Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[growthpotential] 10/6/2021 18:11

HL my second biggest holding but I did trim some to put into a higher risk venture elsewhere. Still very long this behemoth

[ochs] 09/6/2021 17:40

@micha14 I agree that recently there's been a 'flow' of people investing in shares as a speculation, but whilst this helps dealing volumes (and commission) in the short term I'm not sure it'll make a huge dent in HL's recurring revenues. This is because they still make the vast majority of their money from clients who invest for the long term in funds.

I'm not aware of any further changes in regulation in the last 2 or 3 years to encourage saving for retirement? (other than things that have already come in over the last 10 years such as pensions auto-enrolment).

[ochs] 09/6/2021 17:12

@lomax99 I think you're right about the untapped savings market - there are estimated to be £billions in low interest or no interest bank accounts. The question is how to entice these people to move the money? Would the incentive to get a little more interest via Active Savings be enough on it's own? Many wouldn't want to take the risk of investing away from cash. Perhaps a TV advertising campaign specifically for Active Savings is going to be required?

[ochs] 09/6/2021 17:09

Yes, it's become rather dull... stuck between 1630 and 1690 for ages now!

[porsche1945] 09/6/2021 14:43

Wish this tedious trading stock would just hurry up and tank back to 15 so I can trade it again back to 16.50. 17 and above just gets altitude sickness.

[lomax99] 26/5/2021 20:41

Growth - probably from continuing to entice a fraction of UK’s huge cash savings market to try to achieve an acceptable rate of return on their savings.

[micha14] 26/5/2021 20:39

where do you expect this 'flows growth' to come from?-
There is a record amount of people going into investment/stock speculation
Regulation which encourages to save for retirement
Also, equity funds dont wish to deal with consumers and become closed ended so HL picks up the biz
Quantitative easing which we saw- money needs to go somewhere, it even goes into bitcoin
Record amount of speculation/dealing- AMC, GAMESTOP etc
Interest rate rises will help active savings
HL is the next charles shwab
+ the stock market appreciation itself, of say 3-5percent

[ochs] 26/5/2021 17:41

Sounds great on paper chaps, but where do you expect this 'flows growth' to come from?

Also bear in mind that the competition is (finally) beginning to get smarter and HL's service isn't necessarily as spot on as it was 5 years ago.

That's before you factor in the risk of a big US competitor properly muscling in on the UK market and undercutting HL.

[micha14] 26/5/2021 16:00

Yes, plus the dividend 3pc. So flows growth of 7pc(very conservative) plus dividend 3pc= 10pc. Leads to 26.50 per share at multiple of 30. Thats 15pc compound annual from here.

[growthpotential] 26/5/2021 13:57

£25 certainly seems a conservative fair value. Markets and flows growing at 7%. Net income in 3 years is 315 * 1.07^3 = 385. For the multiple I think 30 tops which leads to 2,500p / share

[micha14] 22/5/2021 14:14

I ll even show how. 315m x 1.15 x 1.15 x 1.15= 480m in 36 months. Multiple of 34= 480 x 35 (why not as it becomes well established)= 16800/ 475m shares= 35£ a share.

[micha14] 22/5/2021 14:10

Nonsense. This business makes 10 times the money that its property plant and equipment is worth. Scale economics in a growth industry. Highest quality business and management. Net earnings 315m end of next month. current valuation 7795m minus cash 400m= 7600/ 315m= 24 Multiple for a business which is likely to grow faster in the next 10 years than in the last 10 years. So free chas flow yield here is 4pc+ growth 13pc= 17pc + slight rerating to a PE of 30+.Its a doubler in the next 36 months once investors wake up to the fact that the game has changed, more volatility, more sharedealing, more people DIYing it. DOUBLER in next 36 months. BUY every share

[porsche1945] 22/5/2021 12:30

Hargreaves takes step down after analysts struggle to see growth

Headline from `Times today, seems the better analyses agree with me, going nowhere, trading stock only. The HL platform also is tbh pretty sxxt these days, like something from the dial-up era.

Apple and Amazon looking great buys at the mo, buy either of those and I think you could be looking at a 30 pc gain over next year plus you will be inUSD rather than basket case sterling which will be back at 1.17 in a year after the next winter lockdowns in U.K., inevitable....so you should make 20 pc there as well.

[growthpotential] 22/5/2021 11:26

Wouldn't say a few pence below 1700 calling it right lol

[porsche1945] 21/5/2021 13:19

@lomaz

Adult learning closed at the moment for you hahaha. Seems like I called this bang on, as usual.

[growthpotential] 20/5/2021 18:41

Big buy gone through for 336k share quality, wonder who that was

[ochs] 18/5/2021 14:44

You can make a lot more than 'pocket change' by sensible regular trading. HL has a range of around £15 to just over £17, and has done for quite a few months now, so it's a great trading share. For long term holders buying on the dips and enjoying the dividends is an equally valid strategy.

There's strong resistance/support at 1693p which is why the price is currently stuck around £17.

[lomax99] 18/5/2021 12:52

Filter the troll, don't feed it!

[growthpotential] 18/5/2021 12:45

And then when this blows over you'll miss the big rise up. This coupled with lost dividends surely worth more than pocket change you making by trading?

[porsche1945] 18/5/2021 10:55

As I said, cant hold 1700. It isnt family owned, not sure where you are getting that? Special needs Micha quotes Landsdowne, FYI Lindsell Train (god knows why) own THREE TIMES more shares in the company than Little-gypo -Lansdowne.

There is defo an overhang from Hargreaves selling, Woodford fiasco ( this “ they were lied to “ stuff is drivel, grow up, they kept a dogsxxt fund on their “ Best Buy “ list for two years that was to anyone with an IQ above 50 a load of capital destructive back brexit britain dross whilst shunning top funds like Fundsmith which is very suspicious) and possible entry of a huge American player like Robin Hood which would wipe out HL and Aj Bell et al on their trading fee income overnight.

Have taken profits, will go back in at 1550 and better, trading share only.

[micha14] 14/5/2021 15:27

It is owned by the family of Hagreaves, the family of Landsdown! I agree with HL management not commenting the Woodford as its not worth the comment, as every comment on it is reputation damage. When CEO was asked on the Feb call, he just said "no comment". I welcome the owners selling further shares too as i am a long term holder and " The market may ignore biz success for a while but eventually will confirm it". The important thing is not woodford but 20pc YoY revenue growth and 15pc increase in clients. I d expect this to be 20£ in 12 months.

[ochs] 14/5/2021 10:51

Yes, I've read the letter. I think it came as a big shock to HL that Woodford had lied to them (on more than 1 occasion). They'd been so chummy with him, that it must have felt like quite a betrayal.

In my view HL shouldn't have been so chummy - I think they have now learnt a harsh lesson, not to always trust what a fund manager says, but make sure it is backed up by their own extensive research. Whilst HL's fund research has never been provided as 'financial advice', there's no doubt that many clients have in the past relied on it, and trusted it - thankfully in the vast majority of cases, this trust had resulted in positive financial gains for those clients.