Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 14/8/2023 09:48

Down 64pc over 5 years….probably about inline with most of the ftse tbh, almost all of it has been cut in half since 2018. 6 Companies holding the whole index vaguely “ up “. Builders stacking up as a great short…following 08/2014 charts, which would indicate financials are as well, junk like NatWest a great target, would suggest in the money puts exp end of next year, recession kicks in 4th quarter/1st quarter 2024 should see Oct lows revisited late spring, has to be the trade to go for, short it. U.K. of course with particular acute set of problems ( political basket case ).

[ochs] 10/8/2023 20:17

@gunman - this year they added a Q4 trading update and have thus delayed the full year results until Sept - so you need to look at the RNS from 19 July to get a picture of the year to 30 June 2023.

[lomax99] 10/8/2023 13:22

Final Results due 19/9/23.

[guman] 10/8/2023 13:07

final results on 10/8/23?

[stoopid] 04/8/2023 14:10

Seeing that the trading range has been 760 to 950 for the last 12 months I am so annoyed I didn't sell at 920 recently when I had the chance. Would be buying back in today and gaining 10% more shares...... Damn....

[ochs] 03/8/2023 17:18

I agree about the 5% yield looking less attractive when some longer term rates are now up to that level. For example HL Active Savings now offers 5.8% on a 1 year fixed term without any downside risk.

US and German markets are still historically high, and so this weeks' falls shouldn't affect the bottom line too much at this stage. I mean Germany made a new all time high as recently as Monday!

[pugugly] 03/8/2023 10:48

Most asset managers falling as AUM's falling with a declining market - Cash now earning 5% approx.
Also low cost ETF's now outperforming many discretionary managers.

[jubberjim] 03/8/2023 09:44

Don t often agree with you Porsche as I find you a rude malodorous blowhard but

I thought that was the way this was heading few months ago but it went the other way up to 900 level.

So be careful what you wish for

I have the same opinion on Abdn but those share buybacks have been well orchestrated and have confounded my expectations

Never mind will all be out in the wash next week

Moderation in everything is the way to go?

[porsche1945] 02/8/2023 16:46

My target for this 550 by this time next year, U.K. recession kicks in 4th quarter, hardcore drop through first and second quarter 2024. I’m buying sept 24 in the money Puts. There are no buyers for U.K. shares anymore, since brexit it has been eye watering net outflows, U.K. pensions and insurers have less than 2pc in U.K. market ( in the US they have 44pc in their own markets ) there are not the buyers to push the stuff up. So route of least resistance is down, now with T bills almost 6 pc even the dividend stuff is pointless. As I can’t stand that lying brexit pusher Hargreaves watching his wealth being vaporised since 2016 quite amusing, take back control haha, of what exactly??

[bend1pa] 02/8/2023 15:19

It isn't going to hold £8 for much longer with this downward momentum. I can certainly see this down to the 750s again, maybe even eventually dropping through 700. But it's difficult to know what exactly is causing this, as last quarterly issued just a few weeks ago was pretty buoyant.

I think the market simply has it in for HL. as it does for a number of other companies who just cannot do right. The trouble is when companies like this disappoint the market with poor results then they crash. Results due 19th Sep.

[lomax99] 02/8/2023 10:47

This looks oversold. Now on a prospective yield of 5%, happy to add incrementally from a yield of 5.25% down, which would be c £7.80.

[ochs] 01/8/2023 11:43

HL closed at 857p yesterday, but fell rapidly past the 50% level this morning and then seems to have bounced from just above the 831.6p (62%) support.

[ochs] 31/7/2023 12:11

Sentiment has certainly taken a downward turn for HL in recent days (strange when German markets are back up making all time highs again!)

Despite closing above 918.8p for 1 day, the market has now taken HL down towards the 50% support level at 853p. The first support at 874.5p failed to hold on Friday.

If 853p doesn't hold on a closing day basis then the next support would be the 62% Fibonacci at 831.6p.

[ochs] 25/7/2023 14:55

It has been a fast move up, but I don't think we'll go all the way back to £8 (or 790p) for the moment - although if the wider market falls a lot then it could easily be on the cards.

For now the first main support would be the 38% Fibonacci at 874.5p. (this is based on the 943.9p recent high to the early July low of 762.2p)

[stoopid] 25/7/2023 07:47

Back to 800 again?

[lomax99] 25/7/2023 05:01

Deutsche downgrades Hargreaves to 'sell' Deutsche Bank has downgraded Hargreaves Lansdown (HL) to 'sell' after an 'overreaction' to inflation data that saw the shares soar 20% in a fortnight. Analyst Rhea Shah downgraded her recommendation from 'hold' to 'sell' and reduced the target price from 880p to 790p on the Citywire Elite Companies plus-rated investment platform, which slumped 1.8%, or 16p, to 911p on Monday. 'Hargreaves Lansdown's shares have risen 20% over the last two weeks, which we view as an overreaction to the recent inflation data and fourth quarter trading update – both of which were admittedly better than market expectations,' Shah said. 'At these levels, we feel cautious on the medium-term outlook for the group and see more downside than upside.' Shah predicted that UK investor sentiment 'will take a while to recover which in turn could keep flows muted in the short term', and earnings could remain flat over the medium-term, which is 'worrying for a company in a high-growth sub-sector'. 'As such, combining our cautious stance with our new target price of 790p, we see enough downside to downgrade our rating to a 'sell'.'

[lomax99] 22/7/2023 09:13

The Times today:Contributing to the upward march was Hargreaves Lansdown, which rose 17p, or 1.9 per cent, to 927p as investors took Jefferies' advice to buy shares in the DIY investment platform.While the broker's analysts are aware of rising competition and demographic headwinds, they are confident that Hargreaves' new senior team will be able to persuade the market that broadening its offering into advice and guidance can work.

[lomax99] 21/7/2023 22:12

John Rosier in the IC recently added:I bought Hargreaves on 7 June at 825.6p. It has undergone a considerable derating in recent years – the share price is down 67 per cent from its peak in May 2019. That has left the valuation looking very attractive. Given the drop in margins, I can understand the derating, but the current valuation ignores the underlying quality of the business and evidence that results are improving. Revenue in its Q3 ending 31 March, at £188.1mn, was 28 per cent up on the same quarter a year ago. In July 2022, forecasts were for earnings of 46p for the year just ended on 30 June – forecasts are now 43 per cent higher at 66p, but the share price hasn't moved. It is valued at 12 times June 2023 forecast earnings and has a juicy forecast yield of 5.1 per cent. I will have to wait until 19 Julyafter this article has gone to press, for a year-end update to see if my optimism is misplaced.

[ochs] 21/7/2023 18:09

They've already said no Special this year, but there'll probably be a small increase in the Final.

Closed above 918.8p today, so from a charting point of view the next target price in this current uptrend should be 1,024p (Feb high).

[stoopid] 21/7/2023 15:02

Special Divi this year? Maybe?

[ochs] 20/7/2023 17:10

So the 918.8p resistance has held for now, but still in a strong position.

@giltedge1, Peter H has been saying that for some time, but there's nothing at this stage to suggest HL will be changing their plans for Strategic Spending on IT and advice etc. I agree with him about the Chairperson - she surely can't have been worth what she was paid!

[giltedge1] 20/7/2023 09:55

Rise upwards was from a 'perfect storm' of positive news, reasonable announcement, chairman stepping down, Peter Hargreaves stepping up finally & advising the obvious, too many staff, wasting funds on new wealth Mgt IT. Coupled with short covering & share undervalued anyway, should be nearer £10.

[ochs] 20/7/2023 09:44

Now testing the all important 61.8% resistance at 918.8p - could be a good point to short for those who think they'll fall back?

AJB figures to 30 June were ok, but their statement didn't come over as positive as HL the day before.