Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[gottafly] 10/1/2018 20:32

For the avoidance of doubt no forecasts have been made for 2019. I am reliably informed that we can expect new forecasts at the time of the full year results in March. Very poor that we have to wait that long in my view since it creates a vacuum, still this is GHT.

[double double] 10/1/2018 18:24

In fact we questioned the 2018 broker revenue forecast back in March of last year and suggested that figure would be met in 2017 and hey presto!

[double double] 10/1/2018 16:13

richjp
10 Jan '18 - 16:04 - 6894 of 6894 (Filtered)

[richjp] 10/1/2018 16:04

What experience do you have about the industry?

[double double] 10/1/2018 15:48

richjp mischievous as ever....

Broker got the revenue figure wrong by a whole year....the postings are there for all to see, we have been talking about 2018 forecasts, but dont let the facts get in the way of a cheap dig eh font of all knowledge...

...you forgot to mention you were in the industry for over 30 years.

[richjp] 10/1/2018 15:32

This is my largest holding and is 24% of my portfolio, with cash next at 12% then a fund at 6%. Talk about an unbalanced portfolio.

The results are good overall although I wonder if they might not have made their revenue target had they not been able to book a large part of the recently announced order in 2017, rather than spreading it in their preferred way with their SaaS business model. I am not over impressed with EBITDA as a measure of performance, particularly with software companies and I await to hear the pre tax profit, which may disappoint a little with the investment they are making in North America in particular. It seems that the broker forecasts, criticised by one or two here, have turned about to be quite accurate.

I think that perhaps the most important message is the progress they have made in North America. There had to be a risk element to that and it augurs well for the future that they seem to have pulled it off. That risk element may be the reason for the cautious broker forecast previously for 2019. As far as the company is concerned they are now in a position to take stock and decide how they go forward. They have mentioned partnerships before and I suspect that we may hear something along those lines this year.

[gottafly] 10/1/2018 15:13

Interesting retweet by Ian Manocha with the good progress in the USA.

ianmanocha Retweeted

TechMarketView
‏

@TechMarketView
3h3 hours ago
More
.@greshamtech close another good year, with 15 new clients for its Clareti transaction control #software and good progress in the US.

[jadeticl3] 10/1/2018 08:53

In money terms this is now my second largest holding, above BP, AV, VOD, etc so I am well in profit now. It could become my largest holding when it reaches £10!

[stewartf] 10/1/2018 01:13

I created this thread 13 years ago. Glad to see the thread header finally becoming a fact rather than just an aspiration. Hopefully all of you who have stuck with it for so long (and I do notice several familiar names are still here) will see your reward.

[jadeticl3] 09/1/2018 20:27

The Header for this site now appears to be a fact rather than a wish. What a pleasant day this is!

[double double] 09/1/2018 13:46

gottafly perhaps extra spending on sales/developement or similar. But that is ok as client numbers and sales are higher means we are getting results. Margins will pick up in the (hopefully) next few years as CTC totally takes over the entire business.

With that kind of cash building, next year onwards could provide buying opportunity for the company and if bought well earnings/share price enhancing for us share holders.

Looks like Blackrock smaller companies trust is buying since last half at 2.9% now.
hxxps://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/literature/policies/brsct-portfolio-disclosure.pdf

[gottafly] 09/1/2018 12:12

dd, yes I noticed the revenue over performance. But for some strange reason, revenue recognition?, this does not seem to have translated into EDITDA which is slightly lower than the £5.2 N1Singer forecast (still a great result though).

Cash is also much higher than forecast - £8.5 million against the N1Singer £7.7, so this again hints at over performance.

The market certainty seems to like the results, after dropping a few pence at opening it has moved forwards strongly. 24 trades so far today and 400,000 shares going through at 200p.

So we now have to wait for a couple of months to the full years results scheduled for release on March 13th. The results should hopefully provide us with the explanations to the above queries.

Anybody brave enough to do an share price forecast for end 2018, or do we need to wait until the full results in March?

And of course we still have no analyst forecast revisions!!!

[double double] 09/1/2018 10:16

amt I think you may find that pe is now historic. Lets see what forecasts we are presented with.

Excellent results, I wanted the client wins to accelerate from now on and it seems going that way. share price is still low, brokers were forecasting revenue of £21.5m for 2018, we came in at £21.3m in 2017. I am still waiting for new broker forecasts to appear and the high volume continues this morning.

[amt] 09/1/2018 07:29

Good results. Pe of about 25 so share price probably about right.

[double double] 08/1/2018 16:36

1.3m volume on the eve of the trading update.

[double double] 03/1/2018 16:02

Not in 2019 but 2029 please, gives us plenty of time to grow into a FTSE large cap company. I can wait as I have for over a decade or so.

[gottafly] 02/1/2018 14:27

Happy New Year to all GHT investors. Yes GHT had a very good 2017 and I am sure we would settle for the same again in 2018. Assuming that we want to repeat our share price prediction 'game' then it seems sensible, as richjp suggests, to leave this until after the trading update in a weeks time.

Hopefully the trading update will provide a decent amount of information and dare I say perhaps it will trigger some analysts revised forecasts especially since I don't believe this is anything available for 2019. Having said that, perhaps the analysts don't think that GHT will still be 'independent' in 2019!!!!

[double double] 01/1/2018 19:34

Happy new year to all and hopefully one for Gresham. My hope from Gresham in 2017 was that their clients wins accelerate from the usual 10 to 12 per year as in previous years. Interims indicates that was happening and my hope from the ta due on 9 jan is confirmation of this. All good things then will follow on from such news.Whilst the share price disappointed some of us I think the results will not disappoint. We have discussed before Gresham does not trade a normal market due to factors such as shares being tightly held, lack of news flow, etc. And so as we have seen in the past the share price overshoots or undershoots on no news or volume.

[richjp] 30/12/2017 11:13

jadeticl3 well done. Your target was close to mine however I am satisfied enough with where we are. It is the biggest year on year rise for many a year and I don't think we should forget that. Hopefully this time the share price is based on substance.

I am not going to hazard a guess for next year without seeing the trading update. The challenge as I see it, is can they scale the business up to a more rapid rate of growth, which has proved challenging so far.

[richjp] 30/12/2017 11:07

crazycanuck, I think the company's objectives will be more important than any sales person's target. There will no doubt be some sales person who needs an order to make a target. Some commission schemes pay a higher percentage for sales over a target so those people would no doubt also want to strike an extra deal before the year end. In either case though, I doubt if management would give any sales person the licence to negotiate unless it was felt to be beneficial to the company.

Having said that I think there is another factor that comes into play. If a sales cycle takes nine months or more, which is certainly the case with some of GHT's larger prospects, there is a natural process leading to the point where a decision is likely to be made, which is often the end of the business year. If for any reason the decision stalls, the momentum can be lost. The holidays come along, budgets might get reprioritised in January etc. The deal may then take several more months to close and in the worst case, may never happen at all. For that reason a supplier will do all it can, to close deals before the year end.

[jadeticl3] 30/12/2017 09:46

I am sad to have won the competition! At the time I thought it an ambitious target, but I would rather have been judged hopelessly pessimistic, with 4-10 the winner!

[gottafly] 30/12/2017 08:59

Very pleased to see a new Blog entry on the GHT site, this is the fourth entry for 2017 compared to 40 in 2016. This is an example of the lack of information flow from GHT, they are an industry pioneer/leader so should have more to say.

Anyway on December 20th we got a blog article from Rob Yeates - The State of Blockchain in 2018.

It is pretty technical stuff but the final paragraphs, reproduced below, explain how GHT/CTC can play a role in Blockchain. The importance of Blockchain, as I understand it, is as an implementation mechanism for Distributed Ledger Systems (DLT) where all parties in a transaction share a single view thus omitting reconciliation issues between each parties silo'd system, in theory and eventually it will make legacy silo systems a thing of the past.

It does seem that GHT are currently involved in a pilot and mentions the experience of CLC (Clareti Loan Control jv with Mountstreet) as valuable experience - some positive news in my view.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is everything in the blockchain garden rosy?

Of course, with new innovation, comes new challenges – and various issues are yet to be resolved. Scalability, rising transaction fees and structure as the industry grows are all serious concerns.

The DTCC’s view is that there is a requirement for a Central Authority to ensure effective standards and governance (despite decentralisation being one of the features that makes blockchain so appealing.)

Certainly, it’s this contradiction between blockchain’s collaborative ambition vs its potential to create further siloing that is proving one of its biggest challenges

This, and the need to operate concurrently alongside existing financial infrastructure for the foreseeable future.

Projects like the Coco framework promise a new level of interoperability and reconciliation between blockchains and legacy systems.

But technologies like CTC from Gresham will also be critical in bridging the DLT/ legacy infrastructure gap and maintaining data integrity between multiple sources of truth.

Built to accept, match and validate multiple data types from multiple sources (including older banking systems), CTC delivers the flexibility that blockchain demands.

Currently prototyping a reconciliation with an Ethereum blockchain on one side and a legacy SQL source on the other. For smart contracts, CTC can offer the ability to validate ahead of time before details are sent to regulators.

And with experience in the commercial loan servicing space, it is also well aligned with the Syndicated Loans work underway in the market.

For more on Gresham’s work in blockchain, see the Gresham Tech blog.

[gottafly] 30/12/2017 08:17

GHT share price 'guestimate game' of one year back.

The table below (thanks to 4-10) shows our predictions for the share price at the end of 2017, with a mid market price of 192.35p it would seem that jadeticl3 is the winner of our little competition.

160p Qantas
175p crazycanuck
199p jadeticl3
199.50p shytalk/gottafly
200p noble3r
200p richjp
207p inforprofit
210p luckymouse
260p double double
280p 4-10

Anyone brave enough, before the Jan 9th trading statement, to give it a shot?

[crazycanuck] 29/12/2017 19:16

Fair point. Do you think it could have been due to a sales persons target?