Hayward Tyl Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 12/4/2017 21:11

Every unit installed should have some post sales service contract revenue associated with it.

[lignum] 12/4/2017 20:40

Anyone able to come up with a year end debt number? I can't.

[grahamwales] 12/4/2017 11:54

At least the doomsayers have been silenced for the time being.

[pavey ark] 12/4/2017 11:47

A common mistake is to assume that a company like this must match revenue with announced capital orders.
With a large installed base a company like HAYT will derive a sizeable part of its revenue from repair and maintenance work which certainly would not be announced.

The revenue figure of £60m-£65m is consistent with the figures given some time ago and the shortfall from the original £80m was explained in some detail by the CEO.
Whither people accept this explanation is up to them but they should take the time to read/listen to it.

Nice to see people projecting a revenue of £7m a month which by simple arithmetic would suggest a revenue of over £80m this financial year.

I had penciled in this figure but nice to see other,less enthusiastic, posters embracing it.

[rogerrail] 12/4/2017 11:21

lignum

you could look at it that way, my comment was optimistically put from the point of the first of three order announcements on the 14th March not suggesting this is the true run rate!.

[lignum] 12/4/2017 10:00

How can they have an 8% range of revenues 2 weeks after year end? Presumably a large part of this will be profit so they are unable to give any steer on ebitda.

Roger - I couldn't see any other orders announced since 1 Feb so shouldn't that be £12m in 2 months, which is roughly the order intake needed to replenish the order book (assuming H2 revenues of c £7m pm).

Also why no indication of debt level at 31 March?

Looking forward to next Thursday for more insight.

[cockerhoop] 12/4/2017 10:00

Seems traditional that HAYT releases a YE trading update in late April along with a date for the reporting of Full Year Results. It's scheduled a week earlier this year which I'd take as a mildly positive sign.

[nearlythere] 12/4/2017 09:49

I not sure why they cannot get this short term funding problem sorted, IMO it may be they are attempting to get secure a medium longer term agreeement with banks to provide some certainty.

[varies] 12/4/2017 09:35

The interim statement issued in November suggested that sales for the full year to 31.03.2017 would be about £80 million (v. £60-65m now indicated).
Expectations have fallen steadily since then and with them the share price until the recent move by Avingtrans.
Having bought back my shares at a price 25% higher than what I sold them for and doubled up, I am keeping my fingers crossed !
If the short term loans can be sorted out, then perhaps we might reasonably hope for sales of £80m in 2017/18 and a recovery in the share price to 80p even if AVG walks away. My feeling is that an offer will be forthcoming.

[rogerrail] 12/4/2017 08:50

£12m worth of orders in a month, not a bad run rate!

[pavey ark] 12/4/2017 08:25

"We are anticipating revenues for our financial year just completed in the range of GBP60-65m as previously highlighted in our announcement of 20 February 2017. We look forward to updating the market with further detail of our continued good progress on Thursday 20 April."

I can't find a previous mention of the 20th of April (?)so it looks like an update and given the tone I would suggest that there will be a further order announcement.

My read (guesstimate)at this point is that if the orders come through and/or the long term funding is secured then AVG will walk away as the value of HAYT will be above the price they are willing to pay.

[jeanesy] 12/4/2017 07:48

Is the risk worth taking? They sound very confident for a company in trouble /!

[p1nkfish] 12/4/2017 07:26

Avg - what price?

[escapetohome] 12/4/2017 07:23

Nice very very nice indeed.

[battlebus2] 12/4/2017 07:20

Yes and more contracts announced.

[p1nkfish] 12/4/2017 07:17

20th April will be interesting. Brief update today.

[topvest] 10/4/2017 18:37

Can't see equity holders doing well in the short-term. The company needs capital and is desperate. Not a good negotiating position.

[battlebus2] 10/4/2017 17:41

Could be a leaky ship.

[jeanesy] 10/4/2017 17:33

Why the big drop this afternoon?

[meijiman] 10/4/2017 10:04

Got to agree. Factory visits by minor royalty/celebs is the kiss of death sign. An immmediate sell signal.

[lignum] 10/4/2017 09:57

MTIOC - I share your views.

[pugugly] 09/4/2017 19:17

MITOC Very fair comment - Gongs and sponsored books about history of the Company are more often than not a sell signal - especially books !!

[mtioc] 09/4/2017 19:10

The current liquidity problems appear to have their roots in funding long term investment on a "shoe string" to avoid raising additional equity last year. As I recall (and I don't have papers with me), the £10m Luton facility was funded with £2m overdraft/revolver. c. £7.5m of £10m PB acquisition was funded by disadvantageous sale and lease back, where "new" rent effectively rendered acquisition loss making (a presentation on the website makes this clearer). In both cases, the bet was that materially improved trading performance would cover the "shortfall". Unfortunately, trading appears to have gone the other way, at least in the short term.

As a poster above notes, it is impossible to conclude unless you understand H2 cash profits, the order book and the bank position. After all the GRG issues that RBS have had to live through over the last 5 years, unless it is running out of cash, they will not want to burst a high profile British engineering business and I suspect they will be relatively complicit in "kicking the can down the road" if order book justifies that approach. Appears to have been approach thus far.

In these situations, you are either meant to buy more (market wrong) or sell (you were wrong). I don't know enough about H2 or order book to buy, but opportunistic Avingtrans approach means I will probably linger (when I should really sell). Against that, I have lost faith in management who appear to have been too pre-occupied with external BS (Queens Award etc..) rather than generating order intake, which is the lifeblood of these businesses. I suspect many would not survive under AVG.

[luckymouse] 06/4/2017 13:36

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[varies] 05/4/2017 09:53

We may be in a position where the share price will rise every afternoon in the hope of an offer being announced overnight only to fall back in the morning because none has.
I am not a "day-trader" but would be deterred by the 10% spread if I were.