Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 26/11/2020 12:05

netcurtains

one reason for possible moving of the station is the planned park & ride

since at Blindwells area there is land available for parking....whereas in the existing town of Prestonpans I assume there are no/few m2 for more parking for park & ride.

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for the site it would benefit a lot if the station was 0.3 miles & not 1.3-1.4 miles from a house on Blindwells

(cycling, a lot of office workers wouldn't be so keen phps on cycling phps even if just for 1.3 miles
(including female office workers in office clothes)
....icy cold in Jan./Feb...& a fair amount of wet days I guess

[sphere25] 26/11/2020 12:03

Judging by the buys coming in now, I'd say this has been tipped. Still looks like a big seller here, just doesn't shift big on all the buying.

[netcurtains] 26/11/2020 12:01

meijiman: HSP has loads of NAV (land) and if it could unlock this NAV it would be worth a fortune. The site in Edinburgh might be the beginning of unlocking value.
So as an investment its a good buy for NAV.

Its net NAV is about £140M but its market cap is about £70M (fag packet figures)

On top of the NAV it also trades at a profit and that also is worth a few million on top of the £140M

[meijiman] 26/11/2020 11:46

Why all this interest in Hargreaves? Should we be buying the shares? Got to hope the company doesn't start buying a coal mine in Outer Mongolia.

[netcurtains] 26/11/2020 11:34

Its 15 minutes by train to centre of edinburgh (from site) and 50 minutes by bus.
Both cost couple of quid. Obviously train miles better as no traffic jams
Best bet is bike to station - no need to move station.

[smithie6] 26/11/2020 10:47

train station/halt for Blindwells newtown (it is a such a big site that it is often referred to as a newtown project)

if useful to know, one option being considered is to move the existing nearby train station of Prestonpans 1-1.1 miles to the east, to be at the edge of Blindwells newtown
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it is also being looked at to increase the number of train lines from 2 to 4 in to Edinburgh for that general area because of the existing demand, never mind the expected extra demand

[terry236] 26/11/2020 10:17

Follow Hargreaves Land on LinkedIn, they sometimes post updates hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/hargreaves-land_residentialdevelopment-newtown-blindwells-activity-6731881491107717120-24Rq

[netcurtains] 26/11/2020 09:48

Smithie6: no - I decided to remain in Surrey for a while. Its nice enough here too. No hurry...

[smithie6] 26/11/2020 09:46

oops

fair point

I've now corrected that post to say
'not so far off £1million/acre'

[muckshifter] 26/11/2020 09:30

Smithie6, you need a new calculator! £9m for 10.8 acres is not "over a million / acre". But the real point is that Bellway have not paid the £9m, that is the nice bit we are waiting for, ie. completion.

[smithie6] 26/11/2020 08:12

ah ha

you now live in that general area
& can post reports on construction progress ??!!

[netcurtains] 26/11/2020 07:42

All I know is I was looking for a house between North Berwick and Portobello - including some of the new estates. On the other hand the other side of Edinburgh still has some good properties at reasonable prices around Silverknowes (buses come every few minutes direct to centre of Edinburgh)

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 23:03

Netcurtains
you happen to know what the situation is wrt permission or planning a train halt/station on that existing train line, for the new homes?

(HSP has spent £15-20 million or more, on site development & services

the state should do its part & get the train halt designed & get permission & get funding allocated (being ~12 miles from the Scottish Parliament should help make it happen !!)
...I assume they might not want to build it until it is closer to having a bigger population there, able to use it, which is a few years away I assume (5 ?)....but knowing it is approved & has funding would/should increase the value of the HSP land/plots

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site location
the block of land just north east of
- A1 with A198
on edge of Prestonpans
looks like the train line marks approximately the northern edge & the A1 the southern edge & the A198 the western edge.

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 22:56

netcurtains

'Portobello beach'

you really know the area !

(' on a hot summer's day
...that would have to be, was it, 1976 ??!!)

(what is the life expectancy in minutes for anyone that goes in that cold water ! brrrrr ;-)

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 22:12

1600 plots with permission in principle in 2017, I assume it is now full building permission

= phase 1

(phase 2 would produce ~900 more homes on HSP land , but the land sales wouldn't happen until later in phase 1 & with firm planning permission, & acceptable sales of the phase 1 properties...)

if sell 1600 plots (over X years !, not in 1 week) at £50,000/serviced plot (looks correct, see other post)

that would be 80 million quid
minus 15 million invested in site prep. in 2019 & 18. (& in prior years ?)
cost of planning applics. ?
cost of project support staff over X years ?
if 25 million costs (25+10)
then phps a profit of 80-25 =£55 million.

And more HSP plots/land is available there.

while noting that the approved plans include quite a highish % for open spaces & for cheap/subsidised houses (which I assume produce little/no profit for the builder or land seller)

(only 12 miles from Edinburgh, cool
& a fair amount of dual carriageway ( not motorway)
& plan is for the site to have its own small train station (which would surely bump up the property/land values :-) )

versus cap. value of HSP of ~£70 million

& HSP owns other housing/development projects

(noting that a key factor from a shareholder's viewpoint imo is how long it takes to get paid for those projects & how high are the HSP costs during that time, the more years it takes then the profit from plot sales gets reduced by the cost of the HSP project support team & repeated planning application costs & ....)

[netcurtains] 25/11/2020 22:09

"no where is perfect"?

oh I dont know Portobello beach on a hot July.

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:51

can't have everything !

or

no where is perfect !

;-)

[netcurtains] 25/11/2020 21:48

You get a lot of Newcastle and Sunderland in Edinburgh too

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:47

May 2019

Bellway paid £9 million for 10.8 acres

not so far off 1million/acre

how many acres has Hargreaves got left to sell ??

perhaps 200 homes, combined with another land sale of ~£1million
~ £50k/serviced plot average, with cheaper/subsidised homes being lower price/plot (~50) & the rest (~150) paying a higher price per plot.

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in 2017 Hargreaves got permission for 1600 houses

how many acres is that ?
& how many acres left ?

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:39

netcurtains

yes,

& a lot of golf courses :-)

& Edinburgh's not bad as well !
..central garden area is rather nice in the summer of course (Princes Street Gardens)

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but phps don't wear an England football strip or you risk problems !
(one youngster got beaten up in a shopping mall I recall)

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:37

how many plots has HSG got for the whole project ?

[netcurtains] 25/11/2020 21:32

Some great seaside towns round there - take a look at "north Berwick" on google

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:25

from the last prelim annual results

"At the major Blindwells site near Edinburgh, completion of the first sales of fully serviced plots were on schedule to be recorded in May but have been delayed into the year ending 31 May 2021 by Covid-19 as all site works had to be suspended in late March. Site works recommenced in late June but at a slower pace as a result of Covid-19 safety precautions. GBP8.0m (2019: GBP7.0m) of infrastructure cost has been invested in the site during the year, which is included in Inventory in the Group Balance Sheet."

(so, in 2 years £15 million has been invested in infrastructure costs

phps that means roads, scheme sewers/gas etc, power cables etc

hopefully that means that seeds have been sown & now its time to reap some harvest

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Edinburgh is expensive for property
with all the MPs at the Scottish Parliament, & their advisers & staff
all the top law courts etc for Scotland
& Scottish HQ offices

so, there is demand in the commuter belt, & the option to have a garden & place to put a car

[smithie6] 25/11/2020 21:13

the proposed housing scheme that you are talking about, is it this one ??



which appears to be north of Tranent, & close to the coast road that goes east from Edinburgh