Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 28/4/2016 19:28

Well they bought £425k worth today/yesterday which is enough from where I'm sitting. Tells me they wanted to buy before the results but couldn't due to the closed period.

There's a really good presentation on the HSP website with a slide on how the numbers work. All the asset sales are on top.

I am staying long. I am really struggling to work out my exit point.

[castleford tiger] 28/4/2016 18:39

someone sold 125k shares at 170p !!

That's 200k at just above the all time low.
They clearly don't have any faith.

I see a false dawn...........a suckers rally before the bad news starts to hit.

The bits I saw were trying to make EBITDA 10/15 million a year.
Central costs 5 million.

Cannot work out if asset sales /land was on top of that.
There may be enough to pay the BOD for a few years but shareholders make money?

Risk reward ratio. Still not for me until I see the BOD chuck a million or two in.

tiger

[cc2014] 28/4/2016 13:04

It looks like we've got through 176 at last as someone has been selling 10k blocks on L2 for hours. Back to 180 now and let's see what happens there

[cc2014] 27/4/2016 18:56

Quite an interesting day. Certainly lots to think about.

Looking at the trades someone sold 125k of shares at 170.0 which took most of the rest of the buyers to absorb. Absorb it they did with the price closing just about it.

Quite a few trades at 180 which gives me a nice warm glow for the future share price direction

[cc2014] 27/4/2016 12:47

Well it's turned but hit a wall at 180 for the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days as the extensive trading update is digested.

I think it looks good but it's not the sort of thing you can analyse in 10 minutes.

[cjohn] 27/4/2016 11:32

And a very interesting update on strategy, but with the emphasis firmly on assets. Even on their optimistic reading of HSP's potential operating profits in its restructured form, they aren't that attractive.

The assets are another matter, but I expect the potential restructuring costs - and difficulties- to be greater than they're suggesting.

[archibald meatpants] 27/4/2016 09:02

Small nibble back in this morning

[cc2014] 26/4/2016 19:56

I can finally see this starting to turn on L2. Whoever has been wiping out any large volume on the bid on a regular basis over the last 2 months appears to have finished.

Volume seems to have dried up almost completely and I don't quite know what that means.

Chart looks terribe though.

[castleford tiger] 21/4/2016 07:33

I think you are looking at the USD chart. The cable exchange rate plays with that.
try Pounds and its still down.

HSP has or will have no coal business. A small amount for domestic market but generators cannot use it going forward due to carbon tax.

HSP will have to take a hit on Tower and the Opencast in Jock land is now a liability.
All in my opinion.
tiger

[cc2014] 20/4/2016 19:23

For info. Some coal charts. I'm not concerned whether its the right type of coal - it's the trend I'm interested in.



Downtrend broken but price not rising as fast as I would like.

[castleford tiger] 19/4/2016 18:35

Since PEABODY went pop in the USA IT TELLS YOU coal IS FINISHED.

So move on and see if there is a business without it.

The chart looks dreadful and I think I said 150p. Now I say 100p.

Too risky for me.

Wait till the directors throw some cash in then take a view.

very best
Tiger

[cc2014] 18/4/2016 13:07

Thank you CJohn - I will take a look.

For the chartists:
It looks to me as if coal futures have broken through the upper band of the downtrend going back to 2011. Not by prices going up but by prices staying largely flat since the start of the year.

Fingers crossed.

[cjohn] 18/4/2016 11:47

Hi CC2014, you are a brave man, buying in on HSP. A contrarían move: may it come right for you.



Yes, I screen for companies with greatly reducde profits or newly making a loss making a loss, then for cash flow, gearing, assets and so on. (I look for the latter to tell me that the company isn't a basket case and has the financial wherewithal to survive.)

There are plenty of sites offering such facilites for a small sum ( or free.) I use Sharelockholmes.


ps. The latest update of the various coal prices I have is that they continue to fall. Ugh.

[cc2014] 14/4/2016 12:59

Thanks for taking the time to post CJohn. Appreciate it.

I wonder - the screen you run for distressed turnarounds - is this something you buy/have put together yourself and would you mind sharing a little more about it?

[cc2014] 14/4/2016 12:56

I have added today as I'm a dirty bottom picker ;-)

Seriously oil and commodities have all bounced way off the bottom now and in this phase the second line stocks tend to lag. Oil I understand has crossed it's 200MA so that's a really strong signal

At the moment I perceive someone is selling and taking their losses as presumably they've made some money on the recent rise to pay for it. This is not unusual and tends to happen - I see it on a couple of other commodity related stocks as well.

If this is the bottom there is very reasonable upside for a bounce off an oversold position.

I will decide later whether this is a short term hold for a couple of months or whether I'm holding on for the big rise

[cjohn] 14/4/2016 10:04

Well, this company have come up on a screen I run for distressed turnaround possiblities. But having taken a closer look, there seems almost no possibility of a turn around. The core business is going. And I don't see they have sufficient FCF to fund significant acquisitions. The acquisition they have made looks speculative to say the least, though to be fair, the Price paid wasn't extortionate. (Great posts, Muckshifter et al.)

The property assets per se don't support the current share Price and besides will take years to realize.


The only posible salvation here is the redemption of coal. A tiny possibility of that happening.


So I'm ducking this one - for now. Good luck to holders.

[meijiman] 17/3/2016 16:12

Just looks like a car crash here. Huge strategic errors have been made and the share price has tanked. What is going to change things around? Buying other businesses might help in the longer term. An utter disaster really.

[castleford tiger] 16/3/2016 16:04

HOLDING IT DOWN?

Whats holding it down is the difficult area the company trades in.

When the Directors start buying it will look cheap.

Till they throw money at it ,it remains high risk

tiger

[archibald meatpants] 16/3/2016 15:59

Wigwammer?

[cc2014] 09/3/2016 19:11

Large trade at 199.0 today - presumably accounts for what's been holding the price down.

[cc2014] 24/2/2016 22:36

XD tomorrow 1.7p

[wigwammer] 22/2/2016 22:59

CT - the main point of generating op profit is to build equity. They have equity in spades. Even during the annus horribilis you describe the equity hasn't fallen a great deal. They generated cash and paid down liabilities. These are facts. Not stories. Go look. Any clue they might be able to continue doing this.."the Board is confident that profitability can be maintained even in the face of such severe market conditions. The Board has already taken significant steps in reducing costs and restructuring the Group and these efforts are ongoing."Which of the areas you list may have a viable future? It doesn't matter - the house is already paid off. At a push - any and all areas may be salvageable at some level - commodity prices may rise, government policy may change, competitors may get into distress and leave the market, capacity may come out etc. Things aren't that predictable. You may be right near term - news flow might drag it lower. But you haven't really engaged my points - the movement in liabilities, tangible equity, and lower valuation suggest the investment has rarely been better protected. There is little evidence of the dramatic destruction you describe. Yes profits/turnover have fallen - but fixed costs are covered and the equity position appears stable. If you called this a few years back and the environment that goes with it - congratulations. Unlike some self professed experts here you appear capable of sharing some knowledge. But the problem with maintaining a negative position ad infinitum is that, unlike a few years ago, everyone now agrees with you (and they've already sold).

[castleford tiger] 22/2/2016 18:06

Wigwammer

I think you are getting hung up on a part of the accounts.
The business carries fixed costs which yes they are trying to reduce. Headcount/fleet size etc.

What or which part of the business do you see generating profit going forward?

coal mining?
coal sales/distribution?
Haulage? general
haulage biomass?
plant business just bought?
service contracts?

I think the risk reward ratio needs to be much higher in the shareholders favour before this looks cheap.
Since GB took 8 million quid out just over 2 years ago its been downhill.
If the shares are so cheap just 25% of what he sold them for why is he not buying them back?

good luck
tiger

[wigwammer] 22/2/2016 17:14

Purchased more today at 205p.News flow may remain weak in which case I will consider adding further.Value will out!