Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 08/9/2020 11:17

A quid a share as a punt, declining business model, in a declining country. Why bother?

[diohohku] 08/9/2020 10:28

discodave45 is share worth a punt

[discodave45] 08/9/2020 10:21

Think I'll wait for their interims to see wtf is going on here. Best wishes to those holding and those buying today.

[poikka] 08/9/2020 10:19

"Liquidity was strong throughout the period, with net cash of £105m on 21 August 2020, approximately £70m better than the same date last year,"

Actually, I'm not comfortable with that announcement, it doesn't tie-in with previous information.

[discodave45] 08/9/2020 10:18

They seem to be sending mixed messages, even if H2 is "normal" / as per H2 FY19, then underlying PBT would be c £28m, as you say that's around £60m for the year, up 7% to last year (not 3x).That said, their forecasts are usually spot on so I'm baffled as to how bad, and why, their best case £20m for the year would still be valid.I'm wondering if in their July scenarios/forecasts they were forecasting H2 and not the full year? (H1 £35m-£40m, H2 £20m best case scenario). But they clearly stated the Rev and profit scenarios were for the full year FY21.

[poikka] 08/9/2020 10:15

Woah! you're right, I read FY21 and not 'H1 FY21 PBT1 is expected to be in the range of £35-40m'.

WTF do they write H1 FY, and not H1 21? To confuse careless readers like me, I guess.

Well that makes a big difference.

[bluecash] 08/9/2020 10:02

I see the share price turning back up again now as the numbers are starting to sink in. This is likely to be a good week for the HFD shareprice imo. DYOR.

[bluecash] 08/9/2020 09:59

No, not fully valued at all. Last year's pre-tax profits were just under £20m. Halfords will do double that in H1 this year and even if the second half is only half as good (say £20m - and they're probably being pessimistic again when they say H2 might not match H1) a cautious £60m pre-tax is three times better than last year and gives a P/E of about 5. Just 5! I reckon this has to hit £4+ by end of year if the business ONLY manages to achieve £60m pre-tax. Overall, it's looking very good indeed, with management hiding its light under a bushel (as my grandad used to say).

[poikka] 08/9/2020 09:32

Fully valued for the time being at 1/10 of Mcap, unless someone wants their cashflow.

[kendonagasaki] 08/9/2020 09:30

City not convinced?Covid sales are a one off for them as everything else was shut?Tough economic recession is looming for all retailers.They another 6 months to prove they are a competent retailer.

[amt] 08/9/2020 09:16

I sold out at the previous update as I was mistified as to how bad the projections were when I had expected everything to be in their favour. Now it seems the projections were wrong and everything is looking very rosy indeed. Lucky for the fall today as got back in again at similar price to what I sold at. I agree 3 to 4 quid is fair value and perhaps if a golden era of cycling is beg much higher than that.

[rachet1] 08/9/2020 09:09

Lol. Brilliant results and the shareprice goes down! Looks like a shakeout? Previous projections look like a big undershoot now.

[amt] 08/9/2020 09:06

Bought more at 1.74p. Would be rude not to. I reckon 1.90p finish today after analysts have checked it out. After all it's a defensive play as Covid uncertainty gathers pace.

[truthandnumbers] 08/9/2020 09:01

Car sales are up - good for Halfords. Staycations up - good for Halfords. Govt subsidising cycling and building cycle lanes everywhere - good for Halfords. Electric bikes and scooters becoming massively popular - good for Halfords. Plus the covid hiatus has given the business a kick up the rear to rationalise/economise. I reckon this will be better than the olympic year for the business: £3+ by next results.

[bluecash] 08/9/2020 08:52

Agreed. The management put a big dose of CYA into their forecasts a couple of months back. This update looks as though they've been way too pessimistic. On these numbers, HFD will do about 4 times better for the full year than their most optimistic forecast from two months back. Looking like a strong buy to me with an early return to dividends.

[amt] 08/9/2020 08:47

The fcasts were way too pessimistic. Surely a good profit now in H2 so perhaps 50m profit. I have changed my mind after selling out earlier at 1.78.Back in at 1.83.

[akbar1] 08/9/2020 08:33

Dum English white bois no lisen

[discodave45] 08/9/2020 08:33

If H1 pbt £35 to £40m and their forecasts for the year are still valid (which is what they've stated) then H2 is likely to be a significant loss.

[mercer95] 08/9/2020 08:10

The Group delivered a strong trading performance in the period, with sales up +5.0% on a LFL basis, driven by:
o a larger cycling market and a positive impact from the current staycation trend, o the benefits of our new Group web platform, and
o increasing scale in our motoring services business.
 We delivered strong growth in our areas of strategic focus: Service-related sales were up +6.3%, B2B grew +25.9% and Online sales grew +160%. We are also on track to deliver 300 bps of gross margin improvement in our Cycling business in FY21.
 Strong strategic execution and operational agility allowed us to fully capitalise on market tailwinds
 Assuming expected demand levels in September and stability in the relative value of the US dollar,
underlying H1 FY21 PBT1 is expected to be in the range of £35-40m.

[hotfinance14] 08/9/2020 07:53

Excllent trading update.

[mercer95] 07/9/2020 17:15

This will fly like a magic carpet Akbar, you need to rub your crystal ball 🔮 harder.

[nick9013] 07/9/2020 16:32

Haha jog on we all know it's going fly tomorrow. Every Halfords up and down the county has had people standing outside it. 10% easy on good news

[akbar1] 07/9/2020 16:15

Plz I see result veri bad

[akbar1] 07/9/2020 15:55

I unsure on dis

[hotfinance14] 07/9/2020 15:15

More like 190 plus.