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| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Amount | Ex-Dividend Date | Record Date | Payment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/3/2024 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.06 | 09/5/2024 | 10/5/2024 | 07/6/2024 | |
| 05/9/2023 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.04 | 26/10/2023 | 27/10/2023 | 28/11/2023 | |
| 08/3/2023 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.112 | 11/5/2023 | 12/5/2023 | 02/6/2023 | |
| 06/9/2022 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.062 | 27/10/2022 | 28/10/2022 | 28/11/2022 | |
| 09/3/2022 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.086 | 05/5/2022 | 06/5/2022 | 27/5/2022 | |
| 09/3/2022 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.177 | 05/5/2022 | 06/5/2022 | 27/5/2022 | |
| 02/9/2021 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.058 | 28/10/2021 | 29/10/2021 | 29/11/2021 | |
| 09/3/2021 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.02 | 06/5/2021 | 07/5/2021 | 28/5/2021 | |
| 05/3/2020 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.00 | 04/6/2020 | 05/6/2020 | 01/7/2020 | |
| 28/8/2019 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.0755 | 28/11/2019 | 29/11/2019 | 02/1/2020 | |
| 16/1/2019 | Dividend income or Cash Dividend | GBP | 0.1745 | 06/6/2019 | 07/6/2019 | 01/7/2019 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 08/3/2024 13:02 by eigthwonder HEAD is running up the down escalator for sure. The independent carpet guys loved Headlam back in the day because they used to get two or three competing rep visits from the company per week, sometimes per day, and the delivery network was speedy but riddled with duplication. All as a result of acquisitions not being integrated. I wonder if Brewer has learned his lesson given the cast of thousands he name checks in the LIKE report. Only time will tell. |
Posted at 08/3/2024 10:17 by donald mcdonald It’s incredible that eighthwonder condiders Headlam “was left in a mess by Brewer”.Tony Brewer was fired by Headlam on or around 14th September 2016. The share price was £4.47. The profit reported in 2016 was £40.1 million and the dividend was 22.55 pence per share. The mess began the day Tony Brewer was fired because there was no one left on the Board who had any knowledge or experience of the complexities of distributing floorcoverings. What is more, in the intervening period, no one with any knowledge or experience of floorcoverings has been added to the Headlam Board. In the past, 100’s of independent retailers and flooring contractors purchased shares in Headlam. They considered the annual dividend as a form of loyalty rebate. Smaller shareholders did not really follow the share price as the generous dividend was of paramount importance. Several independent retailers and contractors used to attend the Headlam AGM just to get a chance to meet up and shake hands with Graham Waldron and Tony Brewer. Investing in Headlam for them was also invseting in their own future. Before Graham Waldron and Tony Brewer revolutionised the wholesale floorcovering market, an independent retailer might have to wait 7 to 10 days for a cut length of carpet to be delivered to them. Graham & Tony introduced “everywhere, everday” deliveries. The independent retailers loved this because in effect Headlam’s £100 million of inventory was available to them on a next day basis. Carpetright could no longer compete on service with the indepependent retailers. Headlam have gone all in with their decision to abdicate their core business of independent retailers and flooring contractors in favcour of large customers (Tapi, SCS, et al) and so far 2,000 carpet fitters & floor layers. It is a policy that they will be unable to reverse if they find out in the future that this business plan is flawed. Headlam may be right, but it going to take 2 to 3 years to find out because their business plan for Trade Counters is basically ‘build it and they will come’. With Headlam currently hemorrhaging so much market share in their core business to Likewise and the many independents, each trade counter needs to get to a break even turnover of £1.2 million in double quick time. Then there is the difficulty of getting to an earning enhancing turnover of £2 million. And that has to happen at every site. If one trade counter gets stuck at £600,000K, another needs to contribute over £3 million to make uo the shortfall. It is hard to get people from within the industry to go on the record, but privately very few believe that Headlam will achieve its objectives. Trade magazines are reticent to publish Headlam’s bad news stories for fear of losing advertising revenue. Not that Headlam does much marketing nowadays. Manufacturer’s and Suppliers are keeping their heads down in public and waiting to see what develops. And then what happens if one of their so-called larger customers fails or decides to procure from a different source. It has happended before and lead to Headlam issuing a profit warning to shareholders. The next 2 years should determine the outcome. |
Posted at 07/3/2024 22:39 by eigthwonder as noted i won't defend today's HEAD, but my sources would point to a flat lining of the business before Brewer left leaving behind a very bloated and complex asset and management structure which made it totally unprepared for a changing market. the other thing which went wrong was the stupidly overpriced acquisition made by his successor trying to put his stamp on the business - the successor who was also the FD in Brewer's time and who should never have got the top job. it's been a wounded animal for years. |
Posted at 06/3/2024 17:42 by eigthwonder I'll spend little time defending HEAD - they're suffering in that way which is unique to a the leading player in a moribund market - but we do have to be careful with LIKE's numbers as they do include acquisitions and so a LFL might be somewhat less impressive.HEAD was left in a mess by Brewer so I am wary of the chances of long term success at LIKE. |
Posted at 06/3/2024 08:57 by tomps2 Headlam Group (HEAD) Full Year results presentation - March 24Headlam Group Chief Executive Chris Payne, and Chief Financial Officer, Adam Phillips present full year results for the year ended 31 December 2023, followed by Q&A. Watch the video here: Or listen to the podcast here: |
Posted at 27/2/2024 09:14 by tomps2 Headlam Group (HEAD) FY23 results webinarTuesday, 5 March, 11:00am Headlam Group Chief Executive, Chris Payne and Chief Financial Officer, Adam Phillips will host an online investor presentation and Q&A covering their full year results for the period ended 31 December 2023. To attend, register here: bit.ly/HEAD_FY23_res |
Posted at 13/12/2023 11:01 by sphere25 Comment from Peel Hunt below, but clearly it would be worrying if "sales" were going to fall by £1m to £11m:"Flooring group Headlam (HEAD) is trading below net asset value (NAV) after a tough period, which Peel Hunt says shows the potential in the shares. Analyst Charles Hall reiterated his ‘hold’ recommendation and target price of 250p on the flooring distributor, which fell 4.7%, or 10p, to 201p after a full-year trading update on Tuesday. The company suffered a weak period in September and October but there was some improvement in November although ‘volumes remained below the prior year’, he said. Hall reduced his full-year sales forecast by £1m to £11m and is expecting ‘modest improvement’ in full-year 2024 to £12m. ‘Trading conditions are challenging, given the pressure on the housing market and increase in rates,’ he said. ‘The company has a number of self-help levers, which should enable improvement in future years. The shares are trading below net asset value, which demonstrates the potential value.’" It clearly isn't great going from a bottom line of £11m to £12m. It is all low growth so perhaps it will be a while longer before the market gets its bullish boots on companies like this. It might explain why the market only has a tendency to have some relief type oversold bounces in particular shares without then having proper follow through momentum. I don't know how many rate forecasters are out there, and who is going to be right, but noted one yesterday showing rates at 4.5% in 2024 falling to 3.5% in 2025. Maybe we have to work further through next year to get closer to the market looking forward to 3.5%? Don't know, hard to time this stuff. The easy thing to spot will be when buyers start moving in big here with continued buying momentum. And that is just where we are in the UK right now. All imo DYOR |
Posted at 06/12/2023 12:19 by sphere25 So LIKE didn't warn today, even mentioning a record performance month in November. The buyers came in early here on that with notable bids on the order book from 197p and slightly above. Normally nothing happens in HEAD on a morning - usually takes a while for the book to populate and the spread to come in.So maybe the CEO buy here at HEAD is also suggesting trading isn't as bad as feared of late. I was torn about having a go here, but then the CEO bought, and that buy might end up being a signal. It is still too uncertain. It isn't like the price here and elsewhere in smaller caps is on some charge - relief type bounces and more stalling now. Just a little trend here emerging, could just be a bounce, but I will hang on abit longer and see if the buyers keep coming in. Lob abit higher from here if the buyers keep coming and then sit and see how trading has gone into year end and develops. It will be pants, but maybe pants is already in the price? All imo DYOR |
Posted at 26/10/2023 20:28 by pireric Always good to have a detailed debate!Distribution business on 6x P/E... maybe if the market falls completely out of bed, but that would feel extremely harsh in a cycle upswing or even through a cycle on average. This has consistently traded into the low-double-digit P/E range in normal times. ROCE is generally good on these sorts of businesses, and cash generation tends to be solid too. Distributors as a whole (I'm thinking Flowtech, Macfarlane, James Latham, then the bigger more diversified multi-sector ones). 6x would stick out like a sore thumb against them by an order or magnitude, as it would Headlam's own history. Many of these in normal market environments are 10-13x stocks, with the more diversified players stretching towards 14-15x. So on 10x I'd be thinking £200m of base value under that argument (already >30% upside). For additional context: Headlam's own average P/Es which were being applied to very mid-cycle profit numbers - Last 2 years = 10.5x - Last 4 years = 12.4x - Last 10 years = 12.6x - Average since 2005 = 12.1x - P/E immediately pre-covid = 14x I wouldn't assume you need to discount the inventory. Carpets, tiles etc really don't depreciate much or go out of fashion. Ironically, the inventory NAV is more rock solid than in most industries. I can't remember off the top of my head, but I don't recall any material inventory write-downs even through the GFC, as a result of the above factor. Headlam's accounting policies are pretty clean, which is why they have historically depreciated freeholds at 2% a year when freeholds generally increase their value over time. If I did your £120m (far too low IMV), added full inventories back, £105m for receivables (i.e. £10m write-off), £18m of cash, net +£5m from fire insurance minus interim dividend, then minus total liabilities excluding lease liabilities (you can't really add those into your calculation without ROU assets) and you'd still get to £186m of value. That means you can afford £40m of inventory writedown just to get to what is implied at 182p and with zero net value for property assets. But this is a slightly apples to oranges approach as the inventory like most of the property are necessary to run the business. And then I'd argue this should be more like a £25m+ net income business than £20m. As I said I wouldn't be writing down inventory and £10m of receivables write-downs is not small at all. The more I do the maths, the more extremely bearish you have to be even to get to the current valuation. So if I wanted to be super super simplistic... - 10x P/E even on a reduced range of £20-25m of through the cycle net income gets 33-70% upside. - Assets ex intangibles approach gets 80% upside. - I can construct downside if the world goes to pot or something horrific happens here, but investing is all about likelihoods and I really like my odds of potentially making several years of effective 'averaged' double-digit returns off these levels Eric |
Posted at 18/10/2023 20:00 by pireric Hi Cisk,Beyond simply doing map analysis (which I did part of), it's hard to know on a case by case basis. But ultimately, I don't think anyone is really suggesting that they go around and sell off the freehold assets in bulk and wind down the business. Moreso that historically, it's pretty rare to find non-financials companies that have been consistently profitable trading below tangible book. Let alone a huge discount. A lot of construction markets are indirect (have distributors) and remain that way without much shift. Whether that's bricks or other material components. The manufacturers don't want to maintain the long tail of supply chain connections, or become their own distribution or logistics plays. Sure, if Headlam gets disintermediated it's a risk, but I don't attribute much chance of that happening... certainly not above what HEAD are trying to do around their own trade counter/large customer initiatives. I agree lack of positive near term catalysts. Has the cycle bottomed? Maybe not... BUT in these deep cycles, share prices tend to bottom before earnings bottom. In the GFC, the share price rallied 40% off the lows, while EPS forecasts went off for another 15% cuts until they reached their lows. And even during the GFC, Headlam's trough P/B multiple was significantly above where it is today. As soon as investors stop thinking about absolute valuation and more thinking it's too early to buy, rough rule of thumb for me is that is quite often a decent place to step in. Eric |
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