174,706 F 181,952 1.85% 10.60% 0.85% 10.17% 2.79% 10.60% 0.76%
Mar'7 193,180 177,083 M 185,132 1.75% 10.24% 1.36% 9.25% 2.11% 10.24% 0.55%
Apr'7 198,206 180,314 A 189,260 2.23% 10.30% 1.82% 10.23% 2.60% 10.30% 0.72%
May'7 199,264 181,584 M 190,424 0.62% 10.29% 0.70% 10.30% 0.53% 10.29% 0.70%
Jun'7 199,458 184,070 J 191,764 0.70% 11.23% 1.37% 11.07% 0.10% 11.23% 1.03%
Jul'7 200,578 184,270 J 192,424 0.34% 10.84% 0.11% 9.86% 0.56% 10.84% 0.05%
Aug'7 201,081 183,898 A 192,490 0.03% 10.36% -0.20% 9.65% 0.25% 10.36% 0.67%
Sep'7 200,168 184,723 S 192,446 -0.02% 9.09% 0.45% 9.04% -0.45% 9.09% 0.55%
Oct'7 197,817 186,044 O 191,931 -0.27% 8.10% 0.72% 9.68% -1.17% 8.10% 1.05%
Nov'7 194,258 184,099 N 189,179 -1.43% 5.00% -1.05% 6.92% -1.80% 5.00% -1.16%
Dec'7 195,333 182,080 D 188,707 -0.25% 5.60% -1.10% 4.80% 0.55% 5.60% -0.35%
Jan'8 191,275 180,473 8 185,874 -1.50% 4.05% -0.88% 4.18% -2.08% 4.05% -0.51%
Feb'8 193,448 179,358 F 186,403 0.28% 2.45% -0.62% 2.66% 1.14% 2.45% -0.66%
Mar'8 190,619 179,110 M 184,865 -0.83% -0.14% -0.14% 1.14% -1.46% -0.14% -0.93%
Apr'8 190,952 178,555 A 184,754 -0.06% -2.38% -0.31% -0.98% 0.17% -2.38% -1.44%
May'8 186,482 173,583 M 180,033 -2.56% -5.46% -2.78% -4.41% -2.34% -5.46% -2.68%
Jun'8 181,765 172,415 J 177,090 -1.63% -7.65% -0.67% -6.33% -2.53% -7.65% -1.07%
Jul'8 178,440 169,316 J 173,878 -1.81% -9.64% -1.80% -8.12% -1.83% -9.64% -1.77%
Aug'8 175,408 164,654 A 170,031 -2.21% -11.67% -2.75% -10.46% -1.70% -11.67% -1.91%
Sep'8 173,350 161,797 S 167,574 -1.45% -12.92% -1.74% -12.41% -1.17% -12.92% -1.71%
Oct'8 168,158 158,872 O 163,515 -2.42% -14.81% -1.81% -14.61% -3.00% -14.81% -1.52%
Nov'8 162,848 158,442 N 160,645 -1.76% -15.08% -0.27% -13.94% -3.16% -15.08% -0.42%
Dec'8 158,437 153,048 D 155,743 -3.05% -17.47% -3.40% -15.94% -2.71% -17.47% -2.63%
Jan'9 159,818 150,501 9 155,160 -0.37% -16.52% -1.66% -16.61% 0.87% -16.52% -1.29%
Feb'9 159,208 147,746 F 153,477 -1.08% -17.66% -1.83% -17.63% -0.38% -17.66% -1.83%
Mar'9 157,066 150,946 M 154,006 0.34% -16.69% 2.17% -15.72% -1.35% -16.69% 1.22%
Apr'9 157,156 151,861 A 154,509 0.33% -16.37% 0.61% -14.95% 0.06% -16.37% -0.33%
May'9 ---,--- 154,016 M ---,--- -.-- % -.-- % 1.42% -11.27% -.-- % -.-- % 1.23%
Jun'9 ---,--- ---,--- J ---,---
Jul'9 ---,--- ---,--- J ---,---

[energyi] 29/3/2009 15:07

CSXR SPCS20R
January 1987 62.82
February 1987 63.39
March 1987 63.87
April 1987 64.57
May 1987 65.56
June 1987 66.59
July 1987 67.54
August 1987 68.25
September 1987 68.87
October 1987 69.42
November 1987 69.76
December 1987 70.22
January 1988 70.45
February 1988 70.77
March 1988 71.12
April 1988 71.65
May 1988 72.48
June 1988 73.63
July 1988 74.81
August 1988 75.70
September 1988 76.40
October 1988 76.90
November 1988 77.28
December 1988 77.58
January 1989 77.99
February 1989 78.36
March 1989 79.12
April 1989 79.83
May 1989 80.52
June 1989 81.24
July 1989 81.66
August 1989 82.08
September 1989 82.25
October 1989 82.44
November 1989 82.43
December 1989 82.35
January 1990 82.29
February 1990 82.15
March 1990 82.02
April 1990 82.05
May 1990 82.01
June 1990 82.19
July 1990 82.10
August 1990 81.86
September 1990 81.39
October 1990 80.84
November 1990 80.09
December 1990 79.38
January 1991 78.53
February 1991 77.77
March 1991 77.00
April 1991 76.86
May 1991 77.31
June 1991 78.02
July 1991 78.61
August 1991 78.93
September 1991 78.88
October 1991 78.68
November 1991 78.31
December 1991 77.99
January 1992 77.74
February 1992 77.51
March 1992 77.31
April 1992 77.36
May 1992 77.62
June 1992 77.94
July 1992 77.95
August 1992 77.99
September 1992 77.76
October 1992 77.45
November 1992 77.09
December 1992 76.68
January 1993 76.56
February 1993 76.28
March 1993 75.91
April 1993 75.83
May 1993 76.04
June 1993 76.51
July 1993 76.61
August 1993 76.59
September 1993 76.47
October 1993 76.22
November 1993 76.02
December 1993 75.71
January 1994 75.71
February 1994 75.63
March 1994 75.73
April 1994 76.03
May 1994 76.49
June 1994 77.04
July 1994 77.40
August 1994 77.64
September 1994 77.57
October 1994 77.50
November 1994 77.23
December 1994 76.99
January 1995 76.82
February 1995 76.64
March 1995 76.38
April 1995 76.36
May 1995 76.60
June 1995 76.94
July 1995 77.26
August 1995 77.47
September 1995 77.43
October 1995 77.26
November 1995 76.95
December 1995 76.68
January 1996 76.56
February 1996 76.44
March 1996 76.49
April 1996 76.84
May 1996 77.33
June 1996 77.78
July 1996 78.10
August 1996 78.36
September 1996 78.37
October 1996 78.36
November 1996 78.23
December 1996 78.12
January 1997 78.08
February 1997 77.98
March 1997 78.29
April 1997 78.76
May 1997 79.42
June 1997 80.25
July 1997 80.86
August 1997 81.41
September 1997 81.57
October 1997 81.83
November 1997 81.98
December 1997 82.31
January 1998 82.70
February 1998 83.13
March 1998 83.87
April 1998 84.69
May 1998 85.77
June 1998 87.03
July 1998 88.14
August 1998 89.01
September 1998 89.58
October 1998 89.80
November 1998 89.76
December 1998 89.82
January 1999 90.06
February 1999 90.48
March 1999 91.31
April 1999 92.55
May 1999 93.69
June 1999 95.10
July 1999 96.28
August 1999 97.31
September 1999 97.99
October 1999 98.48
November 1999 98.94
December 1999 99.51
January 2000 100.00 100.00
February 2000 100.81 100.76
March 2000 102.24 101.95
April 2000 104.01 103.50
May 2000 105.98 105.20
June 2000 107.83 106.76
July 2000 109.02 107.77
August 2000 110.07 108.64
September 2000 110.90 109.35
October 2000 111.75 110.04
November 2000 112.60 110.81
December 2000 113.56 111.58
January 2001 114.58 112.39
February 2001 115.45 113.07
March 2001 116.69 114.14
April 2001 117.94 115.29
May 2001 118.94 116.24
June 2001 120.03 117.29
July 2001 121.01 118.20
August 2001 121.99 119.09
September 2001 122.89 119.84
October 2001 123.46 120.31
November 2001 123.78 120.53
December 2001 123.64 120.43
January 2002 123.93 120.64
February 2002 124.45 121.06
March 2002 125.92 122.30
April 2002 127.95 123.92
May 2002 130.33 125.86
June 2002 132.76 127.82
July 2002 135.04 129.66
August 2002 137.04 131.22
September 2002 138.62 132.43
October 2002 140.12 133.55
November 2002 141.26 134.41
December 2002 142.18 135.15
January 2003 142.86 135.64
February 2003 143.59 136.19
March 2003 144.84 137.20
April 2003 146.45 138.56
May 2003 148.17 140.06
June 2003 149.70 141.39
July 2003 151.65 142.99
August 2003 153.61 144.56
September 2003 155.77 146.28
October 2003 157.71 147.82
November 2003 159.55 149.22
December 2003 161.27 150.49
January 2004 162.90 151.69
February 2004 164.82 153.10
March 2004 167.91 155.49
April 2004 171.58 158.47
May 2004 175.43 161.60
June 2004 179.45 164.82
July 2004 182.69 167.43
August 2004 184.95 169.31
September 2004 186.91 170.96
October 2004 188.65 172.41
November 2004 190.08 173.65
December 2004 191.42 174.83
January 2005 193.35 176.44
February 2005 195.87 178.50
March 2005 199.21 181.30
April 2005 202.51 184.24
May 2005 205.76 187.21
June 2005 208.86 190.10
July 2005 211.65 192.67
August 2005 214.13 194.98
September 2005 216.77 197.36
October 2005 219.07 199.40
November 2005 220.81 200.97
December 2005 221.91 201.97
January 2006 222.46 202.44
February 2006 223.38 203.19
March 2006 223.75 203.65
April 2006 224.99 204.82
May 2006 225.99 205.86
June 2006 226.29 206.38
July 2006 226.17 206.52
August 2006 225.54 206.18
September 2006 225.09 205.80
October 2006 224.74 205.41
November 2006 223.94 204.65
December 2006 222.39 203.33
January 2007 221.31 202.31
February 2007 220.46 201.57
March 2007 219.67 201.01
April 2007 218.94 200.53
May 2007 218.34 200.12
June 2007 217.37 199.44
July 2007 216.30 198.71
August 2007 214.63 197.37
September 2007 212.72 195.69
October 2007 209.76 192.98
November 2007 205.25 188.94
December 2007 200.67 184.97
January 2008 196.07 180.69
February 2008 190.60 175.96
March 2008 186.12 172.20
April 2008 183.36 169.98
May 2008 181.56 168.60
June 2008 180.52 167.77
July 2008 178.67 166.36
August 2008 176.72 164.65
September 2008 173.36 161.64
October 2008 169.70 158.11
November 2008 166.00 154.55
December 2008 162.17 150.66

[energyi] 29/3/2009 11:39

(20 comp)/ 10com
2005
jan :
feb :
mar :
apr :
may :
jun :
jul :
aug :
sep :
oct :
nov :
dec :
2006
jan : 202.44 , 222.46
feb : 203.19 , 223.38
mar : 203.65 , 223.75
apr : 204.82 , 224.99
may : 205.86 , 225.99
jun : 206.38 , 226.29 (( Peak-C.10 ))
jul : 206.52 , 226.17 (( Peak-C.20 ))
aug : 206.18 , 225.54
sep : 205.80 , 225.09
oct : 205.41 , 224.74
nov : 204.42 , 223.58
dec : 203.07 , 222.01
2007
jan : 202.03 , 220.90
feb : 201.19 , 219.94
mar : 200.89 , 219.54
apr : 200.53 , 218.94
may : 200.04 , 218.37
jun : 199.18 , 217.07
jul : 198.44 , 215.94
aug : 197.16 , 214.56
sep : 195.62 , 212.65
oct : 192.89 , 209.68
nov : 188.82 , 205.09
dec : 184.86 , 200.55
2008
jan : 180.65 , 196.06
feb : 175.94 , 190.58
mar : 172.16 , 186.06
apr : 169.85 , 183.15
may : 168.54 , 181.48
jun : 167.69 , 180.38
jul : 166.23 , 178.46
aug : 164.57 , 176.60
sep : 161.56 , 173.25
oct : 158.16 , 169.78
nov : 154.59 , 166.05
dec : 150.66 , 162.17

"
The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded an 18.2% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 versus the 4th quarter of 2007, the largest in the series' 21-year history. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively. "

[energyi] 29/3/2009 09:20

US HOUSE PRICES

/source:

House Price Index / US : Case-Shiller
Overall, 20-Composite (blue) vs. NYC (green) and SF, CA.(red)


, from Bamboo:
I have made some modifications to show possible cycle lows, as follows:

The 18 year cycle low is not due until 2010-12
== ==

Top : 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006
==== CURRENT YEAR ===
Mon : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR10 - chg.% ,/ + mom%, Exist. : New ..
dec : 150.54, -18.61% : 162.09, -19.23%,/ -2.56%, Home $ : Home $
2009 -
jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44% / -2.79%, -2.55%
feb : 143.11, -18.67% : 154.61, -18.88% / -2.21%, -2.12%
mar : 140.04, -18.66% : 151.48, -18.61% / -2.13%, -2.02%
apr : 139.26, -18.07% : 150.44, -17.95% / -0.57%, -0.69% (( LOW ))
may : 139.98, -16.98% : 151.19, -16.73% / +0.52%, +0.50%
jun : 141.98, -15.38% : 153.36, -15.05% / +1.43%, +1.44%
jul : 144.37, -13.22% : 156.02, -12.68% / +1.68%, +1.73%
aug : 146.17, -11.22% : 158.15, -10.50% / +1.25%, +1.37%
sep : 146.69, - 9.25% : 158.85, - 8.36% / +0.36%, +0.44%
oct : 146.51, - 7.32% : 158.72, - 6.45% / -0.12%, -0.08%
nov : 146.18, - 5.39% : 158.34, - 4.59% / -0.23%, -0.24%
dec : 145.90. - 3.08% : 158.16, - 2.42% / -0.19%, -0.11%
===

Mon.: comp20, YroYr%: + mom % / CSXR10: YronYr% : mom%/ Aver. Exist. Homes : New ..
dec : 145.90, -3.08% : -0.19% / 158.16, -2.42% : - X.XX% / $189.7K :
2010 -
jan : 145.31, -0.70% : -0.40% / 157.87, - 0.06% : -0.18% / $188.9k : 163.8k : 215.8k
feb : 144.06, +0.66% : -0.86% / 156.85, + 1.45% : -0.65% / $187.3k : 163.9k : 221.6k
mar : 143.35, +2.35% : -0.49% / 156.22, + 3.13% : -0.40% / $186.4k : 170.7k : 214.0k
apr : 144.57, +3.81% : +0.85% / 157.36, + 4.60% : +0.73% / $187.9k
may : 146.47, +4.64% : +1.31% / 159.41, + 5.44% : +1.30% / $190.4k
jun : 148.00, +4.25% : +1.04% / 161.07, + 5.03% : +1.04% / $192.4k
jul : 148.91, +3.18% : +0.61% / 162.28, + 4.06% : +0.75% / $193.6k
aug : 148.59, +1.70% : -0.21% / 162.13, + 2.57% : -0.09% / $193.3k
sep : 147.49, +0.55% : -0.74% / 161.25, + 1.51% : -0.54% / $191.7k

Note: "Average" is Comp20 x $1300


Sources
RE.ind.:
IndexCS:
========
JULY=
.vs. the Top : -30.16% : 37mos -32.30%
L vs the Top : -32.57% : 34mos -33.52% (Max. Fall to Apr.09)

+ + + + +

HISTORICAL CYCLES (per Northern Trust)
Recession ===== : Peak of Median Price : Trough, Median Price : P-to-Tr.
=============== : -Date- : Price $ ... : -Date- : Price $ ... : Change
Dec.69 - Nov.70 : Jul-70 : $ 23,700 .. : Oct-70 : $ 22,700 .. : - 4.22%
Nov.73 - Mar.75 : Jul-74 : $ 33,000 .. : Oct-74 : $ 31,900 .. : - 3.33%
Jan.80 - Jul.80 : Jun-79 : $ 56,800 .. : Nov-79 : $ 55,600 .. : - 2.11%
Jul.81 - Nov.82 : Jun-82 : $ 69,400 .. : Oct-82 : $ 66,900 .. : - 3.60%
Jul.90 - Mar.91 : Jun-90 : $101,200 .. : Dec-90 : $ 94,200 .. : - 6.92%
Mar.01 - Nov.01 : Jun-01 : $160,800 .. : Oct-01 : $153,800 .. : - 4.35%

Current Cycle.. : Jul-06 : $230,900 .. : Oct-08 : $181,800 .. : -21.26%
Updated Cycle.. : Jul-06 : $230,900 .. : Dec-08 : $173,400Est : -24.90%Est
= = = =
*CS Index, 20.C : Jul-06 : CS206.52 .. : Oct-08 : CS158.16 .. : -23.42%
*CS Index, 20.C : Jul-06 : CS206.52 .. : Dec-08 : CS150.66 .. : -27.05%
*CS Index, 10.C : Jun-06 : CS226.29 .. : Dec-08 : CS162.17 .. : -28.34%
*CS Index, 20.C : Jul-06 : CS206.52 .. : Jan-09 : CS146.40 .. : -29.11%
*CS Index, 10.C : Jun-06 : CS226.29 .. : Jan-09 : CS158.04 .. : -30.16%

CS: Jan.09 : 158.04, 146.40

/see:
US Home Prices / source: House prices forecast to fall in 2010




Rate of Change

Description:
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National Home Price, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded an 18.2% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 versus the 4th quarter of 2007, the largest in the series' 21-year history. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.

"The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor's. "There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and eight of those MSA's now with negative rates exceeding 20%. If one looks in detail at the annual return data, it can be seen that 13 of the 20 MSA's and the two composites have been reporting consecutive record declines since December 2007. The monthly data follows a similar trend, with all of the metro areas reporting at least four consecutive months of negative returns."
Cities


Month======
January. 2000 100.00 100.00
February 2000 100.81 100.76
(more RAW data back to 2000 and earlier - in post #2)


2006
jan : 202.44 , 222.46
feb : 203.19 , 223.38
mar : 203.65 , 223.75
apr : 204.82 , 224.99
may : 205.86 , 225.99
jun : 206.38 , 226.29 (( Peak-C.10 ))
jul : 206.52 , 226.17 (( Peak-C.20 ))
aug : 206.18 , 225.54
sep : 205.80 , 225.09
oct : 205.41 , 224.74
nov : 204.42 , 223.58
dec : 203.07 , 222.01
2007
jan : 202.03 , 220.90
feb : 201.19 , 219.94
mar : 200.89 , 219.54
apr : 200.53 , 218.94
may : 200.04 , 218.37
jun : 199.18 , 217.07
jul : 198.44 , 215.94
aug : 197.16 , 214.56
sep : 195.62 , 212.65
oct : 192.89 , 209.68
nov : 188.82 , 205.09
dec : 184.86 , 200.55
2008
jan : 180.65 , 196.06
feb : 175.94 , 190.58
mar : 172.16 , 186.06
apr : 169.85 , 183.15
may : 168.54 , 181.48
jun : 167.69 , 180.38
jul : 166.23 , 178.46
aug : 164.57 , 176.60
sep : 161.56 , 173.25
oct : 158.16 , 169.78
nov : 154.59 , 166.05
dec : 150.66 , 162.17
2009
jan : 146.34 , 157.96
feb : 143.11 , 154.61
mar : 140.04 , 151.46
apr : 139.25 , 150.43
may : 139.94 , 151.13
jun : 141.94 , 153.32
jul : 144.23 , 155.85
aug : 146.00 , 157.93
sep : 146.51 , 158.61
oct : 146.58 , 158.62
nov : 146.28 , 158.49
dec :

"
The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded an 18.2% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 versus the 4th quarter of 2007, the largest in the series' 21-year history. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.


= = = = =
LINKS:
C-S Home Price indices :
USA Local markets ::
x
y
z
Blog on Case-Shiller :

[energyi] 29/3/2009 09:11

You want to see more on this topic?

And contribute to a more lively discussion?

TRY:

The "Global Brownout" pathway to rising inflation
"Nothing so dangerous as a losing strategy..."
=================================


There is "Nothing so dangerous as a losing strategy... that looks as if it is working when it is first tried." And that is just what the UK's faltering Prime Minister, Mr. Brown, will try to foist on the world at this week's G20 meeting.

[rhiannon] 28/3/2009 12:33

Energyi wouldlike to compliment you, on every thread you create you do a BRILLIANT job