Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[steephill cove] 09/7/2021 00:51

Ranking Investor Name %1 Lansdowne Partners 15.222 Hof Hoorneman 11.043 UBS Group AG 7.044 BlackRock Inc 5.055 Mr Gertjan Koomen 4.716 Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 4.237 Dimensional Fund Advisors 3.568 Interactive Investor Trading 3.449 Precision Capital 2.9310 Barclays Bank 2.62

[kurdman63] 09/7/2021 00:45

"Your views are filtered by LTH PIs of note & all we see is blank & if you think institutions read this thread & you can influence them, you are deluded"

I'm meeting one of top five shareholders next week.

I'll pass on your regards lol.

[steephill cove] 09/7/2021 00:37

Same old same old. Just before everyone goes to bed, it becomes tw@t attack on the GKP thread, leaving 4 or 5 deramping posts, in the hope that serious investors & institutions read this thread in the wee hours & are put off

They do not & they are not.

Your views are filtered by LTH PIs of note & all we see is blank & if you think institutions read this thread & you can influence them, you are deluded.

The fact is they continually GROW & INCREASE their HOLDings ;-)

[bigdog5] 08/7/2021 23:38

That's to be expected habSCUM for the simple reasons that you don't understand how the PSC works, that it's extremely penal and favours the hosts massively.

That and of course the fact that you're unable to challenge the post with your usual fantasy BS excuses.

The Insti's plus other major shareholders could well have been instrumental in the decision taken to have another buyback and double divis. Its obvious from the various actions they've taken that they're very unhappy with the lack of progress, whatever the excuses, over the past five years since the restructure. They've seen other Insti's dump their shares at prices similar to the current one years ago and I would expect they're very annoyed they didn't dump at £3 when they had the chance.

I doubt they will make the same mistake again and could well take a lot less next time notwithstanding any new hype and spin that gets announced.

[broadford bay] 08/7/2021 23:24

We don't know if or for how long the high POO will last.
And we also don't know if the company's leading lights even have the guts to stand up to the KRG for another 10-15 years should that cost recovery scenario be achieved in the timeframe I mentioned.

However it plays out, it needs some good minds being applied and some cojones too.

AS I said, time's a passin...

[nobull] 08/7/2021 22:06

An excellent post (#634957) Broadford Bay, although I don't like the implications of it.

Yes, it is sobering that for all the work we do and for all the risks we take, once we have depleted the cost recovery pool, or even when the R rate falls to its lowest, making the contribution from cost oil much less significant, we end up close to giving away around 85% of the oil value produced to the KRG.

Paul Carrol, and all your 150 incarnations: is the maths a bit 'pseudy' for you?

[kurdman63] 08/7/2021 21:59

Good Evening Jamie 😃

That would tie in with some of the current chatter I'm hearing, I don't think they will go past 55k without an attempt to push them out for peanuts.

[nestoframpers] 08/7/2021 21:56

55 k a day will be achieved early.End of October imo, Ultra Conservative this lot, managing expectations

[davr0s] 08/7/2021 20:41

Yeah it was utter nonsense - think I'll increase my short of the back of that. Can only assume this poster is paid to constantly ramp the price. Bearish on my book

[broadford bay] 08/7/2021 20:26

The confluence of perhaps/maybe or even shortly reaching the 55Mbopd target (say 1st April 2022?) and continuing high crude price make for an interesting scenario.

One solid 2022 year's average output of say 51.5Mbopd (6m x 48Mbopd,6m x 55Mbopd) at $75/bbl crude would generate enough CO barrels to reduce the outstanding capital spend to almost zero (you would never actually reach zero of course because there is always something being spent on the wells/facilities).
At that point, and without an immediate large capital spend, your revenues would then fall foul of the Profit Oil side of the calculation.
If you're a super optimist and use 55Mbopd for the whole of 2022 it makes the situation even more pressing.

For argument's sake, let's assume the capital spend was only $2M per month for a short while at least. The 40% CO allocation doesn't help you here and most of the barrels would be hit with the 15% Profit Oil figure, with the KRG taking 85%. That reduction in R-factor of course would start to kick in earlier, as the ratio of revenues received to outstanding Capex, changed and your 30% might slide rather quickly towards 15%.
And THAT might lead, for a while at least until you got your Capex spend back up again, to sickly monthly revenues of ca $7.5M - $7.7M.

In a nutshell, the possible fast return of the outstanding CAPEX thanks to continuing high crude prices would place the company in rather a dilemma - and at the same time give the KRG/MNR enormous leverage over the company's future spending plans and direction of travel. Where and how fast they might want you to go might not be where you might wish to go. Accumulation of a large cash pile, or being seen to be overly generous to stockholders, might be counterproductive, as would a declared intention to invest in areas outwith Iraq.

Assuming continuing crude strength (and invoices being paid), and assuming no further capital commitments than have currently been advised by the company, it could well be that a reduction in CO revenues might start to be noticeable by.....

Decisions, decisions. Time's a pressing...

[habshan] 08/7/2021 20:18

"Another round of wasted money on buybacks plus a double dividend,"

A question for you Bigdog.

Less than three weeks ago the BoD proposed resolutions at the AGM requesting that they be allowed to buy back 10% of the company's shares at their discretion and that they be allowed to pay two dividends

The Institutions and major shareholders and everyone else that voted cast their votes accordingly, with 100% cast in favour and not a single vote cast against any of those resolutions.

Clearly the people that matter don't think that buybacks and dividends are a waste of money Bigdog, but you do.

If you'd voted against then it would have shown up in the numbers.

So why didn't you give them your opinion and vote against Bigdog.

Your opinion would have barely registered and would have counted for nothing, but it doesn't count for anything here either.

[mrtoddkozel] 08/7/2021 17:52

Hold BUY as MANY MORE AS more as you can. Buy Back announced tomorrow? Can't be far away. Perella Weinberg BOSSING the end game..... COMPANY buying + PREDATORS , plus MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS With zilch free stock super low liquidity, and LTH and HNWI also reinvesting divs, too.A huge squeeze NORTH forcing PRICE up , ultimately FORCE a bid the BOD is, prepared to   ACCEPT , and RECOMMEND or....... if NOT it has to go HOSTILEWhich will be nice :)

[bigdog5] 08/7/2021 17:45

Another round of wasted money on buybacks plus a double dividend, are we seeing clues that the company are very concerned and are desperately trying everything to increase the SP? Could they be worried that they are extremely vunerable to another wipe out for a pittance?

[pensioner2] 08/7/2021 16:32

The good thing, NOR, is it makes it fairly safe to buy at these levels knowing the buyback will have to be above them (assuming, of course, that there is one).

[nestoframpers] 08/7/2021 16:29

Yes OAP so frustrating when no one is actually making any effort and it's just a hard drive whirling around .

[nestoframpers] 08/7/2021 16:28

Yes well you know the City like them ultra conservative, all above board apparently.

[pensioner2] 08/7/2021 16:27

Algos beavering away to keep the lid on. :-)

[ian_hannam] 08/7/2021 16:22

The CPR is a deceptionLol

[nestoframpers] 08/7/2021 16:19

Officer D is quite right but who was expecting CAPEX to get returned as quick as it will be with POO up so much a year ago things were so different, now things in our favor for a change . At 3 % FP ( bolted on IMO ) we are sat on a mega field that makes the CPR look like deception.

[sbb1x] 08/7/2021 16:03

@GenelEnergyplcPrinting money for fun at current price.EIA (wk ending 2 July)Crude: -6.866MCushing: -0.614MGasoline: -6.076MDistillates: 1.616M