Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[gottafly] 13/7/2017 07:23

200p is the general consensus (on here) for the price at the year end, so we might see it earlier.

[philoosh] 12/7/2017 14:47

200p would be very good at the moment!!!

[double double] 10/7/2017 14:38

SP taking a little breather, I can see this going to around 200p possbibly in the next few weeks before a retrace. I am also hoping for upgrades and for Cantor to provide initial forecast numbers for 2018.

[gottafly] 10/7/2017 12:11

Well seems we have met the 180p Cantor price ceiling, no break through above this level as yet. It will I presume come down to when/whether revised forecasts are issued, reckon a revision is overdue.

[miti 1000] 07/7/2017 11:28

Just bought another 25k....cantors covered GHT with a great note earlier this year and its been spot on so a good move imo.

[double double] 07/7/2017 09:31

That steep rise I spoke about previously that started in August 2016 looks still intact and is pointing towards 200-210p all things being equal.

Also the movement we saw from late Oct to Dec 2016 when we went from 115p to 155p looks eerily similar to what we have just been through from late Jan to Jun (a bit more stretched out and volatile), ie we could be in for 160p +50p and ties in with rise from Aug 2016.

My simple observation and not meant to be take as a ramp or recommendation.

[gottafly] 07/7/2017 08:04

Well well well.

So we will, for the time being, have two forecasts/opinions.

DD, I suspect that you are correct and that N1Singer will be exiting, as I have said before they are either offside or have a different agenda perhaps even wanting GHT bought 'on the cheap'.

So we have real competition and hopefully at least one broker who will do a proper job.

Great news indeed.

[double double] 07/7/2017 07:15

Excellent news today. Next stage is to sack N1Singer. I knew there was something going on. No need to keep a house broker that doesnt support you.

[gottafly] 06/7/2017 13:59

The analyst briefing is set for July 25th followed by a presentation to private investors (well done the tea boy).

It is difficult to imagine how the current GHT forecasts can stay as they are given the continued (and expected to continued growth) 20 plus% growth. The forecasts assume that growth from now onward will drop back to the industry/sector average.

I for one do not believe that an abrupt slow down is going to happen, so assuming the presentation will be positive and that GHT remain confident of strong growth then something has to give? Either GHT downplay their prospects to support the forecasts or they commit to strong growth in which case the forecasts must be revised upwards.

Could it be that before the 25th - less than three weeks away - we will see an N1Singer forecast revision and perhaps another big win announcement would give them an excuse.

[double double] 05/7/2017 21:01

2 cheap growth stocks I'd buy in July

hxxp://www.aol.co.uk/money/2017/07/05/2-cheap-growth-stocks-id-buy-in-july/

By The Motley Fool 5 Jul 2017, 13:40

While there is a considerable amount of doom and gloom around at the present time following the EU referendum and the general election, there are still growth opportunities available for long-term investors. Certainly, the UK's economic outlook is less assured than it was a year ago. However, some stocks continue to deliver high growth prospects at a reasonable price. Here are two such companies which could be worth buying right now.

Growth potential

Reporting on Wednesday was software and services company Gresham Technologies(LSE: GHT). It announced a rise in revenue of 26% compared to the first half of the previous year. Within this figure, total Clareti revenue is 52% higher. This includes the contribution from recently acquired C24 Technologies. Clareti software revenues were up 136% versus the same period of the prior year, which means adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will be strongly ahead of the prior year.

During the first half of the year, the company signed eight new CTC clients across a wide range of industry segments and geographies. This should help to improve the diversity of the business, thereby reducing its overall risk profile. Given that the company continues to trade in line with previous guidance, its outlook remains relatively upbeat.

Looking ahead, Gresham Technologies is forecast to increase its earnings by 27% in the current year. This growth rate is around four times that of the wider index, and suggests that investor sentiment may improve as the year goes by. With a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of just 1, the company appears to be undervalued given its outlook. As such, now could prove to be a buying opportunity.

[double double] 05/7/2017 18:12

I suspect they are allowing friends time to get in before its too late. I wont buy the idea they are being cautious because of Greshams past history. Todays we have facts from Gresham but forecasts fly in the face of that. There are underhand games being played and we suspected this from the off earlier in the year.

I got the n1singer snippet from research tree. You can get some full research and snippets for free from there.

We are not overbought yet, we could move higher.

[gottafly] 05/7/2017 17:47

dd thanks very much for the information, it does seem that N1Singer have a super prudent view of progress.

So on the wins front - 8 in six months compared to 11 in the previous 12 - how the heck is this not a substantial improvement. They state that the group is in a good place and seeing positive momentum which is expected to continue for the rest of the year - this would imply another 8 wins, ok let us scale back to 6 but that makes 14 some 3/30% than anything previous!

So N1 are sticking to their turnover estimate of 20 million for this year, that would make H2 revenue 10.2 million which is a 4% uplift on H1. This compares to a 20% uplift in 2016 (a year when the numbers were only just met in H2) and a 30% uplift in 2015. So the 10.2 for H2 hardly supports the 'positive momentum which we expect to carry on for the rest of the year' statement.

So three possibilities:-

N1 are correct and the dynamics of the business are changing such that H2 is no longer a significant advancement on H1 as it used to be - remember their forecast for 2018 at 21.5 shows a significant growth slow down

N1 are sandbagging and have another agenda in holding the share price back

N1 have the same tea boy as GHT.

Answers on a post card please but this does have a strange odour about it.

The N1 statement simply does not make any sense.

[double double] 05/7/2017 11:41

I am sure the brokers will be penciling in new numbers ahead of the presentations on 25 and 26 July and the share price will reflect this ahead of this in the coming few weeks. Gresham has always moved on little or no volume.

Edit just read this from N1Singer and I am getting to understand fustration gottafly/shytalk has about this broker. I get the feeling the share price is being managed.

Gresham issued a half year trading update indicating trading is in line with expectations and that it remains confident in the full year outlook. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA are expected to be strongly up, with Clareti driving the performance. Clareti revenues are expected to be up 52% y-o-y (35% excluding C24). We are not making any changes to forecasts. Eight CTC wins in H1’17 compares against 11 won in the whole of 2016, 11 in 2015 and 8 in 2014. A couple of the wins are also in the strategically important North American market and the group is also starting to replace legacy vendors. As such, we believe the group is in a good place and seeing positive momentum which we expect to carry on for the rest of the year.

[4-10] 05/7/2017 10:45

TechMarketView
Update from Richard Holway's firm on the trading update

Gresham revenues up 26% in H1

Dale Peters, 09:03, 05 July 2017

Gresham Technologies continues to perform well and in line with expectations. Its H1 (30 June 2017) trading update for the transaction control and data integrity solution provider states that it expects revenues to be up 26% compared to H1 FY16—this equates to revenues of c.£9.8m (H1 FY16: £7.8m).

As we reported when its full FY16 results were released (see Gresham Technologies building momentum), the real driver for growth is Gresham's Clareti Transaction Control (CTC) software, which provides reconciliation, verification and validation of transactions. During H1 FY17 it added eight new CTC clients, including three in North America (see Gresham chalks up another US win), and others in Europe and Asia Pacific.

Total Clareti H1 FY17 revenues, including contributions from C24 Technologies, which it acquired in October 2016 (see Gresham buys C24 Technologies, gearing up for faster data), are expected to be up 52% on the same period last year. Clareti software revenues will be up 136% compared to last year (101% excluding C24 Technologies).

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be strongly ahead of H1 FY16 and management reports it is confident of meeting expectations for the full year.

As we as discussed in our recent Regtech report, the mounting burden of regulation and prospect of higher penalties are helping to drive technology spend in the sector. We expect there to be plenty more opportunities for Gresham in 2017, particularly for CTC.

[gottafly] 05/7/2017 09:22

dd agree that the hoped for step change in business looks like it might be happening.

The trading update was provided in very quick time (last year it was July 25th) meaning I think that the numbers were pretty much achieved some time back. I reckon there is a high degree of prudence in these numbers which bodes very well for H2 and the full year results. This is very different to H2 last year when last minute business was needed to just about make the numbers.

The market reaction has been modest with no real mark up or volume. The headlines of the trading update simply say - The Group is trading in line with market expectations. Management remains confident in the full year outlook. So on this basis there would be no reason to regrade the share.

H1 revenues for 2016 were £7.8 million, with the stated 26% uplift then we get a 2017 H1 number of £9.8 million. For the full (2017) year, since H2 is normally at least 20% better than H1, we are looking at £21.6 million. If accelerated growth continues then it could be even higher. The N1 singer forecast for 2017 is £20 million and for 2018 (something that has been queried on here and suggested as nonsense) is £21.5 million.

So it looks very likely that GHT will meet the N1 Singer 2018 forecast one year earlier! Perhaps a regrading is indeed in order and 200p or more.

[double double] 05/7/2017 08:34

Without any upgrades GHT is trading on pe of 25 for 2018.

Current group revenue forecast for 2017 is +16% to £20m from £17.2m. In the first half we are already up 26% from this time last year. Second half is usually more interesting.

This time last year they announced 6 new clients against 8 this time. The step change in client wins I had hoped for this year is taking place. Second half is usually more interesting.

[amt] 05/7/2017 07:58

On the face of it business is booming. Havent done full analysis but wobble of a year ago is well and truly out of the way and the road ahead clear for high growth and highly profitable business with recurring revenues making predictability much easier. So pe of say 50 on this years numbers would be reasonable whatever that gives to share price I have no idea

[jadeticl3] 05/7/2017 07:47

Management clearly have read richjp's comments on this site and thus issued a statement forthwith!!

[aishah] 05/7/2017 07:37

Yes, strong update. Good metrics.

[double double] 05/7/2017 07:27

On the face of it looks very good news indeed. Would not be surprised by some upgrades hopefully.

[gottafly] 04/7/2017 13:22

dd

Very amusing regarding the tea boy but after all he is only responsible for making the tea, well I hope so anyway!

I think this deal was signed in the US on Friday 30th, after the close of the London market, so it will be an H1 deal. Now you would perhaps think that this was signed to ensure that the H1 numbers were met and that an incentive was given to the customer to sign on June 30th rather than in July but then there is the July 4th holiday so perhaps it needed to be done prior to that. Of course June could be the half year for the bank also, so perhaps it was a budgetary thing.

So the implication is that GHT only just made the HI numbers - you will recall that big signings were made right at the last year end, including some immediate revenue recognition. However, no revenue can accrue in H1 this time (because the tea boy would have said so) so numbers wise it has no direct relevance to the H1 results. Clearly this deal is considered significant, hence the RNS, and I suspect the figures are at a minimum level.

I therefore expect the H1 numbers to be ok/in line with expectations otherwise I think GHT would have been obliged to include an H1 statement of some kind with this RNS. One can only assume therefore that this is good news and that the timing is purely coincidental, because of the size/importance of the deal GHT had to release an RNS but it looks odd with H1 ending at the same time. As I said above perhaps the tea boy wanted to get it all sorted before the July 4th celebrations.

[double double] 04/7/2017 11:23

As usual Gresham seem to raise more questions with their out of the blue RNSs. Something else I thought about. They could have tried to release this win a day (working day) earlier so that the win is included as part of the 6 months. I am sure it would have helped in telling a better story for the 6 months to 30 June 2017.

It seems the tea boy has come back, no one else would have him.

[jadeticl3] 04/7/2017 10:09

So wouldwe all richjp. The information yesterday was good as far as it went, but it does not provide the context in which that news is embedded. Why would they not give an update providing the wider picture?

[richjp] 04/7/2017 09:06

Obviously good news yesterday however I would still like to see a first half trading update within the next week.