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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf Marine Services Plc | GMS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | 0.65% | 15.40 | 16:29:57 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.40 | 15.00 | 15.50 | 15.40 | 15.30 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| AEROSPACE & DEFENCE |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 13/12/2024 17:10 by hpcg You are, for the most part, conversing with people here 2 years before Paul Scott mentioned it. The figures released by the company tell their own story. I am very surprised at the share price today, but I don't control any others in the market. I've been buying more on occasion in this period, though without increasing the proportion of my portfolio allocation. The influence of commentators here and elsewhere in the PI sphere is significantly overstated and diminishing all the time as the active investor base shrinks. Not only that but PS writes on Stockopedia, a product founded on the basis of factor investing. People that work off of tips have at best 5 figure portfolios and are utterly insignificant outside of micro cap stocks.Specifically on the subject of factors, even the interims are well out of date, with net debt having decreased from $238.5mn end H1 to $221mn end Q3 with similar to come this Q. Come the FY report those numbers will be clean(er) with just the distortion from the fair value adjustment of warrants, assuming no more are converted this year distracting from the trading numbers. Probably, as that depends on where the share price ends up on the last trading day of the year. Fed is likely to cut next week, but perhaps not at all in 2025. That's a modest cut to the interest bill in addtion to the lower interest rates on refinancing. Dollar is strong and as I have a sterling basis that adds to the attraction. |
Posted at 27/11/2024 11:36 by hpcg I don't think anyone apart from those eager to sell really knows. IMO this should be closer to 28p based on fundamentals. I would say the absorption of the Seafox distribution has exhausted buyers for now. I imagine back ground short selling of shares by warrant holders continues they I don't have any direct evidence for that, but I would be doing that in their situation. Related to that some potential investors may be holding off for what they anticipate could be more availability from warrants.In terms of oil, the cycle has really gone out of the business. The US onshore dynamic means that there has been no splurge on expensive long lead offshore fields so supply and demand are relatively well balanced. I do expect KSA to regain some market share which will cap prices, but not destabilise them. |
Posted at 13/11/2024 10:40 by hpcg Yes, there is all the normal stuff.Investors most want to see the warrants out of the way I think. When I read back through the public documentation on those they are compensated pro-rata for either a dividend or a buy back, so if I have expressed in the past preference for a dividend ahead of buy backs that was nonsense. So investors will be happy to hear about the returns policy if that makes an appearance this side of the FY results. |
Posted at 21/10/2024 14:09 by hpcg Late to the party is an interesting concept. I was "late to the party" in Funding Circle earlier this year at circa 80p. It could have been bought at 28p just a few months before, or more realistically at 45p after they had announced their first share repurchase programme. Since then it is up circa 75%. I used to be really put of buying shares that had made big gains, or those breaking new highs, but that is utterly ridiculous as those are two traits of successful companies. Late can be much safer, which is a reason some investors are deliberately late. The reason the shares might be at, let's say 35p in 12 months time, is that buyers can still see a runway to go returns. |
Posted at 21/10/2024 07:47 by hpcg Tourist2020 - I think Dowgate did sell in the spring, well at least presumably some at that peak. They can't have shifted them all at that price, but perhaps they were selling above 22p or something, and just carried on until they were out? I think a couple of posters here also sold.I chose not to sell because by that time GMS had moved into a different part of my portfolio allocation. As fair value is increasing all the time because of the ongoing debt repayments it has gone from bare knuckle ride to predictable growth. To echo seroserio fair value will be about 38-40p in 14 months time. In the spring that forward value was the same but the time to get there was instead 20 months and the percentage gain somewhat less than a doubling. Nevertheless a 66% gain over 20 months was easily sufficient to justify hanging around for. Arguably forward fair value may be higher than I suggest as rates are better, the forward bookings are longer and stronger, interest rates are lower, refinance is sooner. Then come mid next year and tangible shareholder returns start and whole new set of investors will get engaged. And the Seafox large holding has now been sold or dispersed, leaving just one outsize holder. |
Posted at 10/10/2024 12:15 by hpcg The market has to first buy out the overhang. As investors we can't do anything about forced sellers, those that need cash now and those that simply want to exit the position whatever the price for their own reasons. We can do what investors are supposed to do which is to pick up cheap growing companies at less than fair value and wait. Fortunately the London market has finally discovered buy-backs, not just companies but institutions expressing that preference to companies. Companies are bringing down share counts, enhancing NAV and not wasting capital on diminishing returns from excess capital investment. We do not have to wait long for the company to be in the position to self-help. Buybacks during the summer doldrums would likely be both price supportive and have a decent IRR, depending on P/NAV at the time. |
Posted at 01/10/2024 13:01 by ggrantsu whites...always nice to read a comment where an obviously calm investor lays out the simplicity to a thesis. at the end of the day, this is a company where the fundamentals are booming. investors are being given an extraordinary chance to top up at c.14p and a 50% discount to NAV (with leverage reducing quickly, that is a very conservative way to look at the discount!). horrible to wake up and see yourself losing thousands. but this should be a situation where those with patience and nerves are rewarded handsomely. |
Posted at 01/10/2024 11:40 by whites123 Im a buyer and supporter of GMS Gulf Marine Services for several reasons, especially considering recent selling activity by Seafox, via distribution, which presents a strategic opportunity for investors.The offshore support vessel sector, providing critical services to the oil and gas, and renewable energy industries, is experiencing renewed growth due to rising energy demand and global energy transitions. The ongoing selling by Seafox (By Distribution) a key shareholder, could be seen as a short-term negative. However, this presents a valuable opportunity for the market as shares transition from investors with little confidence (or strategic interest) in holding, to those who are bullish on GMS’s long-term potential. This transfer of shares is going to lead to a more committed shareholder base, driving stronger price support and stability. With a leaner cost structure and improving industry fundamentals, GMS is positioned for growth, and the shift of shares into stronger hands sets the stage for enhanced investor focus and performance gains. Never thought I would be presented with an opportunity to top up at these kind of levels. So happy to be adding. |
Posted at 12/9/2024 07:01 by hpcg I have been adding regularly in the last few months actually, some with a 15 handle but in the 18s in June. This is as income, and capital from takeovers roll in. I am pretty convinced the selling has nothing to do with the company or its performance.I did wonder if some people were looking at oil price direction, but that would be a pretty naive view of how the industry works. The gulf states, which still have the cheapest production, are just going to keep producing and will ignore the oil price because trying to manage the price doesn't work. All it does is provide finance for more expensive fields to come on line. US shale has to bring production on line constantly, for example, and that is funded by forward selling. Producers in general are always heavily net short, which is the purpose of the futures market after all. Part of the thesis is that demand for our services will be resilient even when oil demand starts to permanently decline. China is probably going into a lower energy intensive phase, but Indian usage is increasing. We provide the most cost effective services, with modern vessels, in the cheapest producing area. This latest contract, at higher rates, demonstrates that. I do wonder about the capital gains tax selling, but that must be an edge case. For example it only applies to UK private investors. I still think there will be short selling from outstanding warrants, and they know that their window of opportunity ends about 7 months earlier than they may have thought. There is also potentially short selling from some Seafox investors that do want some cash. That said I would have thought Seafox might be a source of borrow, but perhaps that is the other large holder. These things solves themselves over a relatively short window and if not the company can sensibly institute buy backs after the refi and once gearing goes below 2. |
Posted at 04/9/2024 07:56 by hpcg CousinIT - The investor in Seafox necessarily have a long time horizon because they are directly invested in a small private company. I think it is an excellent mechanism and very obviously one agreeable to those investors. It is considerably better than Seafox working them out in the market. Of course some will make use of public liquidity but that is literally how a market works. These new direct shareholders now have even more of an incentive to spread the word.Of course we can't divorce any share price action in the last month from the wider market and fears around the US economy. |
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