Hambledon Mining Share Discussion Threads

[timgw] 16/12/2013 10:58

I'm getting worried - now very near to an overall profit after five years dealings! To quote from that song, do I stay or do I go..! If it doubles from here I might even make up my loss on MWA!

[chipperfrd] 16/12/2013 10:21

Looks like the early conversion was required in order to satisfy the debt/equity covenant conditions for the EBRD loan.

Overall it looks favourable for HMB in terms of eliminating the interest on the convertible loan as well as reinforcing the significant financial commitment of AR to the company.

I note the final comment in the RNS - "African Resources has made it clear to the board that it will facilitate future liquidity in the Company's shares."

The onus is now with them to drive up the value of the company to the level where they can distribute portions of their holdings to a wider investor base.
Chip

[lfdkmp] 16/12/2013 09:05

Yes, they can dilute me all the way up to a 4 bagger!

[phillis] 16/12/2013 08:32

B hell!

I have been diluted again...
and my shares have gone up 12%!!!!!!

[aaaaar] 16/12/2013 07:43

So they have turned down a 7%+ coupon and paid 32% premium to convert!

Onwards....

[keepitsimple] 15/12/2013 14:59

From the interim results,
"Repayment terms for the return of US$2 million agreed with the vendors of Akmola Gold during the period and the Company expects to recover funds in December 2013"
It will be interesting to see if AR pull this off.

[sandeels] 12/12/2013 23:46

Chip
Agreed and let's hope so. Cheap share price and production costs, if management deliver we are in for a ride. Let alone if pog does what it should.

Been following your threads for years, thanks and keep up the great work
Sandeels

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2013 22:12

sandeels,

Well, as AR put up all the cash via the convertible loan, it is basically their cash which is at risk. Frankly, it is very likely (IMO) that they already knew a great deal about the Kara deposit before they bought in to HMB.

From the outset they talked about merging other assets into HMB - this looks very much like one which they had in mind a year ago when they made the partial offer for HMB.

Not much point making over-egged claims about a deposit that will eventually get a CPR unless they were pretty sure that it is everything they claim - and have paid for.

If it does turn out to have 9m extractable oz then at c. $3.06/oz it will be one of the cheapest (if not the cheapest!) world class deposits globally.
Chip

[sandeels] 12/12/2013 20:54

For management to indicate an increase in reserves from 1.8 to 6m oz at 5.34g/t they must be confident that the Venmyn Deloite CPR early 2014 will confirm the figs and that seems plausible. Paying $27m for data reputing 9m oz at Kara which has not been independently verified seems less so. Certainly hope it turns out to be the case but can't help feeling that if it sounds too good to be true...
Nice pennant for the chartists so wonder which way it'll break. Bought at 1.35 so not complaining, yet.

[aaaaar] 11/12/2013 13:59

Oh sorry for the confusion.

[nickdr99] 11/12/2013 13:29

No. The count. Post 17161

[aaaaar] 11/12/2013 12:18

nickdr99 - If thats meant for nutty I think you have a typo there.

[nickdr99] 11/12/2013 11:28

Count - are you invested here or watching if you don't mind me asking. Any views on hmb prospects. I value your views from AFF days. Been on my radar for a while and looks more interesting with recent announcements. Good value at this level?

[phillis] 11/12/2013 09:57

well that's clear then....

[chestnuts] 10/12/2013 17:52

Phillis

I havent looked but i would interested who they bought the mine next door off, for all we know it could have been themselves, any decent CEO would have had a jorc before announcing any thing to the market, as for the listing if they do delist they will have saved themselves around £8m so far if they have a right issue and raise another £8m if they ever do delist they will have saved themselves alot of money to fund the capex for the mine.

[almost] 10/12/2013 12:09

Indeed. I am quite convinced that they want, and will keep, the listing.

[phillis] 10/12/2013 10:03

indeed Chip
what is the point of having a listed Company if you immediately take steps that are designed to bring about a delisting

They could have bought the residual 40% for a pittance
and we are now being asked to believe that they are going to pay more to squeeze the minority out?

Laughable!

[king suarez] 09/12/2013 18:41

Thanks Chip, food for thought.

I'm just a little sceptical being that the last management had costs running at c$1,500 per oz!

I have followed this stock (without investing) for a few yrs due to the large resource potential. It is tempting but I've gotten 1st degree burns from the mining sector over the last few yrs! (who hasn't?)

[chipperfrd] 09/12/2013 17:59

Simple logic and economics dictate that the family who have put up all the cash to get HMB back on the road again are far more likely to gain financially by keeping the company listed.

The convertible loan is convertible at 3p (still nearly 50% above current SP) and they are saleable, so the loan notes provide a useful way of bringing larger players on board if required.

AR only wished to purchase 60% of HMB 12 months ago when they could have so easily bid for the lot. So far they have laid out £12m for their 60% and another £17m for the Kara ore field deal. The best way to get an early return on that cash outlay is surely to build up the investment potential of the company to the point when they can distribute some of their share/convertible surplus at a higher price, yet still retain a controlling stake.

They actually need $100m in development capex over the next three years (the $130m is over the 22yr LoM) so it is quite possible that a low capex, truck & shovel operation at Kara might well provide much of that cash - it remains to be seen what their plans are once the license to exploit is received, but that would appear the most likely scenario as it re-deploys all the current mobile equipment that is used on their present open pit and which would otherwise become redundant by 2015.

I like the risk/reward here and things do look decidedly better than they did 12 months ago :-)
Chip

[goatherd] 09/12/2013 16:46

They can try - but at any stage, not just 75%.

The Companies Act is totally clear - if 90% of shares bid for accept then the remainder can be forced to sell. Otherwise not. Try Googling it.

Mark you it does take some balls to keep shares you can no longer trade!

[chestnuts] 09/12/2013 16:41

goat herd

I thought and some one please correct me, once they get to 75% ownership of a company they can take it private,

[goatherd] 09/12/2013 12:25

In order to make their shares saleable they have to keep on the market, and in order to do that, the market requires a certain amount of liquidity. Of course they may decide they do not want to be able to sell shares - but many companies do.

Of course they can make an offer at any time - but, unless 90% of the outstanding shareholders accept, they cannot compel anyone to accept.

[king suarez] 09/12/2013 12:16

"so what as long as they pay the appropriate price"

Quite. So how does one guarantee they would pay a 'decent price' in the event of taking it private? They will have complete control over the company with c80% of shares so they can vote any deal through?

This is the major risk. Do you know what their intentions will be for sure?