Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[richjp] 30/5/2017 19:15

dd, I remember reading an interview with Anthony Bolton, formerly of Fidelity,whom many will know is primarily a fundamentalist and contrarian, a couple of years back.

He said that although he was not a chartist as such, he did use charts to some extent to try and time his exact buying point. He then went on to say however, that he ignored any chart data more than five years old, presumably because he thought that anyone who was going to sell will have done so after five years.

I think you can obviously debate about exactly after what period, you can ignore historical data, but the obvious low for GHT was about eight years ago. I tend to agree with Bolton and I think that older chart data is no longer relevant.

[double double] 30/5/2017 17:37

Historic day today well sort of. If you take out the period of RTN when the ght share price was a in a bubble, we seem to have closed highest as far as going back to 1988. This may also explain last six months of sideways trading we have had as 140p and 150-160 seems to have been a barrier 3 times before.

Its hard to judge the RTN period as the share price was very wild in a relatively short period of time and based on not alot. Dont to want get too ahead but our next target area for the share price seems to be the RTN period. However, we can be sure it will take longer this time than last but it will be based on substance!

[gottafly] 30/5/2017 11:43

Seems we might be in an upward mode.

Funnily I had just looked at the share price over the weekend and at circa 160p is was pretty much at the same level as the start of the year. I think you will find that the share price was 113p at the start of December and then rapidly climbed to 163p in mid January, as I say since then it has been treading water.

Why would the feel good factor suddenly return, would it do so on a whim? I suspect there is a tangible reason, perhaps some big signings, that us poor PI's have no knowledge of.

[nurdin] 30/5/2017 10:47

Whose target is that?

[double double] 30/5/2017 09:46

We are off to the races, only 15p away from that 180p target. The share price feels very much like August 2016 when we went from well under 100p to 165p. That steep uptrend looks in tact.

Edit that only 5p away from that 180p target!

[double double] 25/5/2017 09:31

Good H1 is probably in the bag. Someting positive in the background is moving this share price

We need to get past 162.5p and stay above for a few days. We are at 5 year high.

[double double] 24/5/2017 10:31

Spread is very tight so may go higher.

[nurdin] 24/5/2017 10:24

I was losing hope lol...good to see this move

[double double] 24/5/2017 09:33

Its alive! Perhaps some good news coming or a technical move I was talking about a few weeks back.

I think this is more than a technical rise.

We need to close and stay above 162.5p and if so bodes very well.

[gottafly] 20/5/2017 08:23

Interesting BLOG on the GHT site -
Data integrity can no longer be neglected in anti-money laundering (AML) programs -
hxxps://www.greshamtech.com/blog/data-integrity-can-no-longer-be-neglected-in-anti-money-laundering-aml-programs

A brief extract below, well woth a read and another market driver for CTC.

The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) risk based banking rule, went into effect on January 1, 2017 and will have a significant impact on the validation of financial institutions’ transaction monitoring and sanctions filtering systems. The final rule requires regulated institutions to annually certify that they have taken the necessary steps to ensure compliance.

Data integrity is particularly interesting because it arguably hasn’t been given the same emphasis as other components of an effective anti-money laundering (AML) program, such as a risk assessment.

Data integrity doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon based on the fact that the NYDFS has just shined the spotlight on this issue. In our highly fragmented and compartmentalized modern world we may need to see the challenges we face through a new and objective lens.

Traditional approaches to data integrity projects have yielded limited quantifiable results in the past. Isn’t it about time to try a more flexible solution which can evolve seamlessly with the institution’s regulatory requirements and technological landscape?

Cost, flexibility and speed are three components of monitoring systems that financial institutions must manage effectively as regulatory requirements continue to expand due to growing threats such as cybersecurity. Data integrity is much broader than just compliance, but building the foundation to get it right for compliance monitoring can cross pollinate into other areas of the enterprise. Ultimately, data integrity can become a strategic business advantage when trying to enter new markets and launch new products.

[double double] 11/5/2017 10:13

I can feel a change of mood in the share price coming soon or perhaps it may conincide with a move higher before or around end of June as investors gain more confidence in the 6/12 2017 numbers.

[double double] 09/5/2017 18:44

On cue holdings RNS, it seem that Kestrel increasing their holding to over 15% from 14% last end October 2016.

[richjp] 09/5/2017 17:08

Technical Trader,

I thought I would make this a separate post because this relates to something you raised a short while ago. It was asked if Max Royde of Kestrel’s departure from the board was a concern. We were told that it was not and that in fact Kestrel had continued to buy more shares since his departure.

After the meeting broke up I had a quick one to one chat to Chris Errington who as we know is also standing down. He seemed very upbeat about moving on. He said that Kestrel’s preference was NOT to have directors on a board unless they felt it absolutely necessary to protect their investment. Usually when they go on to a board, boardroom changes end up being made which is what happened at GHT for example. When Kestrel feel the time is right, they prefer to stand down.

CE said the difficulty is, that if Kestrel do have a director on a company board, it inhibits their ability to trade as we discussed here recently and it means that they have to be very careful when it comes to compliance. Kestrel primarily wish to trade and not get directly involved in less they have to.

So taking into account the chairman’s observation and the conversation with CE, I think the fact that the Kestrel directors are standing down, is actually positive in that they feel the company is in safe hands for the future.

[richjp] 09/5/2017 17:05

Whilst I agree that a few deals dropping into the next quarter could be misleading, that is something I think we just have to accept may happen. Q1 for example is often slow for orders because customers are still sorting out their budgets for the year ahead. What is always important for me is the cash position which they could give and they could also give an indication of whether they still expect to meet analysts’ forecasts for the next half year whatever half year that is. Last autumn there was no TU which I recall prompted concern here every time the share price dipped.

The meeting was positive although one or two questions were raised. Acquisitions remain a possibility for the future either to increase their geographical footprint and or to add technology. There was nothing to hint or imply that something might happen soon. One PI questioned whether it was right for GHT to spend time or money on acquisitions when that cash could be used to fund expansion. Personally I have no issue with acquisitions as long as they get it right as they did with C24.

The same PI also suggested that GHT might be pricing their services too low. The chairman replied that some customers thought the pricing was too high. They face competition from incumbent suppliers who might slash their price by half to keep a competitor out and also internal IT departments who might claim to be cheaper. I spoke up and supported the chairman and CEO’s views regarding incumbent suppliers. It is not just about having a superior product, a point which I have tried to get across on this board on a number of occasions, having been in IT sales myself.

Someone asked if any competitors had emerged. We were told that there is always competition from long established suppliers, but it seems that GHT feel that there are no new initiatives similar to GHT coming along so they still have a technical advantage. Also the fact that GHT have poured a lot of money into R&D in recent years means that the barrier to entry is getting higher for anyone starting from scratch.

Management is pleased with the way things are going and mentioned that they now had a number of reference sites in North America which is important whereas a couple of years ago there were none.

In summary it was encouraging but as I keep saying, I think we need to be realistic about the rate at which GHT can grow.

[jadeticl3] 07/5/2017 20:22

I have asked for this newsletter but have absolutely no idea what it will provide.

[gottafly] 07/5/2017 09:30

richjp, whilst I wholeheartedly agree that we need better/consistent communication )I have been a major critic), I don't think it would be wise for GHT to commit to quarterly updates.

GHT is still relatively small business so some major 'deal' or two dropping the wrong side of the announcement deadline is likely to generate 'misinformation'. Also I want to see GHT concentrating on the business of winning deals rather than looking at a very short term quarterly view and potentially becoming distracted. In short I think that quarterly reporting is only really appropriate for a amjor business.

I get the feeling that GHT, from what is announced and said on here, is moving so fast at the moment and that this is possibly the reak out year as indicated/hoped for by Manocha. However, totally agree that an early July half year announcement would be appropriate.

You say you went to the AGM, well done, what was the management confidence level like, very high? The report from the shareholder presentation was very positive so presumably nothing has changed.

Very exciting times ahead in my view - MIFID II, IFRS 9, PSD2 - a fast changing world.

By the way if you go onto the GHT website and the Investor Section, you get an invite to subscribe to a newsletter.

[richjp] 06/5/2017 22:14

I agree that it is consistency that we need. For example leading up to the AGM we all wanted a TU or AGM statement, whatever you wish to call it, however there was no feeling of certainty that we would actually get one. Ideally I would like them to issue a statement stating that in the future we will receive quarterly updates.

[double double] 06/5/2017 19:33

If we get regular quarterly updates it will also be fine with me and if so then I would not expect RNS or press releases of client wins in the interim. However, there is no consistency with Gresham and that is the main problem. And whilst the company is a public listed company it is only right they keep investors informed, especially when they have investors who have supported them over the decades.

On a more positive note, we may be in the early stages of a turnaround in the share price

[richjp] 06/5/2017 12:28

miti,

I was also at the investor presentation however my understanding as to what they said regarding investor communication is very different to yours. I thought they acknowledged that things could be improved and would look at means of doing so.

I went to the AGM this week. At the start of the informal Q&A session after the meeting, I voiced the opinion that the trading update issued on the day could have provided a bit more information, particularly with regard to the cash position. I was told in response that it was not actually a TU but an AGM statement therefore the content was different. I was not too happy with that answer, so I pointed out although technically it was not a TU, many people would probably perceive it as one and certainly discussions on this board in recent weeks clearly show that people were expecting a TU. They did again acknowledge that someone does keep an eye on what is said here.

I then suggested that when it comes to the half year results, I would like to see a TU issued shortly after the half year end on 30th June, as the figures although unaudited are known. After all they issued a TU on 9th January shortly after the 2016 year end, so I see no reason why we should have to wait until late August, as in past years, for information regarding the half year.

I also said that I was disappointed that there was no third quarter or autumn TU last year and I felt that there should be one this year. My view remains that if we get regular quarterly updates that will be fine.

My views were acknowledged and it I got the impression that my suggestions would be considered.

In case I am sounding like Mr. Grumpy, I was supportive of the board in regard to other discussions and remain a holder.

[miti 1000] 06/5/2017 08:13

I note the continued comments on the lack of investor communication .Manocha made it pretty clear to me at investors presentation that GHT are not bothered at increasing their communication so I suggest investors just live with it. In reality, only 4 of us could be bothered to turn up to the presentation, so you could hardly blame him for making that clear, especially with such shareholder apathy.

He said they had much more important things to do as they were working at full tilt with the resources they had . Yes, progress is not as fast as many of us would like but the agm statement was reassuring.

In the meantime, as I mentioned a few months back, we have an aggressive seller who is keeping a firm lid on any share price gain and there are no big buyers to take him out. As I found with MCGN , there was a big seller for many months at 185 but once he gets taken out and sentiment changes, the share price can motor on. Its now 325. I fully expect that scenario to play out here once the market appreciates that GHT is on an upward curve.

[gottafly] 04/5/2017 12:21

Well the strong AGM statement did not surprise and I hinted at this with the share purchases/movement(drop) immediately prior to the AGM, seems somebody was in the know!

Signing 5 new CTC customers pretty much keeps up the run rate of one per month, GHT had only previously announced 2 of these I believe. Yes no numbers are quoted and there is no indication, as yet, that a breakthrough is being achieved.

Confidence does seem to remian high and with Manocha being named as a the top 10 UK data entrepreneur in The Data 50 Awards increased the spotlight and profile of GHT.

Communication, as DD points out, is still very much work in progress. My view however is that GHT are keen to remain on the prudent side and without misleading the market keeping back all they can. We have had extensive discussion on here about the N1 Singer 2018 forecast, most of us on here think it is 'baloney' especially as their detailed report is much more bullish.

I think the truth is that we are being told the very minimum. I personally believe that the half year numbers will be very good.

As always DYOR.

[4-10] 04/5/2017 10:08

Welcome to our merry bunch of investors AISHAH "May the Force be with you" it's Star Wars day for those who don't know - sad but true.

[aishah] 04/5/2017 09:04

Maiden purchase this morning following strong AGM statement. Been on my watch list since Techinvest started coverage a while ago. They added to their portfolio @157.5 post results in March. SCSW also initiated with a BUY back in Feb @152p. dyor