Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[ochs] 15/3/2023 11:07

Germany 40 tanking too!

[thomstar] 15/3/2023 10:35

The markets are tanking again, must be tory budget time again then

[ochs] 15/3/2023 09:54

Looks like HL followed Schwab down on Fri/Mon. Interesting that their clients were actually adding cash to their accounts during Friday.

[bend1pa] 14/3/2023 17:10

'The company has lost its way....'
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Somehow, I doubt that.

[ochs] 14/3/2023 11:37

Good budget news on pensions giving HL shares a boost, so we may not quite make 750p?

[action] 14/3/2023 08:17

still waiting for 750p

[ochs] 13/3/2023 10:35

Hi @Porsche1945, recent developments certainly support your arguments about housing, so thanks for the update. As you say, markets are now very nervous on financials and insurers.

Would you recommend IG for spreads? My previous provider (ovalX/ETX) closed and moved me to Capital.com, but I'm not so sure about them so far.

[porsche1945] 13/3/2023 10:17

Hi, on the housing shares….with what’s happening now with banks, this new narrative going on….banks will have to raise deposit rates to attract capital to bolster reserves, will vaporise their profits but the big thing is they will have to cut lending, preserve capital, housing is probably 30 pc over valued….I honestly think housing stocks are heading back to 2008 melt down pricing, there is a 100pc short profit, just buy a few long dated puts on builders and U.K. banks, you can’t go wrong. Insurers looking dodgy too as their long dated bonds are getting destroyed in value.

[ochs] 12/3/2023 11:19

Yes, well done! So what's your current price target @NOVECKINGOOD? You expecting lower than 735p (oct low)?

[noveckingood] 12/3/2023 08:56

Said to avoid these in January when they were 960, it was an easy short not a buy and hold.

The company has lost its way and there are pressures on margins which will only get worse. And the threat of the inevitable market correction which has only just started.

Maybe some should have listened..

[jubberjim] 11/3/2023 15:10

Is very difficult to call this

The fallout? From events over the pond might initially see an uptick in deals being done as people may panic sell but to do that you need to provide up to date prices which in a nervous market brokers such as Hargreaves will struggle if past experience is anything to go on.

And having sold investors will be loath to rush in in the short term to provide bids for shares as they hold on to the money garnered .
I don t know about twin horns of a dilemma but triple that up with between a rock and a hard place and is going to be very difficult at a time when punters are keen to use up their remaining ISA allowance ahead of budget

Why does this ???? Always occur at this time talk about the ides of march

Will just have to hang on in there this time small amount of cash left to invest but might have to sit on hands a while longer

Hopefully this time round declared dividends will be honoured although there is a caveat in the last bit of the final results of some companies that this not be the case in certain circumstances

Never say never hang onto you hats and your money until bit more certainty ensues

Good luck everyone for next week

[ochs] 11/3/2023 14:02

Thanks re: housebuilders @Porsche1945, I'll take another look.

So it didn't take long for HL to fall under £8 again! The shares seem to have been badly hit by the Silicon Valley Bank story, although seems overdone for HL when they are mostly an investment provider and hold no debts. AJ Bell who operate a similar business were hardly hit at all by the news.

From a charting point of view the next target looks to be the 735p low from Oct 2022 as all other support has failed.

[bend1pa] 11/3/2023 10:37

"raising rates into a recession is unheard of..."
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Firstly, we are not in a recession - yet, despite most economic pundits saying we would have been in one by now. Secondly, interest rates were raised during Thatcher's early period (early 80s) while manufacturing industry in the UK was undergoing a serious recession.

[jubberjim] 10/3/2023 14:00

Thanks will do

[wilksey1] 10/3/2023 13:57

try this site think its there

[jubberjim] 10/3/2023 13:44

Silly question possibly

At what time GMT are jobless figures out please

Thanks

[porsche1945] 10/3/2023 10:46

@ Ochs….the property thing is really just getting started, it’s a bigger picture than just the interest rates, the U.K. economy is shot to pieces, weak sterling always sucking in inflation, capital because of brexit has been flooding OUT of U.K. since 2016, end of help to buy which was creating crazy distortions anyway, cost of living endlessly rising, I actually think what will happen this time is worse than 08, raising rates into a recession is unheard of and 800,000 mortgages rolling off fixed rate by June will creat massive issues, property cycles are on average 7/8 years and we are 12 months into this downturn. The capital builders have on their balance sheets is really not that great and would be vaporised pretty quick when prices really go negative. Iv made good money on IG Index on Persimmon, bought puts at 22.80, should have started sooner but they are seriously in the money. Still plenty of time to get in.

[action] 10/3/2023 10:22

Below 800p after long time. Still waiting

[ochs] 08/3/2023 20:50

I think HL could re-test the lows if there's a proper market correction again (probably led by the US) but otherwise it may hold above £8.

@Porsche1945 people like you currently choosing to hold cash rather than invest, is one of the reasons why HL are doing well. As you know they make a much higher basis point from cash than anything else. If rates go higher as you suggest that goes straight to HL's bottom line - especially if even more clients decide to hold cash.

With regards to UK housebuilders I think you're wrong, and it won't be anything like 2007/08 - for one thing most of them have a much stronger balance sheet than in those days. There's also a difference in quality - for example Persimmon's statement and dividend cut hasn't been taken well (1 March) but Taylor Wimpey (2 March) sounded more upbeat and actually increased their dividend and hence the shares have outperformed Persimmon since - infact they announced today that BlackRock have increased from 11.9% to 12.7%.

I actually think the Bank of England will probably continue to be more cautious than the Fed (despite higher inflation) due to the weakness of the UK economy.

[action] 08/3/2023 09:13

Still waiting for 750p

[ochs] 06/3/2023 18:50

Berenberg 'hold' recommendation at 835p, although increase in target price from 925p to 960p.

[lomax99] 02/3/2023 17:53

Blink and you would have missed that miss!

[ochs] 02/3/2023 17:25

@ACTION nearly right, think it was down 22p at one point, although finished down 15p.

[lomax99] 02/3/2023 15:53

Waiting patiently to top up at your promised discount.......