Hayward Tyl Share Discussion Threads

[lignum] 05/4/2017 09:04

p1nkfish - I don't wear glasses and have my eyes wide open.

[p1nkfish] 04/4/2017 22:28

lignum, when you where dark glasses everything appears dark.

What if a customer has leaked details of a large order?
What if AVG have leaked details of a firm offer?
What if a potential White Knight has leaked info?
What if something leaked from RBS?

[dozey3] 04/4/2017 17:59

190k traded today so somebody sees a good reason to chase the price up. Not me, honestly, but I still have my miserable little holding and evey little helps.

[lignum] 04/4/2017 17:47

I agree this seems to be a very leaky ship - doesn't inspire confidence in the crew.

[grahamwales] 04/4/2017 16:04

Looks like there may be another leak. Orders or offer mmmm

[grahamwales] 04/4/2017 16:02

Huge flood of orders would be nice and RBS increasing loan to cover production and fight off takeover bid lol

[rogerrail] 04/4/2017 15:17

grahamw


4. huge flood of orders materializes resulting in dramatic increase in share price and prompting company to arrange a hasty placing to pay down debt.

che sera sera

[lignum] 04/4/2017 14:49

Pavey - if you've ever been in a situation where you are in breach of banking covenants you will know this puts the banks in a very strong situation and a temporary waiver can come with all sorts of conditions attached. A waiver is not a 'ok let's talk tomorrow' situation; it's a 'here's your waiver subject to the following conditions and if you don't meet these new conditions the breach will become enforceable'. Example New condition 1. We're putting in a reporting accountant. New condition 2. You will send us details of all payments for our prior approval before payment is released. etc

None of us know what is going on there but 31 March was last Friday. For an engineering business they probably need at least a week to get a rough idea on ebitda. I am not so confident as others here. £4-5m in H2 is c £1m pm. This will not arise evenly and is probably back ended towards Feb/March. Customers may have delayed orders and suppliers may be demanding cash up front before delivery. This can have a dramatic impact on the ability to deliver product, get customer sign off and book the revenue and ebitda.

The banks will be demanding a quick H2 update and AVG will need it to firm up a bid. I would expect an announcement in the next few days or early next week. I am holding HAYT as there is value in there but they need some new management, starting with a new CFO - CFO's are supposed to stop these situations happening.

[pavey ark] 04/4/2017 13:58

Any company taking out a short term loan like this would agree to repay on a certain date.
If the loan is not repaid on the due date , for whatever reason and even if the lender is willing to extend the date of repayment, then the company is still in breach of the original banking covenants.
I find this totally unremarkable and obvious but you seem to be trying to make it more than it is.
"From that statement it's clear that at the year end they're still in breach of their banking convenants."

Yes,unless they have repaid the loan !!

So it goes on and on!!!

[grahamwales] 04/4/2017 11:58

At the end of the day 3 things could happen here before the year end results are announced.

1. Takeover

2. Merger

3. RBS increases loan amout to cover future orders and HAYT reject 1 and 2.

[cockerhoop] 04/4/2017 10:33

I agree the EBITDA target of £4m-£5m in H2 is likely to be achieved but do not think the cash flow will be anywhere near to 87% of EBITDA.

On March 16th they said:

The repayment date has been extended from 31 March 2017 to 30 April 2017 and the annualised measurement of the financial covenants has also been put back from 31 March 2017 to 30 April 2017.

From that statement it's clear that at the year end they're still in breach of their banking convenants.

[pavey ark] 04/4/2017 10:25

Lignum,
You said you suspected the EBITDA target would not be met I merely pointed to a management statement,very close to the year end, that it would be £4m to £5m in H2.

We have now passed the year end and this statement had not been corrected.

As you have no confidence in the management why do you hold shares?

NB: if management haven't corrected this statement and the results are materially different we have gone well beyond an issue of confidence.

[pavey ark] 04/4/2017 10:15

I getting bored with this and suspect that I am flattering you when I described you as disingenuous.
I will type this slowly.
They spent very heavily on capital items up to October.
They raised cash to pay the short term loan.
The company and their bank got into discussions over LONG TERM FUNDING and it was decided to delay the repayment of the SHORT TERM LOAN until the total funding for the NEXT THREE YEARS could be sorted out.
Fine said TH we've hold onto the £2.4m as we spent over £4m on capital items and ungraded very recently and this cash would be handy.
Now either you think this scenario is unreasonable/ unlikely or you think that ,given the figures we have and the statements made by the company, this is very possibly the way things worked out.
One thing I'm pretty sure about is that RBS did not offer a good deal on the long term funding and this is why the company is holding out.

Anyway, bigger fish to fry than this.

[cockerhoop] 04/4/2017 09:22

Pavey Ark,

Your quote appears to have been lifted from the Interim Results - ie the 6 month period ending 30th September 2016! As you well know this is well before the money raised on the 21st December 2016 so doesn't get close to answering my question.

A less forgiving person might accuse you of being disingenuous :-)

[lignum] 04/4/2017 09:03

When you have little or no confidence in management ability to forecast.

[lignum] 04/4/2017 09:02

So how do you value a business with a LTM ebitda of around nil?

[pavey ark] 04/4/2017 08:59

Dated 20th Feb.

This revised revenue is expected to be GBP60-65 million, generating Trading(4) EBITDA of GBP4-5 million in 2H2017 and around breakeven Trading(4) EBITDA for the full year.

Not wanting to get at anyone (else) here but it is at least good to see people coming out with "I am a shareholder in AVG"
It's like the start of a addicts support meeting or a gathering of the cult.

[lignum] 04/4/2017 08:47

Pavey - I suspect the 4.5m ebitda / cash flow will not have been achieved which is behind the fall in SP, loss of confidence in management and introduction of AVG to talks. This isn't 'de-ramping' - I hold shares in both HAYT and AVG. If it goes ahead it won't be a merger and I expect HAYT to be run independently with some management changes. Any discussion on the value of HAYT is meaningless unless you have access to their H2 results, the debt position and the order book.

[pavey ark] 04/4/2017 08:43

"GBP2.4 million of these purchases relate to investment in the Centre of Excellence including expenditure on the building works, fitting-out the building and new plant and machinery. GBP1.4 million relates to expenditure in HT Colchester on new plant and equipment together with a revised layout of the shop floor to increase capacity."
This from the November results.
In H2 I estimate that the EBITDA was £4.5m with the bulk converted to cash which would certainly keep the lights on.
Where the £2.4m may have been essential spend the £1.4m looks very much like a discretionary spend.
Hardly the action of a company scrambling about for cash.
The timing of discussions with RBS is not clear but it is clear to me that this is a matter of timing.
If RBS decided to postpone final agreement on long term debt then, given their recent, heavy investment outlay it is entirely reasonable for the company to hold back on the short term repayment.

Of course all of this must be seen from the perspective of my holding in HAYT and your fantasy of AVG buying HAYT for £20m !!

[cockerhoop] 04/4/2017 08:17

Well you've accused me of being disingenuous for pointing out they raised money specifically to pay RBS and 6 weeks later failed to do what they said they would.

Are you really naive enough to believe there's FCF accumulating in the HAYT piggy bank and they'd rather keep it than pay their debts to RBS with the resulting share price weakness, draining respect for the executives and vulnerability to a low ball takeover attempt?

Perhaps you can provide evidence to back your assertion that they used they money raised on 21st December 2016 to buy equipment?

[pavey ark] 03/4/2017 23:07

How does that post in any way lessen or call into question any of the points made in my post ?

[cockerhoop] 03/4/2017 21:59

Disingenuous?

From the December 21st RNS:

'Tied to the on-going development of the business, the Company will use the proceeds of the new issue to repay short-term borrowings under its revolving credit facility ("RCF").'

[pavey ark] 03/4/2017 16:41

I held AVG only briefly as my rate of return greatly outweighed a "hold" but the main reason was that to hold was a leap of faith that the company would come up with a new deal/ acquisition and it hasn't yet.
Another reason for the rise of AVG is the tip in the IC .
As I recall you have posted repeated negative comments about HAYT and when challenged/corrected you simply move on or am I confusing you with any number of similar posters here.
The company will announce an EBITDA of c.£4.5m in H2 and the bulk of that will be/has been converted into cash.
The company did announce that additional funds were used in equipment purchase and some of this may have come from the cash earmarked for RBS but they have certainly indicated that the EBITDA WAS £4.5m in H2 and it is totally disingenuous to imply that the RBS destined cash was used to keep the lights on.
Also worth noting that RBS could have simply held out their hand a new said " I don't thinks so, give us the cash, now!"

[cockerhoop] 03/4/2017 16:21

Nobody is disputing that HAYT isn't a company with potential but their ability to generate cash since their investment in the Luton centre and PB is far from proven Pavey Ark. As an example they raised money to repay the RBS loan on 21st December but had spent it by 31st January presumably sucked into working capital. Hardly proven cash generation is it?As for the reason you were able to cash all (rather than 50%) of your AVG shares in for £2 were more patient investors saw the obvious potential the the company and have been rewarded with the current share price

[grahamwales] 03/4/2017 15:06

Was also edging towards a merger especially with the shareholders that HAYT have. It would be a good match pooling resources and customer base.