Green & Smart Share Discussion Threads

[charterhouse3] 22/2/2007 12:18

Great find with the Hoodless Brennan link.

Cannot help thinking that the forecast is still conservative. Probably better that it is still that way !!!

Nice to see Winterflood coming to their senses with the offer price this morning too.

CH3

[simon gordon] 21/2/2007 17:31

After reading the HB piece it seems that the BBC contract will have no bearing on T/O for 07/07, with a projection of 150m. HB expect margins to stay at 5%. I am hoping they can move them up to nearer 6%, thus achieving EPS of c.30. Rating 15x.

Possible forecast for 07/08:

T/O - 165m
Margin - 6%
PBT - 9.9m
EPS - 34.6
P/E @ £4.55 = 13.1

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I think the key indicator for margin potential is that in the second half to 07/06, GSH had a PBT margin of 6.2% - which is minus the pension credit.

GSH bunker-busted 07/06 expectations, let us hope they deliver again!

[simon gordon] 21/2/2007 17:06

Hoodless Brennan research - 13/2/07:

[simon gordon] 21/2/2007 14:58

AF WORX Group, bought 02/06:

[charterhouse3] 21/2/2007 08:59

Good morning Simon,

Just ask the Company using the Investor Relations link from the GSH website.
One of the Directors usually replies (via their PA) quite quickly. Maybe you can confirm their reply here in due course.

Interesting to see KBC have again marked up their bid/offer by 1p a few minutes ago. They were already the highest quote by a considerable margin so I can only presume they need any stock that they can get their hands on.

Something obviously going on in the background that will become apparent in due course.

CH3

[simon gordon] 20/2/2007 22:14

In the year to 07/06 did GSH lose any t/o and margin because of the loss of the BBC contract?

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From FM News - 11/05:

'The BBC has chosen six companies to tender for its FM services contract for its buildings in London and Scotland and for specialist FM services for all BBC properties across the UK. The 30-year deal between BBC and Land Securities Trillium (LST) was restructured in May and LST will no longer provide the BBC's FM services. The six companies are - Alfred McAlpine, Carillion Services, Haden Building Management, Johnson Controls, Mowlem and Taylor Woodrow.

ALSO The BBC has extended its facilities management contract with Land Securities Trillium by three months. The deal was due to end in March with a new supplier starting in April. LS Trillium will now remain the broadcaster's FM supplier until the end of June with the new supplier beginning activities from July. takes time to get the management of this kind of portfolio right. The BBC announced the restructuring of its £2.5 billion property outsourcing deal with LS Trillium in May, just over three years into a 30 year agreement.'

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I think this means that the BBC contract finished at the end of June 2006.

Will not the brunt of this loss occur in the year to 07/07? If so will not the new contracts just fill the gap and maybe add a touch more? Does this not mean that an EPS nearer to 30p is more likely? A rating of 15x.

I think I will have to pull in my horns a bit!

[simon gordon] 20/2/2007 16:35

CH3

I totally concur with your expectation!

Simon

[charterhouse3] 20/2/2007 16:26

Simon

Looking back at my previous posts I said (on 9th February) that "north of 480p" was a very fair target for the share price by the time of the interims.

Over the last week I have revised my hopes and (assuming there will be increased liquidity from Scarr Hall sales) I cannot see any reason for a prospective p/e of 20 not to be applied to my forecast earnings of 32p for this year.

So.........640p at some stage during the next 6 months.

CH3

[simon gordon] 20/2/2007 15:56

Hi CH3

Where do you see fair value?

I was thinking that the share price could hit £20.00 by 2012.

Simon

[charterhouse3] 20/2/2007 15:23

Hello guys and girl (although no sign of Anne today !!),

Note that the majority of large purchases are declared late - two from around 1pm today have just ben declared.

It is a hugely illiquid share. I would venture to suggest that quite a large chunk of the free float is in the hands of BB inhabiters (especially after that excellent TMF post the other week).

The market makers are extremely short of stock. KBC have been on the bid (and at a price way above the other two MM's) for a week now.

The shares are still, in my opinion, very reasonably priced so there should be plenty of steam left even now.

Marvellous stuff.

CH3

[theophilus] 20/2/2007 15:06

Thanks for that Simon - I could never have worked it out.

Th.

[simon gordon] 20/2/2007 15:03

TUPE:

'The Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations 2006 (SI 2006/246)1 (referred to below as TUPE 2006) is now the main piece of legislation governing the transfer of an undertaking, or part of one, to another. The regulations are designed to protect the rights of employees in a transfer situation enabling them to enjoy the same terms and conditions, with continuity of employment, as formerly.'

[theophilus] 20/2/2007 14:58

When I bought this I thought it would be good for nice steady growth but the speed of the increase has taken me by surprise.

It seems that more and more people are becoming aware of the merits of this company.

There is so much that I don't know.

Eg. Simon, "What is TUPE?"

Cheers

Th.

[charterhouse3] 20/2/2007 14:29

It is now getting extremely interesting as KBC are bidding 455 whilst Winterflood are offering 455.

KBC are the house brokers.

Not rocket science to see where we are heading.

;o)

[simon gordon] 20/2/2007 14:23

Just reading the Prospectus and it gives more detail on the Land Securities (BBC) contract.

It started Novemeber 2001 for ten years. It involved the transfer of 220 employees under TUPE.

The contract was the single largest contract by revenue during the year to 31 July 2004, accounting for approx. £14.6m of turnover.

A real feat to motor on after the loss of their largest contract.

[charterhouse3] 20/2/2007 13:31

Hello everyone,

I see that a large purchase this morning has triggered the next movement upwards.

Certainly looking good for 500p near term now.

CH3

[hanoversquare] 16/2/2007 18:46

Simon

Spice is a perfectly reasonable comparison as you suggest.

However, no matter which of the above you compare it to the current GSH share price is fundamentally undervalued.

I think there has been an increase in attention recently judging by the increased volume and, of course, the share price waking up too.

I would suggest that those who are already in have got in at a very low point.

There is much much more to come.

I did have a target of 500p near term (ie in the next 3 months) but further research has led me to raise my target to 600p before I will consider any sort of top slicing.

I realise that declaring this on a public BB puts me down as a hostage to fortune but anyone who is able to do rudimentary research on a Company should be able to deduce that the shares are currently somewhat of a bargain.

[annewilson] 16/2/2007 15:09

A buy of 10,000 shares at 433p just announced (although it took place a couple of hours ago).

No wonder KBC are on the bid and way above the other 2 market makers.

Anne

[courant] 15/2/2007 19:29

Nice idea but probably not. I think his holding prior to the float would also qualify for taper relief (given it was business property before the float).

Courant

[simon gordon] 15/2/2007 16:58

Could it be that Mr Scarr-Hall is waiting for tax relief before he decides to sell some of his shares?

From a Tax Planning site:

'The tax benefit obtained by investing in the AIM is that the investment qualifies for "business property relief", provided that the investment is made into "qualifying" companies. "Qualifying" companies are those carrying on a trade, and will exclude financial services companies, investment companies, and certain others.

This means that Business Asset Taper Relief is available to investors when disposing of qualifying AIM shares and this effectively reduces the rate of capital gains tax to only 20% for AIM investments held for a period of one year, and to only 10% for AIM investments held for a period of two or more years.

Furthermore, unlimited exemption from Inheritance Tax is available to private individuals provided that the investor has held shares in a qualifying company for at least two years. After the two year holding period, the shares should be retained throughout life by the investor and will no longer be considered part of the investor's estate for IHT purposes. This represents an inheritance tax saving of 40% under current legislation.

In the event of death within the two year holding period, the shares will be treated in the same manner as if invested in companies quoted on the Stock Exchange, in which case the share value at the date of death would form part of the investor's estate for inheritance tax purposes. However, a surviving spouse who inherited the shares would only have to survive the balance of the 2 years to qualify for the business property relief.'

[annewilson] 15/2/2007 12:17

Simon,

more excellent links. Confirmation, as if it were needed, about what a high quality Company this is.

Great stuff.

Anne

[simon gordon] 14/2/2007 19:26

GSH just oozes class:

'Two North Staffordshire businesses have been judged the best in the Midlands in prestige awards organised by the British Chambers of Commerce.

Facilities management specialists GSH Group plc was voted Business of the Year while Hanley Economic Building Society came top in the Commitment to the Community Category at the regional stage of the Chamber Awards 2006.'