Gusbourne Share Discussion Threads

[mastercfdtrader] 22/9/2006 22:15

ARG is valued @ approx £4 Billion and Experian @ approx £7 Billion, that means a 25-30% upside on current £9.60 level, Elsworths £8 test is load of cobblers Fortyfive

[jackohelp] 18/9/2006 21:04

Nyone taking up the sub shares in experian on demerger?

[fortyfive] 13/9/2006 13:28

little news on the demerge yet. ARG would seem to be worth c. £2 billion subject to above competitive trials, but Experian seems to be valued at up to £7-8 billion estimates and looking at their huge range of database leveraged sellables I am not surprised. I still can't see Elsworth's price of £8 being tested soon, so I will keep them until the de-merge and then dump ARG.

[spracklin] 18/8/2006 21:29

I had some trouble with Experian's "free" trial credit expert service. They sent me an email the day after my free trial expired warning me that someone had checked out my file and tried to apply for credit. I was forced to look into it, thus incurring a month's fee. Turned out to be a routine building society address/ID check at least two weeks old. Eventually got my money refunded, but sly is not the word i would use.....

Also appreaciate your comments about CW's on that thread. After some lucky breaks on the first few trades I found myself getting eaten alive by the time decay and gave much of the profit back on later trades. As you suggest it's almost impossible to make money with them.

[elsworth] 12/8/2006 01:05

This stock is looking set to becomming a recommended short.....market share is definately an issue, not only from the likes of Tesco, but other supermarkets who are happy to contribute 10% of floor space to non-food goods!

Charts showing a retest at £8-£8.25

[typo56] 11/8/2006 08:37

According to the Mail, "Tesco is secretly gearing up to launch a homewares catalogue in four weeks' time, in a move that will send shivers down the spine of rival Argos."

[grupo] 12/7/2006 08:10

GUS says Homebase sales continue to fall, margin pressure at Argos

LONDON (AFX) - GUS PLC, the retail and credit information group, said
underlying sales at its Homebase DIY chain continued to fall in its first
quarter and revealed significant margin pressure at its Argos chain of high
street catalogue shops.
The group, which plans to demerge Argos Retail Group (ARG, which consists of
Homebase and Argos) and Experian, its credit checking business, in October, also
issued a cautious outlook statement.
"In the first quarter of the financial year, the non-food, non-clothing
market in the UK was stronger than expected," it said.
"ARG remains cautious on the outlook for a recovery in the rate of growth in
consumer spending and expects the DIY market in particular to remain difficult."
However, GUS maintained all its businesses were trading in line with
internal expectations and were in "good shape" for a future as independent
companies.
For the four months to June 30 Homebase's total sales fell 1 pct and on a
like-for-like basis, which strips out the impact of new space, sales were down 5
pct. This compares to a fall of 5 pct over the previous five months.
Homebase trades from 300 stores and is the UK's second largest home
improvement retailer after Kingfisher PLC's B&Q, which is also struggling for
sales in the face of weak consumer demand.
GUS said although Homebase saw strong growth in kitchens and furniture, core
DIY and decorating ranges remained weak.
It noted that, as planned, gross margin was ahead of the previous year as a
result of a reduced level of promotional activity together with the benefits
obtained from supply chain initiatives.
Argos, which trades from 663 UK stores, saw total sales increase 14 pct in
the three months to June 30. Its like-for-like sales increased 7 pct -- an
outturn ahead of analysts' expectations and an improvement on flat underlying
sales in the previous quarter.
Consumer electronics performed very strongly, especially flat panel TVs and
set top boxes in the lead up to and during the World Cup. Argos also highlighted
good sales growth in bedroom furniture, photography and video game systems.
However, Argos' improved sales performance was "substantially offset" by a
related reduction in gross margin compared to the previous year.
This was driven by a shift in the product mix and by promotional offers in
the quarter, partially offset by benefits from supply chain initiatives.
Experian delivered another stellar performance in the three months to June
30, with sales at actual exchange rates up 23 pct and sales at constant exchange
rates up 21 pct -- organic growth of 8 pct with the balance from acquisitions.
Last week GUS revealed it had turned down several takeover approaches for
ARG and Experian, having concluded that shareholder interests are better served
by proceeding with the previously announced demerger.
The group did not name its suitors but reports suggested venture capital
groups KKR, CVC and Permira and the investment bank Goldman Sachs could be
interested.
Some analysts reckon GUS made public its rejection of the approaches to
flush out higher bids.
The demerger will see both ARG and Experian becoming independently listed on
the London Stock Exchange -- ARG in the General Retailing sector and Experian in
the Support Services sector.
At the time of the demerger GUS is also planning for Experian to raise some
800 mln stg, with up to 5 pct of the shares available to new investors.
GUS' outstanding bonds and loan notes, totaling about 2 bln stg, will be
held with Experian. This reflects ARG's significant ongoing leasehold
commitments -- over 300 mln stg a year in rent.
The demerger will mark the final chapter in the break-up of the conglomerate
formerly known as Great Universal Stores. Last year GUS disposed of Lewis, the
South African retailer and demerged its remaining 65 pct stake in luxury brand
Burberry Group PLC, and in January it sold its last remaining home shopping
business, Dutch group Wehkamp, for 320 mln eur.
GUS shares closed Tuesday at 989-1/2 pence, valuing the business at 8.78 bln
stg.


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jdd/slm

[andrewhbruce] 06/7/2006 11:11

tks matt, still look good value with demerger/takeover spec and well down from high.

[mattharrop] 05/7/2006 20:30

yep - and the price reflected that until 3.45pm! Big jump on close due to takeover announcement.
It's been rebuffed, but probably more to come

[andrewhbruce] 05/7/2006 16:49

presume they traded ex div to-day??

[andrewhbruce] 05/7/2006 16:45

presume they traded ex div to-day??

[11entrepreneur11] 07/6/2006 05:43

i envite you all to my new website where you can discuss shares and world issues the site is:

[davemake] 12/4/2006 10:21

Tue 11-Apr-06 GUS Gus Ord 29 3/43p Sell_at 1042 Stop_Loss 1074 Cls_Pr 1045

[waldron] 12/4/2006 08:00

GUS' Homebase undershoots market expectations for H2 sales

LONDON (AFX) - GUS PLC, has reported worse-than-expected second half
underlying sales at its
Homebase chain and warned on the unit's full year profit outturn, blaming a
further weakening of the UK home improvement market.
The disappointment at the DIY business overshadowed an in-line performance
from Argos, the high street catalogue retailer, and another stellar performance
from Experian, the group's credit information division.
For the five months to Feb 28 like-for-like sales at Homebase, which strips
out the impact of new space, were down 5 pct, compared to analysts' consensus
expectations of a fall of 3.5 pct and a third quarter decline of 3 pct.
Total sales at Homebase, the UK's second largest DIY retailer trading from
297 stores, fell 1 pct.
"Although kitchens and furniture showed continued strong growth core DIY and
decorating ranges showed significant like-for-like sales declines in the
period," GUS said.
Homebase's gross margin was also down year-on-year, reflecting an adverse
mix and more price reductions, especially in the latter part of the period.
GUS warned that the impact of these reductions, which did not generate the
required volume uplifts, coupled with higher costs, will result in EBIT
(earnings before interest and tax) at Homebase for the year just ended of around
50 mln stg -- lower than analysts had expected.
Looking forward, GUS expects the DIY market to remain weak for much of 2006,
but also expects Homebase to continue to take share driven by initiatives in
customer service and new space.
For the six months to March 31, Argos, which sells everything from
electrical appliances to garden furniture and trades from over 657 stores, saw
flat like-for-like sales -- compared to analyst expectations of flat sales and
after flat sales in the third quarter.
GUS said Argos again outperformed its market, with total sales up 9 pct.
Gross margin was in line with last year.
Over the second half Experian beat analysts' expectations with a 30 pct
increase in total sales at actual exchange rates and a 25 pct rise at constant
exchange rates.
Experian North America saw sales increase 35 pct at constant exchange rates,
while Experian International was up 13 pct.
Last month GUS detailed plans to demerge Argos Retail Group (Argos and
Homebase) and Experian, with both divisions becoming independently listed on the
London Stock Exchange in six to 12 months time.
Last December the group demerged its remaining 65 pct stake in luxury brand
Burberry Group PLC. In January it sold its last remaining home shopping
business, Dutch group Wehkamp, for 320 mln eur.
GUS shares closed Tuesday at 1045 pence, valuing the business at 9.37 bln
stg.

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jdd/bam

[broshm] 06/4/2006 19:41

brom
what is this split all about ?
How much is this business worth ?
strikes me there are too many products on sale but there are an awfullot
of people around who will buy anything they feel to be a bargain .
Wot news
Brom

[pitoe] 31/3/2006 16:43

Fantastic info here:

[iulia] 31/3/2006 16:43

rise of 300p from the end of October on M&A expectations, recent statement about demerger put the dampers on this, I expect the price to go back towards 800p in the next few weeks, the fall may be sharper than the rise, a clear short in my book

[spreadrisk] 09/3/2006 00:34

The Experian Conference 2005

[spreadrisk] 09/3/2006 00:27

Complaints over data privacy soar


....
The majority of complaints received by the commission over the past year dealt with accuracy of credit and financial information collected by companies such as Equifax and Experian. The police national computer system also came in for harsh criticism due to inaccurate data.

....

[spreadrisk] 09/3/2006 00:24

Complaint in USA


Outcome
Nation's Big Three Consumer Reporting Agencies Agree To Pay $2.5 Million To Settle FTC Charges of Violating Fair Credit Reporting Act

[spreadrisk] 09/3/2006 00:02

From https://www.creditexpert.co.uk/UK/CheckBackSoon.aspx

Temporarily unavailable

Please come back soon!
Sorry, CreditExpert is temporarily unavailable.
We apologies for any inconvenience. Service will be restored as soon as possible.

Please come back soon!

Important Security Notice:
------------------------------------

These guys are a waste of time!!

[spreadrisk] 08/3/2006 23:58

From https://www.creditexpert.co.uk/UK/MCCLanding.aspx
Get your Free 30-day trial* of the CreditExpert Monitoring Service
along with your FREE online Experian credit report
....
*CreditExpert membership offers a 30-day free trial including unlimited access to your Experian Credit Report. From the end of your 30 day trial period, Membership is billed to your credit card at 0 per year. You will receive a pro rated refund if you cancel within 90 days of being billed. CreditExpert accepts Visa or Mastercard payment. National Credit Score is available exclusively to CreditExpert members for £4.99
-----------------------------------------------

What! "0 per year"

[waldron] 08/3/2006 07:48

Travis Perkins FY pretax flat; expectations for 2006 unchanged

LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC, the building materials firm that acquired
DIY retailer Wickes in late 2004 and issued a profit warning last November, has
reported an expected flat pretax profit for 2005, with its performance dragged
down by a DIY price war and the decline in UK consumer confidence.
The group said it is too early to change its expectations for 2006 as a
whole, but noted it has made a "satisfactory" start with merchanting volumes
ahead of expectations.
"Although there are signs that our markets are likely to recover, we expect
the first half year to remain challenging, with any recovery coming in the
second half year," it said.
For the year to Dec 31, Travis made a pretax profit under new IFRS
accounting rules of 206.7 mln stg -- in line with the guidance in November's
profit alert and compared to a restated 206.5 mln stg in 2004. Prior to the
warning analysts were forecasting some 20 mln stg more.
Travis blamed price-led promotional activity by competitors, such as
Kingfisher PLC's B&Q, GUS PLC's Homebase and MFI Furniture Group PLC as well as
the general deterioration in UK consumer confidence for the profit shortfall.
Turnover increased 44.4 pct to 2.64 bln stg, reflecting the contribution of
Wickes, acquired for 950 mln stg in December 2004.
Travis is paying a total dividend of 34.0 pence, an increase of 11.5 pct,
payable from basic earnings per share of 116.8 pence, a fall of 6.1 pct.
Shares in Travis closed Tuesday at 14.98 stg, valuing the business at 1.82
bln stg.
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jdd/tc