Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[steephill cove] 12/5/2021 08:09

GKP monthly payment imminent. How much this time $30M+ ;-)

[nestoframpers] 11/5/2021 20:01

An excuse was found for the restructure the AB write down ,Wempens CC, ISIS , drop in POO and and CV19 were not required but came in handy . A tumultuous ride here for PIs, I hope AttyG is wrong , I suspect he is as GKP will not be allowed to become a MOC which it would in time having Shaikan.

[nestoframpers] 11/5/2021 19:30

Schlumberger services operate in KRI , best of the best .

[habshan] 11/5/2021 18:08

"Sad to say Habshan 630475, but much the same applies to doing business with the KRG."

Hi Atty.

There are many places in the world where oil companies have to put up with a lot worse than the Kurdish oilies do and I don't think that Exxon's problems at West Qurna and their reasons for wanting to leave are relevant to GKP and the other Kurdish IOCs.

Exxon are desperate to get out of West Qurna for several reasons.

a) - Their finances were crushed last year and they're more than $70 billion in debt so they've having to severely cut back on their development budget and rebuild their balance sheet meaning that West Qurna has to go, it needs a LOT of money, GKP are financially robust and aren't in that situation.

b) - To develop West Qurna a $12 billion seawater project needs to be built, and because of government procrastination and massive corruption at all levels that project has not gone anywhere in 10 years. GKP and the Kurdish IOCs don't have that kind of problem, they have a good relationship with the KRG and there is an atmosphere of co-operation and willingness to make things happen and get things done. It's not perfect by any means as the MNR are understaffed but it does work.

c) - Exxon have to work under a dreaded Technical Services Contract whereas the Kurdish IOCs work under the much more favourable and much preferred Production Sharing Contracts.

d) - There's no sign of the Barzani's going anywhere soon and as you say Kurdistan has a relatively stable government so GKP won't be worrying about anybody saying to them that they "won't stand by the decisions relating to the oil and gas industry made by their predecessors, which means that any agreement done now with GKP is meaningless" which is what was said to Exxon by many leading Iraqi politicians.

So what that amounts to is that "The central problem for ExxonMobil was always and remains - that the risk/reward elements of the contract are profoundly unbalanced."

And that's why it's cheap and according to Broadford "The only interested party seems to be the Iraq Government."

Who's going to pay anything like top dollar to get involved in that mess. Kurdistan is a bed of roses in comparison.

Kurdistan's oil industry is everything to them, without it they have no hope of financial or any other kind of independence, they will NEVER cede ANY kind of control to the Arabs in Baghdad. The Kurds have been through some very hard times over the last few years and they've survived because they're very resourceful people and because they have their own oil industry, they've demonstrated over the years and in the recent budget negotiations that they drive a hard bargain and that they will not yield an inch to Baghdad unless it's in their interests and Baghdad has come to accept that which is how the Kurds got their 12.5% of the budget in return for 250kbpd.

The relationship with Baghdad has vastly improved lately, the oil price has recovered and is set to go higher and we'll soon be producing 55kbpd, so plenty of reasons to be optimistic:-

Yesterday - "The Iraqi Prime Minister said during an interview broadcast that the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil today is in its golden age, and the region's dues will reach it soon."

So all looking good.

[eddie47] 11/5/2021 17:53

At a $100 oil and 100,000 bpd GKP makes $1bn/yr.

[attyg] 11/5/2021 15:45

Sad to say Habshan 630475, but much the same applies to doing business with the KRG.
The corruption, the disregard to paying IOC valid cost recoveries etc.
While we do have a reasonably stable local government we can also fall foul of any agreement reached with Baghdad being upset by a change in either government or personnel.

That is why I think any corporate transaction is in all likelihood to involve a re-negotiation of the licence.

Will there ever be political sense in Iraq, or sufficient to enable the people of Iraq to enjoy the spoils of their oil rather than the few corrupt at the top, maybe, but perhaps not in my lifetime!

So I hold for the dividends and the pressure that builds on both the KRG and Baghdad from the outside world which may result in some form of sense - rewards for oil coys and "others".

I think the dividends will keep coming - well our bondholders/shareholders will want that at a minimum.

By the way, our BS does contain property plant & equipment at a written down value of $374m - so not sure the KRG "own" all of the assets required to make shaikan produce.

While I enjoy your excellent ripostes to the paid de-rampers, Habshan, I fear you may be giving them too much oxygen. How many CEOs have we now had? 5? All have spoken eloquently on the merits of shaikan, the bondholders are still here, like the rest of us wanting to get a fair value - I am happy to follow their views on intrinsic value.

[kurdman63] 11/5/2021 15:23

Bravedog David 🤡

Just because someone sent you an email doesn't mean that you are them 🤡

Please feel free to publish anything you want lol.

Funny how you couldn't contact me from the same email address and think everyone is as gullible as you 😂🤡

Go for it fool 😂