Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[srpactive] 29/12/2017 08:04

All good points and discussion, but could the sale
be more to do with the US issuing licences to only
whiter than white operators and it has nothing to do
with lads?

[fenners66] 29/12/2017 01:10

The disposal for €150m was factored in, giving it away for free was not.
QED its a screw up.

Your alternative view would be that they informed the market that they were to receive €150m with no intention of it actually happening - and you think that is a better position ? !!

[woodhawk] 28/12/2017 23:35

I hope you are right. coxsmn, because my experience with GVC thus far has been hugely beneficial and I would like it to continue. However, I am not blind to what I perceive as risks with the current takeover and have reservations about how it appears to be conducted. I shall continue to watch with interest. I may be wrong, but I don't think the risk is currently 'priced-in'.

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 23:22

I'm not saying gvc are infallible. I personally wouldn't invest here unless i had faith in the management and I do see huge positives with this acquisition. Of course there are risks doing a deal and not doing a deal. I feel very positive about it and i am excited about the year ahead for gvc.

[woodhawk] 28/12/2017 23:05

You make the assumption GVC are infallible. You also assume there is no execution risk when GVC have no experience of bricks and mortar - and Lads haven't done well with it either (hence the position they are currently in). That could be dangerous. "Do you think GVC would over pay to buy Lads?" - I don't know - and neither do you, despite your pompous posturing - it remains to be seen.

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 22:44

Why do you think gvc made the disposal in the first place? Do you think it had nothing to do with the Lads acquisition? Do you think the disposal is not factored into the Lads offer price? Do you think GVC would over pay to buy Lads?I'll leave you to work it out.

[woodhawk] 28/12/2017 22:37

"the offer price for Lads is adjusted to account for the £150m" - so it's suddenly become a fact now!!??

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 22:26

Fenner66, i'm afraid your not getting it. Kenny has not made a mistake, the offer price for Lads is adjusted to account for the £150m.

[fenners66] 28/12/2017 22:18

Oh come on you are sounding soooo sycophantic now , Kenny can do no wrong? !

He has a great track record and despite giving away a business in Malta has led the company from strength to strength - but does that mean you no longer question anything?

History has loads of examples of very successful people ( granted often politicians) who went a step too far - usually when people in awe of their brilliance stopped asking questions.

Most acquisitions and mergers fail.

They all come with great rationale.

As far as this one is concerned at the moment it does not yet matter whether it succeeds or not - it matters (for now) as whether the market thinks it will succeed.

The share price suggests the market thinks it will and I like a profit on shares as much as anyone else......

However I guess market volume is low due to Xmas and maybe there will still be a reaction to the news.

Then when it goes through the real test will happen.

I do not accept there was any part of the planning that they would give away the €150m so that is a screw up and he is as accountable for that as his successes.

Ranieri won the Premier League - but it did not save his job.


PS - I looked at buying Lads shares a few years ago and decided against it and bought more GVC instead
That was not a mistake.

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 21:04

Srp, exactly, £150m factored into the offer price for Lads.

[srpactive] 28/12/2017 21:02

All

Good views and all comments welcome.

My view on this is the Lads shareholders etc have requested
this to be done before the deal can go ahead, so KA could
have made an offer to allow for the £150m less than he
might have.

I stand to be corrected as always, I hope everyone had a good Christmas break,


active

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 20:58

Trentboy, exactly, i'm glad you get it!

[trentendboy] 28/12/2017 20:51

It is an essential deal. If Lads fell to someone else there are just not enough good assets left.This is why they have to work quick.As stated below it is all about economies of scale on the technology, marketing and head office staff.Margins are so thin that size is really crucial.Kenny knows the game.Have faith

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 20:37

Ps if you don't get how good a deal this is or don't trust the best management team in the business then it is best to invest elsewhere. I do get it and do trust the management hence i'm invested here and so is the smart money.

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 20:25

Fenners66, of course there is a cost but the reason for doing a deal is because it makes business sense. The sums stack up and the net result will be increased profits. Its all about economy of scale and as more and more countries move to regulate margins get squeezed. Look at 888 who lost the bwin deal, they posted a loss and their profit margins are being squeezed and this will continue. Plenty of people doubted the BwinParty acquisition and it was Kenny's best ever deal so far.

[woodhawk] 28/12/2017 18:49

I was doubtful re the Lads deal in the first instance - but with all the (unnecessary?) haste, and now the Turkish write-off too, I'm getting increasingly uneasy about this deal. I have no position in GVC currently, though for tax reasons alone I was considering a substantial reinvestment - but am still sitting on my hands (and previously accrued profits).

[fenners66] 28/12/2017 18:48

The bigger picture is that he wants to get GVC into the FTSE but at what cost?
How long before we have dividends reinstated ?
At what level?

The balance sheet may have got a lot bigger but if he had written off €150m 5 years ago most here would have been apoplectic.
5 years on €150m has not gotten smaller its still a huge sum of money and when businesses get to the size where prudence goes out of the window and the MD sets the tone by throwing away huge sums of money , what happens next ?

[oohrogerpalmer] 28/12/2017 18:48

Fenners,
I assume from your post that you will have sold off your holding!!!!
If not I would then assume you have a deep down feeling that Kenny could pull this off.

[noujay] 28/12/2017 18:32

150m over five years that is. I suspect the synergies and huge additional customer base will comfortably compensate for yhis

[coxsmn] 28/12/2017 17:40

Fenners66, its the big picture that is important, Kenny is doing a deal which will have the net result of significantly increasing company profits.

[garycook] 28/12/2017 17:32

fenners.Send an email to the HR dept at GVC,and see what responce you get ?

[fenners66] 28/12/2017 17:20

Kenny has previous for this kind of manoeuvre , giving away businesses worth millions.

Some years ago I had a beef with the idea of giving away a business in Malta (if I recall correctly) .
For that reason I held back investing. Others said - no worries think about the bigger picture.

So in time I did buy and the shares have done very well since.

However this is a much bigger give-away.

The market assumes £100m synergies a year ?

Well there is usually a shortfall or at least a ramping up to get to those synergies - this will write off perhaps 2 years of them.

As shareholders we have been cheated out of €150m of dividends if nothing else. So is Kenny and the board that signed this off going to work for free for 2 years or more to help pay for their haste and dare I say it incompetence?

Yes we have all benefited from the share price rise - Kenny I suspect more than most - so if he can hide behind that to explain away €150m then I can say he also has been fairly rewarded so they can give back their salary when they give away our cash.

As for the valuation in the first place - what would they have got on the open market - after all the great KA bought the business.

It smacks of a man who is believing his own propaganda and has gone so far he believes he is invincible - a Napoleon 1812 moment ?

We questioned the buying of bricks and mortar , we questioned the remuneration policy, others are questioning the chairmanship - well €150m would pay an awful lot of redundancies...... great leaders are great until they screw up and then they get tagged as being mad.......

[mylands] 28/12/2017 16:22

Noujay

Interesting to see that Davidson Kempner Capital Management have now built up a short position of 3.9 million (1.2891%), two and a half times as large as their shareholding of 1.567 million. They have tripled the size of their short position in two weeks.

[noujay] 28/12/2017 15:03

I must say I am enjoying the drip of releases showing the reduction of the MW short. It's a good indicator