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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.20 -0.21% 93.70 94.00 94.90 95.70 90.80 93.40 694,125 16:35:08
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 155.9 32.6 14.5 6.5 210

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
02/7/2018
08:53
Indeed it was “The Minotaur”. nestoframpers - 10 May 2013 - 20:56:45 - 277752 of 567663 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP The Minotaur has posted on iii 17:36 Re: The World's Worst Basher? - Shaikan ... The Minotaur 51 Dear Bonobo, You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day. My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us. However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl. But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price. GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world. Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value. This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good! Cheers, TM
oil_investor
02/7/2018
08:47
Think that was the Minotaur
therealminotaur
02/7/2018
08:42
💋💋💋 FOLLOW THE BIG BOYS 💵💵💵💵 8181;💵ԁ81;🇺🇸;🇺🇸🇺🇸27482;🇸482;🇸㇌2;🇸🇺🇸 HERES WHO OWNS GKP : the "punters favourite" 90% PLUS by the EURO/UK A D PRIMARILY US INVESTMENT BANKS AND THEIR CLIENTS MORGAN STANLEY CLIENT NOMINEES PLUS MORSTAN 35,889,965 15.64% GOLDMAN SACHS 29,577,909 12.89% BANK OF NEW York various nominees 20,876,843 9.10% CHASE NOMINEES - J P MORGAN 20,547,527 8.96% VIDACOS NOMINEES LTD 18,831,346 8.21% AURORA NOMINEES LTD 15,183,887 6.62% EURO CLEAR NOMINEES LTD 14,068,039 6.13% STATE STREET NOMINEES LTD 11,824,222 5.15% J P MORGAN SECURITIES LLC/PLC 7,379,293 3.22% NUTRACO NOMINEES LTD 5,709,404 2.49% INTERACTIVE INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEES LTD 5,514,583 2.40% BNY VARIOUS NOMINEES BANK OF NEW YORK 5,311,352 2.32% HARGREAVES LANSDOWN NOMINEES LTD 5,164,078 2.25% BARCLAYS DIRECT INVESTING. 3,279,623 1.43% HSDL NOMINEES LTD 2,589,670 1.13% NORTRUST NOMINEES LTD 2,347,939 1.02% LYNCHWOOD NOMINEES LTD 2,099,963 0.92% SECURITIES SERVICES SECURE NOMINEES LTD 1,916,705 0.84% PERSHING VARIOUS NOMINEES 1,902,000 0.83% DEUTSCHE BANK 1,419,993 0.62% WEALTH NOMINEES LTD 1,393,462 0.61% HSBC GLOBAL CUSTODY NOMINEE UK LTD 1,241,075 0.54% ROY NOMINEES LTD 1,089,000 0.47% ING BANK 1,084,816 0.47% HSBC CLIENT HOLDINGS UK LTD 977,087 0.43% LAW SHARE NOMINEES LTD 974,921 0.42% ROCK NOMINEES LTD 864,000 0.38% INTERACTIVE BROKERS LLC 736,968 0.32% KAS NOMINEES LTD 731,018 0.32% SHARE NOMINEES LTD 691,130 0.30% MERRIL LYNCH INTERNTIONAL 676,293 0.29% REDMAYNE NOMINEES 670,000 0.29% HANOVER NOMINEES LTD 641,125 0.28% ALLIANCE TRUST SAVINGS NOMINEES LIMITED 385,969 0.17% HARGREAVE HALE NOMINEES LTD 297,815 0.13% BBHISL NOMINEES LTD 296,155 0.13% JIM NOMINEES LTD 283,400 0.12% PUMA NOMINEES LTD 270,575 0.12% JAMES CAPEL NOMINEES LTD 264,168 0.12% HAREWOOD NOMINEES LTD 240,594 0.10% DB LONDON INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEE LTD 200,000 0.09% UBS PRIVATE BANKING NOMINEES 179,726 0.08% IDEALING NOMINEES LTD 178,950 0.08% ABN AMRO NOMINEES LIMITED 162,790 0.07% CREDIT SUISSE 144,046 0.06% APOLLO NOMINEES LTD 121,208 0.05% GOODBODY STOCKBROKERS 120,000 0.05% MR DENNIS JOHN HILLS 117,362 0.05% PLATFORM SECURITEES NOMINEES 112,400 0.05% WINTERFLOOD CLIENT NOMINEES 112,000 0.05% BEAUFORT NOMINEES LTD 86,885 0.04%
therealminotaur
02/7/2018
07:50
FOLLOW THE BIG BOYS 💵💵💵💵 8181;💵ԁ81;🇺🇸;🇺🇸🇺🇸27482;🇸482;🇸㇌2;🇸🇺🇸 HERES WHO OWNS GKP : the "punters favourite" 90% PLUS by the EURO/UK A D PRIMARILY US INVESTMENT BANKS AND THEIR CLIENTS MORGAN STANLEY CLIENT NOMINEES PLUS MORSTAN 35,889,965 15.64% GOLDMAN SACHS 29,577,909 12.89% BANK OF NEW York various nominees 20,876,843 9.10% CHASE NOMINEES - J P MORGAN 20,547,527 8.96% VIDACOS NOMINEES LTD 18,831,346 8.21% AURORA NOMINEES LTD 15,183,887 6.62% EURO CLEAR NOMINEES LTD 14,068,039 6.13% STATE STREET NOMINEES LTD 11,824,222 5.15% J P MORGAN SECURITIES LLC/PLC 7,379,293 3.22% NUTRACO NOMINEES LTD 5,709,404 2.49% INTERACTIVE INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEES LTD 5,514,583 2.40% BNY VARIOUS NOMINEES BANK OF NEW YORK 5,311,352 2.32% HARGREAVES LANSDOWN NOMINEES LTD 5,164,078 2.25% BARCLAYS DIRECT INVESTING. 3,279,623 1.43% HSDL NOMINEES LTD 2,589,670 1.13% NORTRUST NOMINEES LTD 2,347,939 1.02% LYNCHWOOD NOMINEES LTD 2,099,963 0.92% SECURITIES SERVICES SECURE NOMINEES LTD 1,916,705 0.84% PERSHING VARIOUS NOMINEES 1,902,000 0.83% DEUTSCHE BANK 1,419,993 0.62% WEALTH NOMINEES LTD 1,393,462 0.61% HSBC GLOBAL CUSTODY NOMINEE UK LTD 1,241,075 0.54% ROY NOMINEES LTD 1,089,000 0.47% ING BANK 1,084,816 0.47% HSBC CLIENT HOLDINGS UK LTD 977,087 0.43% LAW SHARE NOMINEES LTD 974,921 0.42% ROCK NOMINEES LTD 864,000 0.38% INTERACTIVE BROKERS LLC 736,968 0.32% KAS NOMINEES LTD 731,018 0.32% SHARE NOMINEES LTD 691,130 0.30% MERRIL LYNCH INTERNTIONAL 676,293 0.29% REDMAYNE NOMINEES 670,000 0.29% HANOVER NOMINEES LTD 641,125 0.28% ALLIANCE TRUST SAVINGS NOMINEES LIMITED 385,969 0.17% HARGREAVE HALE NOMINEES LTD 297,815 0.13% BBHISL NOMINEES LTD 296,155 0.13% JIM NOMINEES LTD 283,400 0.12% PUMA NOMINEES LTD 270,575 0.12% JAMES CAPEL NOMINEES LTD 264,168 0.12% HAREWOOD NOMINEES LTD 240,594 0.10% DB LONDON INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEE LTD 200,000 0.09% UBS PRIVATE BANKING NOMINEES 179,726 0.08% IDEALING NOMINEES LTD 178,950 0.08% ABN AMRO NOMINEES LIMITED 162,790 0.07% CREDIT SUISSE 144,046 0.06% APOLLO NOMINEES LTD 121,208 0.05% GOODBODY STOCKBROKERS 120,000 0.05% MR DENNIS JOHN HILLS 117,362 0.05% PLATFORM SECURITEES NOMINEES 112,400 0.05% WINTERFLOOD CLIENT NOMINEES 112,000 0.05% BEAUFORT NOMINEES LTD 86,885 0.04%
therealminotaur
02/7/2018
06:47
😍😍😍GOOD MORNING 😎😎😎 Reading the financials in the June sales presentation Anybody else run the numbers for EBITDA 2018?? (E) $160m analysts But if oil averages $75 for year plus production at higher end of guidance along with pipe tie up net backs go higher It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the cash cow to hit $200m And with increased production 2019 could easily push $300m How much are they then worth??? multiple billion dollars on modest fwd p/e and of course to then doubling production to 110k EBITDA Subject to POO 5/6/7/800 million on a 3-4 year view. Current market cap 3/4 of 1 billion… In my view that has to change sooner or later. Sooner IMO ! Fill yer 👢👢
therealminotaur
02/7/2018
06:40
Capex commitments to wipe out any profit for 5 years. IMO.
hearts5
02/7/2018
06:08
GOOD MORNING 😎😎😎 💋💋💋Reading the financials in the June sales presentation Anybody else run the numbers for EBITDA 2018?? (E) $160m analysts But if oil averages $75 for year plus production at higher end of guidance along with pipe tie up net backs go higher It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the cash cow to hit $200m And with increased production 2019 could easily push $300m How much are they then worth??? multiple billion dollars on modest fwd p/e and of course to then doubling production to 110k EBITDA Subject to POO 5/6/7/800 million on a 3-4 year view. Current market cap 3/4 of 1 billion… In my view that has to change sooner or later. Sooner IMO ! Fill yer 👢👢
therealminotaur
02/7/2018
00:22
Soiled Nappy The Stockport w@nker as you so very eloquently put it is at least an investor in this company, as is the other chappie W@nkerhouse. You on the other hand claim not to be an investor. So what is in it for you? Because you spend your waking hours bleating the same tag line like some demented child trying to gain the attention of teacher. Seems an extraordinary way to spend your summer. As TRM says, seek help. Fingers crossed we have seen the last of all your chums.
rodinswan2
01/7/2018
18:37
Where's the thick yank? Thick manc awol It's like a double bubble
therealminotaur
01/7/2018
18:31
oil analyst and oil company director, Scottish industry insider, successful Stockport businessman - its like Dragons Den on here.
hearts5
01/7/2018
18:28
Surrey Scot is not an insider - he is Highlander who left here because he kept calling it wrong; remember typo gate?Hes in H&S not an oil professional - unless of course he has ' updated ' his LinkedIn account lol.
hearts5
01/7/2018
18:05
💋💋💋Reading the financials in the June sales presentation Anybody else run the numbers for EBITDA 2018?? (E) $160m analysts But if oil averages $75 for year plus production at higher end of guidance along with pipe tie up net backs go higher It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the cash cow to hit $200m And with increased production 2019 could easily push $300m How much are they then worth??? multiple billion dollars on modest fwd p/e and of course to then doubling production to 110k EBITDA Subject to POO 5/6/7/800 million on a 3-4 year view. Current market cap 3/4 of 1 billion… In my view that has to change sooner or later. Sooner IMO !
therealminotaur
01/7/2018
14:49
Have GKP said when the 3rd CPR is coming ? after pumping 50 mill blls they must have a good idea that FP is not 0.8 % , I ( and others) have worked it out for them it's >2.5% to 4.5%<.
nestoframpers
01/7/2018
13:15
Reading the financials in the June sales presentation Anybody else run the numbers for EBITDA 2018?? (E) $160m analysts But if oil averages $75 for year plus production at higher end of guidance along with pipe tie up net backs go higher It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the cash cow to hit $200m And with increased production 2019 could easily push $300m How much are they then worth??? multiple billion dollars on modest fwd p/e and of course to then doubling production to 110k EBITDA Subject to POO 5/6/7/800 million on a 3-4 year view. Current market cap 3/4 of 1 billion… In my view that has to change sooner or later. Sooner IMO !
therealminotaur
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