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GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd

113.30
1.30 (1.16%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.30 1.16% 113.30 113.40 114.00 114.50 110.00 114.00 1,197,179 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Oil And Gas Field Expl Svcs 460.11M 266.09M 1.1962 0.95 253.36M
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is listed in the Oil And Gas Field Expl Svcs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GKP. The last closing price for Gulf Keystone Petroleum was 112p. Over the last year, Gulf Keystone Petroleum shares have traded in a share price range of 81.70p to 181.00p.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum currently has 222,443,000 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum is £253.36 million. Gulf Keystone Petroleum has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 0.95.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

Showing 666726 to 666743 of 703350 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
20/1/2023
19:24
Thanks nufc for those that might have missed it..#GKP included in Peel Hunt’s ‘Top Growth Stocks 2023’ note last week. Their target price :340 which 75% the current levels#GKP 2023E OUTLOOK. Assuming timely approval of the Shaikan expansion projectFDP, investment in further drilling and production facilities should pave the wayfor another year of meaningful production and cash flow growth.#GKP Peel Hunt forecastslook for gross FY23E production capacity increasing to 55Mbbl/d. Assuming the capital programme continues as expected, this ought to generate operating cashflow of PHe US$400m.#GKP Offset by net capex of PHe US$180m and an assumedbase PHe US$75m dividend, the business should still generate postcapex/dividend FCF of US$144m, equivalent to a yield of 27%. In terms ofearnings, our forecasts also see the business trading on just c.1x EV/EBITDAX.
releasethekraken
20/1/2023
19:14
"I'm giving you a chance to realise you're making a huge error with gender."

So your gender is a huge error is it Sarah.

And you're giving me a chance. Well that's very generous of you.

Well I'm not sure what to say about all that but it certainly doesn't sound like a very good reason for me to travel all the way to London and for you to pay thousands of pounds to meet me, unless of course you've decided that you want to try and convince me that you're not a total idiot after all which sounds like a pretty tall order.

So rather than spend all that money to do that why don't you just start posting sensible factual substantiated posts that intelligent people can relate to.

And then we'll see.

habshan
20/1/2023
19:04
“habscum, I'm giving you a chance to realise you're making a huge error with gender.”

So you want some stranger to meet you in London to prove to them your a male and not a female. Sounds a bit weird fella/lady

nufc9
20/1/2023
19:00
The past is another country. They do things differently there.

There`s a new ball game starting and we must be patient and await the outcomes

The company is fine and it is the new external operating, political,and financial environment we await.

arcadian
20/1/2023
18:52
habscum, I'm giving you a chance to realise you're making a huge error with gender.

Or is it you're just chicken to confront me?

Have a word with GRH as he's met me.

bigdog5
20/1/2023
18:47
HTTPS://twitter.com/111notout1/status/1616425475001262080?s=61&t=EQj6n_slO3-8vx-AJNkw1Q
releasethekraken
20/1/2023
18:47
Thanks nufc for those that might have missed it..#GKP included in Peel Hunt’s ‘Top Growth Stocks 2023’ note last week. Their target price :340 which 75% the current levels#GKP 2023E OUTLOOK. Assuming timely approval of the Shaikan expansion projectFDP, investment in further drilling and production facilities should pave the wayfor another year of meaningful production and cash flow growth.#GKP Peel Hunt forecastslook for gross FY23E production capacity increasing to 55Mbbl/d. Assuming the capital programme continues as expected, this ought to generate operating cashflow of PHe US$400m.#GKP Offset by net capex of PHe US$180m and an assumedbase PHe US$75m dividend, the business should still generate postcapex/dividend FCF of US$144m, equivalent to a yield of 27%. In terms ofearnings, our forecasts also see the business trading on just c.1x EV/EBITDAX.
releasethekraken
20/1/2023
18:46
Wilkie filtered
releasethekraken
20/1/2023
18:42
Wilkie_HK was always obsessed with the PSC , I saved this post .

wilkie_hk - 3 Apr'12 - 13:45 - 185372 of 185399

On the off chance that there is anyone presently lurking that has a full understanding of the payment mechanism set out in the PSC, I am seeking some re-assurance that I have correctly applied the payment mechanisms as referred to in articles 25 (Recovery of Petroleum Costs) and article 26 (Sharing of Profit Petroleum), which are linked to at

hxxp://www.krg.org/pages/page.asp?lngnr=12&rnr=296&PageNr=1

To quote from the relevant clauses (perceived non relevant words removed):

Clause 25.3
'Subject to the provisions of this contract, from first production in the contract area, the CONTRACTOR shall at all times be entitled to receive all petroleum costs incurred under the contract up to 40% of available crude oil, produced and saved within any calendar year. Available crude oil above this percentage or otherwise not used for the recovery of petroleum costs shall be profit crude oil.'

Clause 26.1 (b)
'Profit crude oil means the quantities of available crude oil produced from the contract area, after recovery of petroleum costs.'

Clause 26.2
'From first production and as and when petroleum is being produced, the CONTRACTOR shal be entitled to take a percentage share of profit crude oil in consideration of its investment in the petroleum operations.'

Clause 26.4
The R factor shall be calculated as follows:
R=X/Y
X = cumulative revenues actually received by the CONTRACTOR
Y = cumulative costs incurred by the CONTRACTOR
From the date of signiture of this contract

For X/Y2, R = 0.15
Also formaula for values in between, but not copied.

I'm sure anyone responding to this wil be familiar with the payment flow chart, which can be found in the January 2012 presentation (page 8) linked to below.



However, my worked example for payment is as follows (please attach no relevance to the values as they are purely to work the example):

Let's assume that in the first year of significant Shaikan production the following applies

Total revenue = £1Bn
Net revenue = £900Mn (10% royalty taken off)
Cost to date incurred by contractor = £1Bn
Cost recovery directly to contractor = 40% of £900Mn = £360Mn
Carry £540Mn (60%) to profit oil
X/Y = 1, therefore R = 0.3
Portion to contractor = 0.3 x 540 x 0.6 (40% infrastructure fund tax) = £97.2Mn
Total received by contractor = £457Mn (with 54.4% WI = £249Mn to GKP)
Year 2
Additional £1.5Bn revenue and £250Mn costs
Net revenue = £1.35Bn
Cumulative cost incurred by contractor = £1.25Bn
Cumulative revenues received by contractor = £457Mn
Cost recovery direct to contractor = 40% of £1.35Bn = £540Mn
Carry £810Mn profit oil
X/Y = 457/1250,
Portion to contractor = 0.3 x 810 x 0.6 = £146Mn
Total received by contractor = £686Mn

Year 3
Additional £2Bn revenue and £250Mn costs
Net revenue = £1.8Bn
Cumulative cost incurred by contractor = £1.5Bn
Cumulative revenues received by contractor = £1143Mn
Cost recovery direct to contractor = 40% of £1.8Bn = £720Mn
Carry £1080Mn profit oil
X/Y = 1143/1500,
Portion to contractor = 0.3 x 1080 x 0.6 = £194Mn
Total received by contractor = £914Mn

Year 4
Additional £2.5Bn revenue and £250Mn costs
Net revenue = £2.25Bn
Cumulative cost incurred by contractor = £1.75Bn
Cumulative revenues received by contractor = £2057Mn
Cost recovery direct to contractor = 40% of £2.25Bn = £900Mn
Carry £1350Mn profit oil
X/Y = 2057/1750 = 1.17 R = 0.275,
Portion to contractor = 0.275 x 1350 x 0.6 = £223Mn
Total received by contractor = £1123

Year 5
Additional £3.0Bn revenue and £250Mn costs
Net revenue = £2.7Bn
Cumulative cost incurred by contractor = £2.0Bn
Cumulative revenues received by contractor = £3.18Mn
Cost recovery direct to contractor = £250Mn
Carry £2450Mn profit oil
X/Y = 3180/2000 = 1.59, R = 0.21
Portion to contractor = 0.21 x 2450 x 0.6 = £309Mn
Total received by contractor = £559Mn

Year 6
Additional £3.5Bn revenue and £250Mn costs
Net revenue = £3.15Bn
Cumulative cost incurred by contractor = £2.25Bn
Cumulative revenues received by contractor = £3.739Mn
Cost recovery direct to contractor = £250Mn
Carry £2900Mn profit oil
X/Y = 3739/2250 = 1.66, R = 0.20
Portion to contractor = 0.20 x 2900 x 0.6 = £350Mn
Total received by contractor = £600Mn

Success! My interpretation is that we can claim up to 40% of the revenue after the 10% royalty is deducted to claim back our historic spend. Thereafter, ie after a few years when we have re-couped the CAPEX, we basically get all our annual spend back, so long as they are less than 40% of the net revenue. The R factor then takes account of the capital that has been risked in giving us a greater proportion of reveniue in early years. Of course, this evetually becomes 15% (4.4% to GKP). So, I think my adoption of the cumulative costs and revenue is correct, but I may be wrong. To be honest, in spending some time on this today, the PSC is not quite so onerous in the early years as I had thought.

Nils, yes it did used to be Hong Kong, but now settled in sunny Bournemouth.

nestoframpers
20/1/2023
18:40
wilkie_hk - "I won't be posting much on here or undertaking the degree of research I did in the past as I will not be investing heavily and I may even just sell out on a rise and possibly use it as a trading stock." "I presume that you at least will have a copy of the PSC. Could you possibly post a link to it."

So you won't be doing much research as you won't be buying many and you'll just sell out on a rise and possibly just trade it.

But you need the PSC and want somebody else to dig it out for you.

I see.

habshan
20/1/2023
18:39
Give us a job Habshan .
nestoframpers
20/1/2023
18:29
"Want to meet me in London habscum? Next week?"

They want you on their payroll Habsham. If Habsham suddenly turns negative we know why ;)

nufc9
20/1/2023
18:21
"Want to meet me in London habscum? Next week?"

You'd need to provide me with a very good reason to travel to London Sarah and I don't think you could do that.

You'd also need to pay for 1st class flights 5 star accomodation and my time costs £250 an hour.

habshan
20/1/2023
18:09
Want to meet me in London habscum?

Next week?

bigdog5
20/1/2023
17:53
wilkie_hk

What planet are you on, pillock 🤦‍a94;️

bumkin
20/1/2023
17:50
You missed the word Total at the front of your last post 😆🎯
steephill cove
20/1/2023
17:12
So it seems that Nadhim Zahawi was fined £1.3m by HMRC for tax avoidance. So why isn't he in jail and who was the idiot who hired him as GKP's Chief Strategy Officer? It's not a good look.
eddie47
20/1/2023
16:34
Thanks nufc for those that might have missed it..#GKP included in Peel Hunt’s ‘Top Growth Stocks 2023’ note last week. Their target price :340 which 75% the current levels#GKP 2023E OUTLOOK. Assuming timely approval of the Shaikan expansion projectFDP, investment in further drilling and production facilities should pave the wayfor another year of meaningful production and cash flow growth.#GKP Peel Hunt forecastslook for gross FY23E production capacity increasing to 55Mbbl/d. Assuming the capital programme continues as expected, this ought to generate operating cashflow of PHe US$400m.#GKP Offset by net capex of PHe US$180m and an assumedbase PHe US$75m dividend, the business should still generate postcapex/dividend FCF of US$144m, equivalent to a yield of 27%. In terms ofearnings, our forecasts also see the business trading on just c.1x EV/EBITDAX.
bang_gone
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