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HYNS Haynes Publishing Group Plc

685.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Haynes Publishing Group Plc LSE:HYNS London Ordinary Share GB0004160833 ORD 20P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 685.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Haynes Publishing Share Discussion Threads

Showing 151 to 172 of 550 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
29/1/2009
08:44
I found the following two extracts reassuring:

"in the US, mid-way through the second quarter, it became apparent that sales volumes were softening again as retailers further reduced inventory levels in response to economic necessity. We were able to track lower replenishment during a period when through-the-register sales were holding up reasonably well."

"we know that in periods of economic downturn and in particular, in times of high unemployment, overall levels of Do-it-Yourself activity normally increase and at Haynes we have usually seen sales of repair manuals improve during such periods."

levr
29/1/2009
08:26
Remember they spent 7mm on aquistions since last year so they still generated cash in the period.
wjccghcc
29/1/2009
08:20
Top line gives concern - Need to crunch therest of the figures but the share price decline was a good forecast of the profit decline. Teh biggest worry for me is the change from cash positive to cash negative.

-Profit before tax on continuing operations of GBP1.7m (2007: GBP2.8m)

- Basic earnings per share from continuing operations of 6.8 pence (2007:
11.3 pence)

-Net debt of GBP1.4m (2007: net cash of GBP4.5m)

pugugly
21/1/2009
19:09
madness to short a share that is 62% in the directors hands.

also

it's the only supplier in a niche market.

tricky1992000
15/1/2009
10:45
A snippet from Bloomsbury's trading statement issued this morning:

"A handful of customers have already closed or are in administration but books have been reasonably resilient in previous economic downturns."

www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200901150700166659L

levr
12/1/2009
09:30
Good point on the A shares.

While I'm sure profits will drop, the company is quite different from 2001 having sold off the publishing arm and other book interests.

wjccghcc
12/1/2009
08:48
Worse case scenario ?? From my 2001 Database.©2001 citywire.co.uk
Not saying it will happen but there is precedent. Possible bankrupcies amongst stockists must be a worry in the current business climate.


No quick fix for Haynes' pains
Do-it-yourself motor manual publisher Haynes saw its shares plummet more than 25% this morning as it plunged into the red with a half-year loss of £700,000.

The shares were down 32.5p at 95p in late morning trading.

The loss before tax for the six months to November compares with a profit of £2 million the year before. Sales were up from £13.3 million to £15.4 million but earnings per share slumped from 7.9p to a loss per share of 6.4p.

The group has net borrowings of £6.9 million against net cash of £2.4 million at the end of the first half in 1999/2000. It is the first time in a number of years that Haynes has been geared.

The interim dividend didn't survive unscathed and has been slashed from 4.5p to 1p a share.

The group has just completed its acquisition of WG Nichols' consumer print product business in the US, which trades under the brand name Chilton.

Nichols' manufacturing, warehousing and distribution services are being integrated with the editorial side at Haynes' North American subsidiary.

The costs of absorbing Nichols are minimal but the group has had to account for £800,000 for the reorganisation and integration of Sutton Publishing, acquired last March.

This purchase consolidates Haynes' position as a key provider of automotive information for the do-it-yourself market in the US.

That's all very well, but the group has just admitted that trading conditions were extremely difficult in all markets during the period and the automotive sector in both the US and UK was hit by weak demand from several major retailers.

To add to the pain, its second largest retail customer in the UK went into receivership in October, while the non-manual business in the UK was dented by a generally soft retail book market.

The group made a fainthearted stab at lifting the gloom and said: 'There is no immediate evidence of a turnaround in our two major markets. However, it is to be hoped that lower interest rates in the US will prompt this.'

Tight cost controls are now key and savings gained through the Nichols acquisition are expected to flow through in the middle of this calendar year.

However, it all looks a bit messy and investors should steer clear for now.

©2001 citywire.co.uk

pugugly
12/1/2009
07:06
WJCCGHCC>

Enterprise value = market capitalization + debt + preferred equity - cash and cash equivalents..

Number of shares in issue

Allotted, called up and fully paid:
'A' Ordinary shares of 20p 9,000,000
Ordinary shares of 20p 7,351,540

Both the 'A' Ordinary shares and the Ordinary shares carry equal voting rights of one vote per share where a matter is decided other than on a show of hands. Both classes of share rank 'pari passu' (including any distribution by way of dividend and on a return of capital ), save that a transfer of 'A'
Ordinary shares will not be permitted by the Directors other than to a member of the holder's immediate family or to family settlements. The holders of 'A' Ordinary shares may convert such shares into Ordinary shares at the rate of one Ordinary share for each 'A' Ordinary , subject to the further provi sions of the Articles of Association and the Companies Acts.

So total number of shares 16,351,540.

ADVFN have the correct number but Refs have the wrong number

Based on the above I make the EV of the Coy approx £22.5 million and the forward FCF somewhere in the region of £1.5 - £ 2 million max.

Assuming I have done the sums correctly and we are using the same definitions.

pugugly
11/1/2009
23:12
A short candidate imo - chart says 80p to me
pictureframe
11/1/2009
22:16
Pugugly, bank base rates move with the BOE base rate so the overdraft rate will be a lot lower than 6-8%, more like 3-4%. In any case, while I'd estimate them to still have the overdraft in H1 (as they paid the final dividend), I'd hope it to be reduced by cashflow during H2.

You're right that interest income will be negligible this year.

FCF = cashflow from operating activities pre working capital changes less average capex for the last 2 years = 7.62mm - 1.25mm = 6.37mm. EV = 9.4mm. So even if FCF drops to 3mm, then EV/FCF is just over 3.

wjccghcc
11/1/2009
20:45
Are there any current forecasts for HYNS and did anyone go to the Agm to get a feel for director confidence ?
davidosh
11/1/2009
20:25
WJCCGHCC:.
- In fy 08 finance income was £1,518,000 - but they had some £6 million on deposit - Most of this has now been used and the interest achievable on the remainder will be about 1% - (on normal bank commercial deposits. You might get a higher rate on something like the Black Rock treasures Sterling fund.)

Their bank loans will I suggest be attracting a charge of between 6% to 8% - banks are not usually passing through the cuts in base rate.(I have had a search of the last accounts but cannot find any reference to a libor link
The only comment I found was

"Interest rate risk The Group companies have overdraft and loan facilities which are subject to variable rates of interest based on the respective bank's base rate. As at 31 May 2008 there were no bank loans outstanding (2007: £nil) and bank overdrafts outstanding of £2.3 million (2007: £nil). Money market deposits are placed for periods varying between call and one month and attract variable rates of interest based upon the banks cost of funds for the relevant currencies."

Best rate for £1 Million plus on 7 day is now about 0.8% and going down.

This will be taken after trading results - Hence my view of an annualized hit of some £3.5 million on the finance income/costs position.

I agree the Car Manual sales should be holding up fairly well but the trading update of 11th December was very negative "marked weakness" and "adverse impact on our trading results for the 1st 6 months"

In the 15th October statement General Publishing was noted as having experienced "a marked downturn" with higher returns from the stores - similar conditions were also experienced in Australia.

I hope this explains where I am coming from.

I cannot agree with your FCF/EV ratio. I make current EV per share as £1.37 per share - what figure are you using for free cash flow?

pugugly
11/1/2009
18:56
Not sure I agree. While november was no doubt extremely poor (as it was for most retail), it appears the book market actually did quite well in December.

They're extremely cash generative - the fall of £3.9mm last year was after spending 7mm on acquisitions. The remaining debt is a bank overdraft and I'd guess that's likely to be tied to base rates so why do you think interest costs will remain high?

They also have a very strong net current asset position - as the business slows, that will unwind increasing cash further.

You might be right about the pension fund.

Even with a 50% drop in EPS, FCF/EV will still be under 3.

Anyway, all will be revealed on the 29th.

wjccghcc
11/1/2009
15:53
Since 12 Dec share price has continued to fall and trade volume much higher than usual. Trading updates have been very cautious.

Having crunched the numbers I think there could be a very significant drop in profits.

Cash at 31/5/08 had dropped to £2.5 Million from £6.4 million in 07, also the bank interest for the 2nd half of fy 09 will be minimal given the fall in rates, The group will however still be paying substantial sums in interest. My estimate is that this will reduce profits by some £2 million.

The last interim management statement indicated that the group was still profitable - I suggest that the could be a drop of £1.5 million to £2 million in operating profit, given the apparent problems with general printing.

There may well be a need to make a supplementary top up into the pension schemes.

I do not think that there is sufficient data in the trading updates to guesstimate fy 09 eps but a fall of 40% - 75% would not surprise me.

Any other thoughts or comments.

e & oe. all cautions apply and DYOR.

Disclaimer - I do not hold, have not held, but have been considering a purchase based on historic yield but am worried that the dividend could be under threat or uncovered,

pugugly
12/12/2008
09:12
Mr Market does not seem to like Haynes - although the credit crunch should be good for them - people sericing their own cars BUT MAYBE IT IS THE PENSION OVERHANG.

From the 08 accounts

Pensions
The Group has a number of different retirement programmes in the countries within which it
operates. The principal pension programmes are a contributory defined benefit scheme in
the UK and a non-contributory defined benefit plan in the US.
As at 31 May 2008 the aggregate deficit on the two retirement benefit schemes was £6.8
million (2007: £6.9 million). The lower deficit reflects a reduction in the present value of the
combined schemes defined benefit obligations of £1.4 million, principally as a result of an
increased discount rate assumption of 6.6% (2007: 5.6%) applied by the UK Scheme
actuaries in line with International Accounting Standard 19. However, the gain on the
lower liabilities was mostly offset by lower returns on the combined schemes assets of
£1.3 million.

pugugly
12/12/2008
07:51
True but certain companies consistently do it in the afternoons. Goodwin also springs to mind.

For me, sneaky means releasing stuff at 4.29pm or after the market has closed.

wjccghcc
12/12/2008
00:07
Yes because 99% are released in the morning before the market opens
spob
11/12/2008
23:37
Not really. The AGM statement was released at 15.30.

Not a huge surprise re weak Oct/Nov trading. Be interesting to see the impact on H1.

wjccghcc
11/12/2008
23:26
Trading statement at 4 in the afternoon

sneaky

spob
11/12/2008
20:42
wad, they are in a net cash position.
wjccghcc
16/11/2008
17:03
Seems to be holding up alright to me.

CR

cockneyrebel
16/11/2008
14:36
don't panic - just my target price
spob
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