Maybe Trump will order the pipeline to open the companies to be paid (US. Ones in particular) and if Iraq causes trouble sanctions start on individuals etc. |
30m is 10.5p per shareThe share price has risen 50% since the buyback announced, and apparently they haven't bought any.....Although we don't know what their brokers might have been up to.Imagine the effect on the share price of them buying 125,000 a day would have, if they proceeded like last real buyback?Maybe after Thursday they will.... |
Seems like these meetings are between IOCs/ICG and then IOCs/KRG? If the previous reports are true and the sticking points are between the ICG/KRG, then I don't know what further discussions with IOCs are supposed to achieve. Window dressing, perhaps?I think sanctions will have to be implemented before we see any real compromise on the side of the ICG. |
Looking like we could see £2.00 this coming week then. Soon be last chance for tickets for train.
Kylie may get mentioned again before long.
Gla |
Or will they absorb the unused amount back into the new imminent dividend & announce it as a $30m dividend?
Bearing in mind they previously announced a $20m dividend & a $10m buyback last time on 8/10/2025 👍 |
The invisible buyback program is ends on Wednesday... Lololol.... Will they extend it lol.... Or come clean finally |
Big week ahead then!Results Thursday + meetings in Baghdad. |
 hxxps://baghdadtoday.news/269988-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A6%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%AC%D9%8A%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A.html
resume exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Economy |Today, 10:00 |
Baghdad Today - Erbil
Economic expert Hevidar Shaaban revealed, today, Sunday (March 16, 2025), that two meetings were held between the Federal Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Regional Government, with representatives of oil companies operating in Kurdistan .
Shaaban told Baghdad Today, "The first meeting will be held in Baghdad this week, and another meeting will be held next week in Erbil between the same parties to resolve the issue of resuming oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan."
He added, "The oil export problem is not related to the federal government or the regional government, but rather the oil companies are refusing to resume exports at this time until the regional government's debts are paid."
Among the most prominent issues facing the resumption of oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan are the method of calculating oil quantities, the method of payment, and the share of international companies extracting oil from the Kurdistan Region, in addition to the issues of salaries, fees, and customs duties. Delegations between the two sides are attempting to resolve these issues before the start of export operations .
Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani surprisingly announced last February the resumption of exports from Kurdistan, a move that could end a nearly two-year conflict that has disrupted supplies of more than 300,000 barrels per day entering global markets via Turkey. |
Buckle up, 'ere we go again.
@john78846295
Two more meetings are planned with IOCs to address outstanding issues and resume oil exports.
First meeting will be held in Baghdad this week with the second in Erbil the following week. |
Good spot M.Max.
As Habshan says, keep an eye on the draught. Can take +/- 100,000 tonnes / 700,000 barrels or so.
GLA TT |
Perhaps Erdogan has finally had enough of Iraqi inaction and prevarication ! |
Turkish vessel. The Turks have called in one of their own to get some news and applause.
Gla |
"T.KURUCESME Crude Oil Tanker at Botas 4.30an UK"
Yes, for the first time in two years we have a crude oil tanker berthed at the ITP jetty.
She's a Turkish registered ship with a current draught of 8.3 metres, if she loads (and why else would she be there) she should leave sometime this evening or overnight with an increased draught.
Fingers crossed. |
I dont think Trump will let them off with it either. The trouble is he is busy with Ukraine and Iran right now. So we may have to wait. |
T.KURUCESME Crude Oil Tanker at Botas 4.30an UK |
I don't think Trump has the patient to wait for 6 months until September. I am expecting the oil to start flowing soon or else ..... |
Hence that short . Unpredictable though so wait and see what sabre rattling Basra does as if the Kurds go solo they will demand it too. |
Yep looks like 6 month wait . |
The Kurds can afford to sit back and the IOCs can be unwavering in their demands because in only six months or 26 weeks Baghdad will no longer have the power to prevent the export of Kurdish oil.
In six months what the Iranians in the MoO and SOMO think will be irrelevant and if they want to use the pipeline and have a northern export route for BP's oil they're going to have to deal with Turkey and the Kurds on equal terms, and if they don't want to do that they'll be shut out. |
https://x.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1900971490843242754 The KRG has largely delegated negotiations with Baghdad to international oil companies, despite Baghdad lacking crucial information about the controversial contracts the KRG signed with these firms, according to the former Iraqi deputy oil minister.A significant point of contention involves outstanding payments. Oil companies are demanding compensation for oil delivered in late 2022 and early 2023, which the KRG received without providing payment. Now both Iraq and the KRG continue to deflect financial responsibility onto each other.Payment timing presents another obstacle in the negotiations. Oil companies are insisting on advance payment ($16 production cost) before resuming production and export preparations. Meanwhile, Iraq maintains its position on a post-production payment system that would require companies to submit monthly invoices and accept a 30-60 day payment window. The companies remain unwavering in their demand for upfront payment. |
Wouldn't surprise me if the oil just started with no fanfare . The only thing they are competent at is robbing thier own people Thst and super giant discovery parties . |
Very good analysis - and they reckoned 2 months to get squabbles settled.6 weeks now and with US pressure - i expect something this week.A deal on arrears IMO.If they get some or all of the arrears - a very large dividend this Thursday - if not 30m or so - about 10.5 p.The bizarre non buying buyback ..hmmm..well I think we may also get some M+A news. SecuritiesPareto Securities AS Equity ResearchE&P Kurdistan NEWSFLASH)3 FEB 2025Iraq's parliament clears the path for Kurdistan exportsThe Iragi parliament yesterday approved the amendments to the federal budget law, which included a framework to restart Kurdistan oil exports. The law suggests the pipeline for exports immediately, but our guesstimate is that it will take a couple of months to sort out the implementation of flow of funds between SOMO/Baghdad, KRG and the companies. In addition, a key part of the agreement is an appointment of an independent consultant (hopefully an international reserves auditor) to evaluate changes needed to the initial USD 16/bbl compensation to enable full payments on based PSC contractual terms. It is estimated that-70% of PSC entitiements can be covered by the USD 16 bhl, which should lift FCFs by 25-30% compared to current local sales. At Brent USD 70/bbl and PSC terms, FCF could increase by -2x with resumed esports and predictable payments from SOMO/Baghdad warrants a multiple expansion if realized. We think seeing is believing on the important milestones ahead, but the repricing potential is high as the sector trades at 2-3x FCF if this is achieved. We expect significant positive share price reactions for all Kurdistan E&Ps today.What has happened?The Iraqi parliament has approved amendments to the federal budget law, which included a framework to restart Kurdistan oil exports. This implies that Baghdad and the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government) has agreed on terms that are now also officially approved bythe Iraq parliament. This may mark a historical moment for the Kurdistan E&Ps after the shid-in of exports since March 2023 The major changes include Baghdad gaining control of the oil sales and becoming responsible for payments to the producers whileKurdistan government expenditures will be covered fully from budget transfers from federal trag in the historical dependence on KRG liquidity situation should be removed if further milestones are delivered as outlined/intended in the current agreementWhile negative for KRG's independent ambitions (as expected), this may represent a more sustainabile long-term solution for the Kurdistan E&PSAll international sales will be conducted by SOMO (frad's State Organization for Marketing of Of that is the world's second largest seller of crude only beaten by AramcoThis will improve realized prices as the politicaflegal risk of buying the Kurdistan blend will be removed plus marketing power of SOMO vs KRG) and transportation costs through Turkey will be reduced (likely out by more than 50%). In total, we estimate that this will add around USD 6-8/bbi to the realized price at current international oil prices (Le close to 10%Second, SOMO is rumored/expected to establish prepayments for the Kurdistan E&Ps. correct, this could be achieved through a number of mechanisms, eg. escrow account solution that can only be used for payments to the EAPs. The payments from the account to the EAP's will likely be managed by the OTG that is responsible for the PSCs (calculation of correct payments after tax etc.)Federal iraq will initially pay USD 16bbi for production to the region that should be sufficient to cover approximately 70% of PSC entitlement payments according to our approximate calculations. The payments to the oil companies wilt be based on a % of their PSC entitlement and not a fixed fee of USD 16 bel at all the fieldsPrior to exports resuming, Baghdad and the KRG will jointly appoint an independent consultant to assess the right sized payment to honorthe PSCs long-termImportantly, the opinion of the (hopefully) independent auditor will be implemented without the need for another poltical voteRecovery of arrears for past exports will not be a part of the cument agreementKurdistan companies are expected to be protected agamat potential OPEC production cuts (similarly to the enterruational companies on service contracts in the rest of Iraq)What's left before exports will rastart?The payment mechanisms and flow of funds between SOMO, the KRO and oil companies needs to be confirmedIndependent auditor needs to be appointed (key poest for the Kurdistan E&Ps to ensure that process towards full contractual payments move forward as promised)Upon these two milestones being achieved, exports can resume through Turkey (the country is expected to favor resumed flow of oil from the region as it will provide income through a fee per bbl and and their relationship with federal iraq)While yesterday's news are positive for the region and a large step towards resumed exports, the implementation of the agreement will obviously be key to assess how this actually plays out for the Kurdistan E&Ps As such, we think more milestones needs to be achieved before a full repricing of the sector is warrant. Stil, we expect significant shareprice appreciation today as the sector trades at roughly 2-3x the annual FCF potential at current oil pricesBUY DNO, ShaMaran, Gulf Keystone |
Wait, what?If only there were a way to have multiple transmission pipes for different products. ? |
Surely you mean Poundland |
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