Gusbourne Share Discussion Threads

[nirag patel] 18/6/2004 09:08

up strongly today cause tipped by UBS, target 975p,

[pineapple1] 18/6/2004 09:04

hhmmm,think will leave the short side for a while.

[pineapple1] 17/6/2004 17:11

Closed at £8.40(only about 8pts but better than nothing) the other day and glad that i did.Would love to feel comfortable with the long side on this but just can't bring myself 2 do it .Looking 2 open new short 2morow if this opens up high towards £8.60 area.Its looking strong again i just wonder how far the market wants to take this.Surely not another NXT

Got to be money in the bank from that area,but the market takes from the reckless,over confident and unwary,Caution is the name of the game.

[kaffee] 12/6/2004 08:17

Very true... but keep your wits about next week... could be on the turn now.

[pineapple1] 10/6/2004 09:13

Kaffee...thats what he tells me,but looking vey strong today.Turning into another gravity defying stock.Certainly flavour of the last month

[kaffee] 10/6/2004 07:31

Does your chartist friend say £8 is the new support ??

[pineapple1] 09/6/2004 22:04

Short today from £8.48,on the advice of a chartist friend who has been remarkably accuurate with many of his calls.

Retrace back down to at least £8 so i'm told.So far so good.

[onlyme] 09/6/2004 21:26

GUS:

Time to go Bearish on this one???

[kaffee] 09/6/2004 20:27

Is this it ?? Hmm.. not sure, needs a close below 830.

[kaffee] 03/6/2004 14:43

In play in what regard ?


RSI is showing well overbought but you've got the breakout crews jumping in now...

MA deviation is the largest I've seen for a while but it doesn't show any signs of turning just yet... a few days around 830 - 840 and take another look.

[sandbank] 03/6/2004 11:38

What do we think team - could GUS be in play?

[kaffee] 02/6/2004 17:25

Well it can't have been a SELL !!

[a4] 01/6/2004 18:05

Anyone explain the after hour sale at the auction of 30000000 GUS shares ?.

[grupo guitarlumber] 27/5/2004 11:34

LONDON (AFX) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it has revised its
outlook on UK-based diversified retail and information processing group, GUS PLC
to stable from positive, after the group said it will strategically review its
current business portfolio within the next two years.
The rating agency however affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term
corporate credit ratings.
"The outlook revision primarily reflects the uncertainty about whether the
group will retain its existing business diversity, which is a key positive
rating factor," S&P's credit analyst Omar Saeed said.
As a result, it believes the probability of an upgrade is now much lower.
[e-mail]
ra

[grupo guitarlumber] 26/5/2004 14:00

LONDON (AFX) - Moody's Investors Service said it has affirmed GUS PLC's
long-term senior unsecured rating at Baa1, and issuer rating at Prime-2,
following the company's recent announcement that it intends to return up to 200
mln stg to shareholders by means of a share buyback.
The outlook is stable, Moody's added.
cml/cmr

[maywillow] 25/5/2004 15:09

Argos blames pressures on consumers for slow growth
By Susanna Voyle, Retail Correspondent
Published: May 25 2004 8:06 | Last Updated: May 25 2004 8:06

GUS yesterday warned that Britain's consumers were flagging as it reported slowing underlying sales growth at its Argos high street chain and said this year could see worse to come for the retail sector as a whole.

The 3 per cent underlying sales growth at Argos was below City expectations of between 4 per cent and 5 per cent, and shares in GUS fell more than 5 per cent to close at 890p, the steepest drop among FTSE100 stocks.

The news came amid a raft of Christmas trading updates yesterday from high street retailers. The biggest names, including Argos, confirmed the sales trends already reported, with demand strongest for camera phones and entertainment products such as movies on DVD.

Carphone Warehouse reported its strongest festive season, with retail revenues up 32.8 per cent over the Christmas period, while HMV and Woolworths both highlighted strong sales of movies and music.

David Tyler, GUS finance director, said Argos enjoyed strong sales of phones and could have sold 30 per cent more if supply had been stronger. It also saw a sharp increase in demand for DVD players and big television sets.

However, he admitted that growth in the chain - a high street darling of the past few Christmas seasons - was slowing. He blamed this on the consumer, saying that Argos had not lost market share in any area of its business.

Total sales at Argos in the 14 weeks to January 3 rose 10 per cent, but like-for-like sales - the underlying measure, which strips out new stores - rose by 3 per cent, compared with 7 per cent in the first half.

"We have been predicting for some time that consumer spending would slow and the growth has slowed by 2 percentage points," Mr Tyler said.

"Now we have got to assume that is going to continue. We do see pressure building on consumers' wallets. This will not be a bumper year for retailers."

Mr Tyler said all parts of the GUS empire had performed to plan.

Homebase, the DIY chain, enjoyed 7 per cent total sales growth, with 6 per cent growth in like-for-like sales.

Experian, the financial information business, saw an 8 per cent increase in sales, equivalent to 12 per cent at constant currencies.

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/5/2004 12:11

LONDON (AFX) - GUS PLC told investors it may take up to two years before
management decides whether to demerge its Experian credit checking arm.
Chief executive John Peace announced a strategic review of the entire GUS
portfolio alongside annual results.
But he said he wouldn't be making a swift and potentially rash decision on
the future of the retail combine, which spans catalogues, Argos and Homebase and
still holds a 66 pct stake in Burberry.
"It will be an objective review which looks at literally all options," the
GUS CEO said.
"That could include keeping the group together, through to some logical
separation which could involve Experian, or indeed Argos Retail Group."
Those comments are bound to exasperate analysts and investors who say
ownership of Experian reinforces GUS' conglomerate status and believe it drags
the group's stock market rating down.
Eventually they reckon GUS will split into three distinct, separately quoted
businesses -- information, retail and luxury goods.
"We remain convinced that the aggregate group value still does not match the
worth of the individual constituent parts of the group," said Citigorup Smith
Barney's Charles Nichols.
"While this may reflect a conglomerate discount there are clear pointers to
suggest that GUS ultimately intends to split the group into its three main
divisions.
"Such a course of action -- we would stress that this is not official
company policy -- would challenge the logic for a discount."
The strategic review accompanied full-year results which were at the upper
end of analysts forecasts, as Argos outperformed the wider retail sector and
Homebase delivered on targets set out at the time of acquisition in Dec 2002.
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill amortisation was 827 mln stg,
up 29 pct. Turnover was 7.55 bln.
In a conference call with journalists, Peace said Homebase, the DIY chain it
bought from venture capitalists, was now covering its cost of capital.
And he hinted the operation may generate annual savings and synergies above
the previously targeted 20 mln stg. Better purchasing and supply chain
management have contributed to those economies.
"What we are going to say to investors today is we are on track to at least
deliver that level of saving (20 mln stg)," Peace said.
"We are not going to give any more precise figures other than to confirm we
are making good progress with that initiative."
At 11.48 am, shares in the company were 3-1/2 pence lower at 791-1/2.
Numis retail analyst Iain MacDonald said his 2005 pretax profit forecast of
868 mln stg was starting to look "conservative" in the wake of today's results.
ijl/jc

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/5/2004 07:41

LONDON (AFX) - GUS PLC went some way to appeasing analysts and investors
concerned about its conglomerate status as it said it would "actively review"
its options over the next two years.
But it stopped short of announcing the demerger of its Experian credit
checking business critics had called for.
The news was contained in the company's full-year results statement, which
revealed pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill amortisation was some 29
pct higher than a year ago at 827 mln stg.
This was at the upper end of City forecasts which ranged 815-830 mln stg.
Separately, GUS announced plans for a 200 mln stg share buyback and said the
IPO of its South African retail business would take place by the end of 2004,
subject to market conditions.
The company is paying a total dividend of 27 pence a share, up from 23.3
pence a year earlier.
ijl

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/5/2004 07:38

LONDON (AFX) - GUS PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 7.55 bln stg vs 7.11 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 827 mln stg vs 642 mln
Pretax profit - 692 mln stg vs 409 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 60.7 pence vs 47.8
EPS - 47.4 pence vs 25.1
Final div - 19.0 pence vs 16.4
Total div - 27.0 pence vs 23.3

vjt/

[ariane] 23/5/2004 19:54

Demerger Speculation at Gus

By Graeme Evans, City Editor, PA News


The owner of Argos and Homebase could demerge credit checking business Experian in an overhaul later this year, it was claimed today.

The speculation over the shape of retail conglomerate GUS comes as the blue-chip company prepares to unveil another sharp rise in annual profits. It may also announce plans to return £400 million to shareholders on Tuesday.

However, the Sunday Telegraph added that a demerger of Experian was being considered, possibly for the end of the year.

The company, which also has a stake in Burberry, is thought to be waiting for evidence that the retail business, including recently-acquired DIY chain Homebase, is strong enough to operate as a stand-alone venture.

It may also want to prove that Experian has traded out of a slowdown in one of its US mortgage-related subsidiaries.

Today’s report quoted an unnamed banker as saying that GUS was “getting things in motion” for a separation. The business, which could be valued at £4 billion, may be hived off completely or part-floated on the stock market.

No-one from GUS was available to comment on the report today.

Experian, which has its headquarters in Nottingham and California, employs 13,000 people and sells credit information in more than 50 countries. The business generates 18% of GUS sales and 33% of profits but analysts believe its performance is not fully reflected in the company’s share price.

Fund manager Gerrard expects GUS to report annual profits of £809 million on Tuesday, up from a figure of £571 million seen a year earlier.






TODAY(23rd May 2004)

Current Share Price 787p approx.
Turnover per share 704p
Cash per share 35p
NAV 260p
Negative Net cash 231p
Negative NTAV 7p

Tomorrow

[pineapple1] 20/5/2004 07:59

Closed my short here about a week ago for a fair gain,but shall revist as it tests £8 which it has failed to break on a couple of occasions.

[pineapple1] 08/5/2004 12:25

Alphorn...yes i have a position short in Gus from 7.86 and doubled it at 7.96
after seeing the formation of a double top.Agree with your views re retailers.
Short BRBY (absurdly expensive) and CPR.Closed NXT short far to early.Feel that most retailers have come far enough and must be due a correction soon.
Cannot see that we are at any other point than the peak for retailers.in the UK.

[alastairmurray] 08/5/2004 09:04

There is life out there. I have to confess to being very conservative to being in debt, which is why I have a problem with an industry that relies on people borrowing money to keep the party going. I personally think that it will all unwind, just wish I had my crystal ball to predict exactly when.

[alphorn] 07/5/2004 17:50

Very quiet thread here - currently short on the basis negative UK retailers (rather than company specific) in view of rising interest rates and (expected) flattening house prices.
Anybody else have positions in GUS?

[alastairmurray] 05/3/2004 14:47

A018009
Judging by the latest job report,the U.S doesn't seem to be able to justify the recent rally. Any thoughts on how long the effects would take to filter through to the U.K retail sector if the U.S continues to stall. Who would you suggest are the most vunrable companies to a slight downturn?

Any thought's