Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 01/3/2018 14:18

It's all there...

[polaris] 01/3/2018 14:17

Phillis - it wasn't inspired at the time. It looks inspired now, as metals prices are back in something of a boom phase. At $1800-2000, it was a gamble and a half. It's taken some time to come good, but then i arrived much later and so did not have to sit through the wilderness years! ;-)

[polaris] 01/3/2018 14:14

I would be pleased to see a forecast for next FY in the H1 and FY results. You do not need to make a raft of announcements unless the prevailing conditions show a significant deviation from expectations. A company like GFM could easily add this in to their results statements. Most other resource companies have this level of interaction with the market. The statement in December was as welcome as it was surprising. However, it allowed the likes of me to build a position based on the empirical evidence that is hard to achieve with well-planned updates! ;-) Granted, it is an area where management need to be more pro-active.

All conferences etc are pay to attend. They charge both sides of the coin - companies to present and you to attend! You also need a good presenter. How many times have i seen a resource company tank because their CEO or designated presenter is plain awful. Presentations must be slick, short and present all the necesssary information. The presenter must be completely on top of everything. Sadly, too many are just taking the fat pay cheque home. They win whatever the sentiment is for the company. They award themselves options at favourable prices and then sit back. It's rare to see them dig into their own pockets to buy shares, mostly they are some kind of incentivised accrual or bought via a 'bonus'. An altruistic board is something of a pipe dream, IMO! :-(

[acuere] 01/3/2018 14:06

Yeah it’s all very well to let the figures do the talking, but if promotion gains us a PE rating of 13 instead of 10 that could add 40/50p to the share price Worth paying for surely?

[gary1966] 01/3/2018 14:04

Missed the cow thing. How much did they spend and who did they gift them to? How long ago was this?

[phillis] 01/3/2018 14:03

The purchase of the minority was inspired
It bought the licence extension and a bigger share of the profits as the zinc cycle turned up
Buying cows and gifting them is certainly a little unusual
Remember Rowntree, Cadbury and other Victorian philanthropists?

[volsung] 01/3/2018 14:02

I am liking the look of that chart. I buy these now

[gary1966] 01/3/2018 13:59

polaris,

Things like Vox markets and Proactive Investors? Do they cost the company that is presenting? More regular trading updates and company guidance. Appreciate RNS's do cost the company money. Half year results in August and Finals in April with nothing in-between is too long for a resource company. Company knew a long time ago that they were entering a phase where cash was going to accumulate rapidly but no hint yet about what they envisage doing with it. They could have given guidance when the debt was repaid and announced in November.

These are all little things that would be free or cost little that would keep the company in the spotlight and momentum going. On any metric this company is grossly undervalued and the message needs to get out there.

[polaris] 01/3/2018 13:47

You have to pay brokers...they may put out price notes but they do come at a price. I'd rather the figures speak for themselves and the 'free press' do their work. That's us, boys and girls! ;-) We are the foot soldiers in this scenario.

[acuere] 01/3/2018 13:13

I’d like to see the directors be more pro active in promoting the company with brokers and institutions. Two brokers covering, one of which hasn’t commented since August when it had a share price target of 93p isn’t good enough.
They have a good story to tell here and if they could attract more broker coverage then we should get an appreciation in share price If we could just achieve an industry standard PE ratio of 13, that would be an easy way to return value to shareholders.

[polaris] 01/3/2018 12:42

Interestingly, Zn is testing the region i wanted a few weeks back. However, it is now below the 50dma. I think a lot of this is down to recent $ strength. The reported stock is still falling, but it is the price of Zn that is most important.

[bubloo] 01/3/2018 12:38

Thx Polaris

[polaris] 01/3/2018 12:37

That and the fact that they significantly overpaid ($110M) for the increased equity in May 2012, although they did also get the mine licencse extended until 2037 at the same time. It took the best part of 5-years for the share price to make a new high after the buyout. The price of Zn at the time was around $1850 cf lows of around $800 in 2003 and the high of $4400 in 2006. The fact that the commodity cycle has now turned well in their favour is good, but that can be of no joy to the shareholders who had to suffer 4+ years of poor share price. The 'cows' episode is still just plain bizarre to me. Before that was the Spitfire Oil stake. Phillis has also pointed out some of the options grants have been unusual.

However, we hope that all of that is behind GFM and they can go forward and make pots of cash. The directors will no doubt do much better than the PIs but i hope we can all drink from the trough while the times are good!

regards,

Paul

[phillis] 01/3/2018 12:13

Apart from the hiccups caused by sub contractors fatalities it is hard to see what GFM can be criticised for
The commodity cycle is outside their control

The BOD however is not independent, too many buddies of(too)long standing and the stench of non Execs being awarded ridiculous options

[rose_by_another_name] 01/3/2018 12:02

I wonder how close to "shovel ready" the
copper/zinc deposits held by Anglesey
Mining in Wales might be. I have a small
holding languishing there.

[gary1966] 01/3/2018 11:38

Polaris,

I looked back through years of RNS’s previously after a comment about the directors wasting money on adventures elsewhere. I could only find one and it cost the co $2m approx, if my memory serves me right. It wasn’t a biggie and with hindsight they shouldn’t have done it but we can all be perfect with the benefit of hindsight. Not sure why you have the view that the directors are flaky unless they are all 99 years old. Last time they had lots of cash they bought back a serious amount of shares at a profit, this was good business. They also increased their stake in the mine, which we are now greatly benefitting from as well as substantially extending the length of the licence which we will benefit from for many years to come. They also substantially upgraded the mine equipment and got the company through one of the worst dips ever in commodity prices. Geez I wish I could have more flaky management.

I do agree however that now all the hard graft has been done that the very strong cash flows should now be spent on getting the zone 2 licence or in the absence of this, substantial returns to shareholders in the form of dividends. As a company it would then attract the kind of investors that find CAML appealing.

ATB

[polaris] 01/3/2018 11:15

We wait for the actual results and then i revisit my numbers in 26950. there are a few here who think i have underestimated H2. Once we have the actual numbers for production, sales etc then i can extract the numbers on smelting charges and then compare with the market numbers for 2017 and the forward numbers for 2018, which were posted around the Glencore results i think, suggesting lower charges for 2018 due to supply tightness. My guess on current info is the range is likely to be 180-220p, and it is a guess.

The fact that GFM are debt free, seemingly now well run, are building a cash pile, a decent current LoM, and have possibilities to extend production and resource/reserves going forward are all positives. The flaky nature of the board in the past and their whims for ill advised ventures is a negative.

If they decide to pay a dividend then i think we will see a different set of investors arrive. It's all in the balance at the moment as we await the facts for 2017. We know the figures will be good by inference from the debt clearance. It is just a matter of how good, depending on the actual production numbers and byproduct credits.

regards,

Paul

[bubloo] 01/3/2018 10:48

I have reviewed the calculations of polaris on 26950. After extrapolating from the 2016 full year and 2017 first half results I have also concluded that pat for 2018 would be around 58 million equating to an eps of 32.4 cents or 23.4 pence. My calculations were based on applying percentages to the previous results and giving marginal leeway in COS, slight increase in margins with higher zinc prices and no interest payment on debt.

I am not sure at what forward pe ratios pure zinc plays must be trading.

So based on polaris summation we should around 180 to 234 pence after full year results.

I am a small time investor which i accumulated during recent crash.

What i am interested is whether the more professional investors here would recommend buying more here

[bionicdog] 28/2/2018 10:05

WRT to my post last night , it was never 2p , that's the memory playing tricks. I think that it was 4p and shot up to 6p overnight while I was looking at it.

[forcemode] 28/2/2018 05:02

RMJ - I went back to your 25121 post and carried on reading! Interesting to note that the discussion (back in Jan 2015) then was about the imminent license, over three bloody years ago!!!

IIRC I got in here at around 6p back in 2002ish and am now enjoying a modest free carry!

Cheers

[rmjones] 28/2/2018 01:57

Well! I don't like bragging but... while we are on the subject:-

rmjones - 20 Jan 2015 - 13:16:12 - 25121

[up just a little bit] 27/2/2018 23:13

That's my dream

[bigbelter] 27/2/2018 22:20

4.75p in 2003

[up just a little bit] 27/2/2018 21:26

Oilbethere, Great name! I got in at 93p about 10 years ago.