Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[mylands] 19/1/2018 14:34

Just to annoy Woodhawk, I will give a further piece of analysis. According to my latest spreadsheet the total short position as of today amounts to over 36 million shares (12%).

[popper joe] 19/1/2018 14:12

Noujay - A voice of reason!

[noujay] 19/1/2018 13:01

Regarding the current shorts, the majority of the companies with positions are working any disparity between prices as an arbitrage play. They are not short because they expect the price to collapse. Once the merger completes their Lads holding converts to GVC shares, which they will then use to close out the short position. In the meantime they are simply working within a spread.Marshall Wallace however have been holding a short position hoping for future price falls and not arbitraging They have been consistently reducing this as presumably they fancy the price is not going to drop much further this no more value for them.

[woodhawk] 19/1/2018 12:48

I'm not convinced by either of those - especially the second one. Why would shorts "rush for the door" when the deal is completed? It would hardly be unexpected and it's a long way - fraught with potential problems - until the two companies operations are fully integrated. As to your first point, the deal is weighted to all poss scenarios. so why an "almighty move upwards" there?

[shayadfn] 19/1/2018 12:27

I suspect there maybe almighty upward move when the (i) Government review on gambling industry FOTB has been published and (ii) the deal to buy LCL is completed, that's when the shorters may all rush for the door, I notice that Marshall Wace, who seemed to be more experienced at shorting this stock are out of the game.

[mylands] 19/1/2018 09:52

Woodhawk

You have posted that with the institutional stake steadily rising, and yesterday's total was the highest yet at 85.5%, why the share price is under pressure.

A good reason will be the fact that the shorters are steadily increasing their exposure and currently those holding a short position of 0.5% or more have a total position of 4.96%. This is by far the highest it has been since 2015, when I started keeping an eye on the shorters in GVC.

[noujay] 19/1/2018 08:05

Thanks for that shaker. I realise many regard the IC as the kiss of death but if it is possible and not objectionable to share would be appreciated as interested in any and all commentary.

[macarona] 19/1/2018 07:21

Shaker, any chance of sharing the written piece, for non members. Feel free not to, if you object due to copyright reasons.

Mac.

[shaker44] 19/1/2018 05:45

Very positive write up in Inv chronicle today. Says gvc undervalued relative to Paddy & 888. Barclays suggest current share price values gvc at less than 10x 2021 earnings.
Likes the ladbroke deal structure.
Onwards and upwards...

[festario] 18/1/2018 16:24

Hmmm, a red day here, it puts the long term trend line under real pressure.

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 14:38

Mylands

Thank you, yes iht was a good reason, but I do hope
this will be one the grandchildren will look back on and
think well done clever old grandad active.

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 14:35

f66

Come over to aly and talk positive to me.

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 11:57

f66

Good reply, I am laughing too, I'll save you a job
do not bother you will not find one.

[fenners66] 18/1/2018 11:50

spr - laughed aloud at that one - I'll have a look

[mylands] 18/1/2018 11:49

active

Usually I am in to small cap companies, often on AIM, where you get IHT relief, so it was bad news when GVC went from AIM to a full listing. However, the pain for the next generation has been more than compensated for by the gain in the capital value.

The one big cap I hold in my SIPP is Lloyds, good yield and I think plenty of upside, especially once all the one off charges are a thing of the past. Well, that's what I am hoping for!

Small caps where I have holdings include GAN and Eckoh. GAN is a play on the US opening up which we will know when the Supreme Court announces its decision on the online betting ban currently in force in the US. This is said be issued in the Spring. Eckoh is a good company that is expanding in to the US. The shares have recently fallen back by 20%, so maybe an opportunity to buy.

But then, as I have often said, what do I know??

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 11:34

I think that is what they have in place now I believe, dyor

[exgvc] 18/1/2018 11:27

Stupid question- is there any way GVC could still own/take revenue from the Turkish business? Perhaps through a B2B service agreement?

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 11:24

f66

Good reply and there is no problem with that,
do you have a holding that you are objectively
positive on, just out of interest?

[mylands] 18/1/2018 11:20

f66

Delighted you are making a profit, long may it last!

I'm a fan of our CEO as many will know. I do not think that he is infallible but regarding the £150m that appears to have been 'given away', that is the worst case scenario.

Taken from the RNS on Oct 2nd:

'for performance related earn-out consideration of up to a maximum amount of EUR150m in cash (the "Consideration"). The Consideration is receivable on a monthly basis over a five year period.'

Who knows what might happen in Turkey during the five years, maybe even a total ban. So, I don't believe it's significant for cashflow or when you look at the size of the deal with LCL. The way the market has reacted to this backs up my analysis.

[fenners66] 18/1/2018 10:57

srp > "f66

You are very negative, seems to be a pattern."


Its not negative - its objective .

When I see stuff I think is wrong I say so - as an owner of this company I cannot get complacent and let the staff (!) get away with mistakes without saying anything. Once the staff think they are not subject to scrutiny or it does not matter any more if they make mistakes then it starts to go wrong.

Ok I don't own enough shares for them to take any notice of me but.......

You may recall I was the only one to speak out about the CLLN FD who was being lauded on the CLLN board for instigating a review into the profits - after he reported in error at the AGM that everything was fine - I did not like his behaviour and he was sacked without even a thank you a couple of months later.

Negative no - objective yes.


mylands - yes I am sat on profit - but at the moment I'm guessing that the market is in thrall enough to take the share price higher as long as they do not screw up the integration. I hate the loss of €150m but I can see my opinion does not move the share price, however if it becomes clear in the future that mistakes get made I will review.

[mylands] 18/1/2018 10:46

Looks like it is all on track.

Can someone remind me of the dividend statement, I can't find it amongst all the announcements!

[noujay] 18/1/2018 10:42

The trading update should be interesting. I emailed Lads IR a few days back but they wouldn't confirm whether they intended to issue one in line with previous years. Given the other bookies strong final quarters of 2017 based on favourable sports results Lads should follow suit.

[joeywald] 18/1/2018 10:36

Fest, that's the full results. The Scheme Document "is expected to be published and sent to Ladbrokes Coral Shareholders in early or mid February 2018" and "On the date of publication of the Scheme Document, Ladbrokes Coral will issue a further announcement containing a trading update in respect of the year ended 31 December 2017."

[festario] 18/1/2018 10:16

According to an important RNS, buried amongst the Holdings RNS's today...The Ladbrokes results will be deferred until after the deal is completed, and they expect to complete it in late Q1 or early Q2 2018.