Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[double double] 29/8/2017 08:47

That link for RNS is last year 2016? But ok we can stretch back to last year but we are still missing one rns.

I was hoping for a more impact in the share price but still early and holiday time.

[valhamos] 29/8/2017 08:30

Announced on 28th December 2016:

[double double] 29/8/2017 08:15

Not separately for tier1 wins as this one. They are careful to point out some but not others. Others are tucked away in interims or finals for example.

[miti 1000] 29/8/2017 07:35

Inconsistent ...why ? The other 2 had rns's.

[double double] 29/8/2017 07:31

That rise i spoke about might get a little help now. Third tier 1 contract. I must have been asleep when others were announced. Inconsistant as ever or do they want the share price to rise. Afterall Kestral are back in.

[double double] 24/8/2017 11:01

I think you maybe onto something. It feels like last year around this time, there was a lot of this and Bloomberg called it "insider dealing". Of course the company shares all information with us along with institutions! But I dont mind if in a matter of months afterwards we are 60p higher again.

Technically we should be rising again soon but not by too much.

[gottafly] 23/8/2017 17:01

dd yes very interesting, I reckon that something is going on! No real new news and yet some big trades happening.

[double double] 23/8/2017 14:36

More shares changing hands 250k at 178p and 180p

[gottafly] 23/8/2017 10:57

Interesting share movements but Kestrel have only increased 130,000 and that still puts them 45,000 below where they were prior to the disposal RNS on 27th Feb - so they have sold 175k and bought 130k in the last month - this has resulted in two RNS announcements for dropping below and then rising above the 15% threshold.

So I can only guess this was a 'loan' of some shares which seems to indicate the market remains tight as regards large purchases i.e. no real willing sellers.

[double double] 23/8/2017 08:39

James Barstow has been selling down. Also Investec (Wealth & Investment Ltd) have been selling down. Both below 3% so no need for RNS. Investec (Hargreave Hale Ltd) holding steady and added 100k.

Kestrel, Majedie UK Equity Fund and Majedie UK Smaller Companies, JOHCM UK Growth Fund picking up shares. I think there should be an RNS for increase in holding by Majedie, they have gone from 5.6% at the year end to 6.3%.

Kestrel 10,136,259 +479,616 since year end accounts
Schroders 8,897,604
JO Hambro 6,324,406 -145,594 since year end accounts
Investec 5,421,749
Majedie 4,273,083 +520,096 since year end accounts
Marborough 3,504,109
Herald 3,183,774
Green 3,073,290
Grifiths 2,607,505
Artemis 2,361,757
Blevin 2,178,091
Purchase 2,001,678

[amt] 23/8/2017 07:28

Not necessarily the mm s may have been holding stock for a while.

[richjp] 22/8/2017 19:02

There are times when I do not mind admitting I was wrong and this is one of them.

Somebody had to be selling though.

[double double] 22/8/2017 15:37

Yes, I found it a bit amusing at the time.

Perhaps that planned acquisition fell through.

[miti 1000] 22/8/2017 15:31

So much for that . Kestrel have been increasing their stake.

[richjp] 17/8/2017 14:20

I would not be at all surprised if the large seller is Kestrel. They will have been sitting on some very healthy profits indeed, particularly from their older purchases. They sold for the first time ever as far as I recall in July and may now feel they are overweight in GHT.

As they no longer have a director on the GHT board they do not have to announce every trade as far as I know, only when they cross certain thresholds as they did in July when they went below 15%.

If it is Kestrel I think that is no cause for concern as long as some other institution(s) is picking them up which appears to be the case.

This could be one reason why GHT had their road show with a number of institutions, so that Kestrel's shares could be sold on in an orderly fashion.

[gottafly] 17/8/2017 11:35

Well spotted DD and the previous day (15th) at 17.15 two trades totalling 230,000 went through at 182.50.

It does look like some stake building is going on.

[double double] 17/8/2017 08:28

Possible large sells reported late yesterday

16:51:26 178 100,000 178,000
16:51:20 178 150,000 267,000
16:51:15 178 125,000 222,500
16:51:09 178 130,479 232,253

[gottafly] 14/8/2017 11:36

DD, yes still looking for the first newsletter from GHT so this still appears to e work in progress. I have pushed them to do something hence some suggestions as to what they could include. Sadly this is another indication that GHT still struggle with communications, time that their good intentions are acted upon.

[double double] 14/8/2017 10:47

We got told brokers know exactly what private investors know and there are strict rules the company follows, but at the same time we are trying to figure out what reasons may be behind the low forecasts for 2018 or even 2017. Something doesnt add up.

CTC revenue growth is key for me and I will simply wait for the results to follow through in due course. We know from results so far clients wins are up, revenues are up, cash held are up and the management are confident of the future. The share price is strong has been trading near or at 52 week high for a while now.

Gottafly if you are referring to the newsletter which I subscribed to on GHT website months ago... I have received nothing yet.

[gottafly] 13/8/2017 08:43

Thanks for your support guys but I think all comment on here, even when we disagree, is valuable. I am pretty sure that GHT monitor ADVFN closely and perhaps, dare I say it, we have a role to play in the information flow.

I have long been critical of their communications strategy but to be fair they operate in a market segment where confidentiality is the norm, so we never see the general 'customer noise' stories, all information has to be specifically and pro-actively released. Perhaps with this in mind it is easier to understand that GHT will play things safe and release the minimum required. I support the move away from announcing each new signing but we need some news flow to fill the vacuum.

For example, richjp in a recent post told us that GHT were on a four day presentation road show to institutional investors. From what I understand this was further extended to cover additional interested parties. So this road show/level of interest is apparently significantly above what it was last year and I believe this is newsworthy and is a missed communication opportunity. You don't get one-to-one meetings with institutions unless there is a story to tell.

We can speculate on here (and perhaps we should) what this proactive institutional marketing may mean for GHT especially as there does not seem to be any large sellers and therefore any institutional demand could not easily be satisfied. So are GHT preparing the ground for another acquisition, just a thought.

GHT apparently do quarterly staff briefings and I have suggested that perhaps a sanitised version (very helpful for us PI's) could be released on the website. I would not expect there to be any numerical/statistical information but such things as staff morale, development progress, customer satisfaction levels etc. would make an interesting read and help fill the communication void.

[miti 1000] 12/8/2017 12:03

Thanks, Gottafly , one of the best posts I have read on this board.

[jadeticl3] 10/8/2017 17:07

Very incisive article, Gottafly.
Much has been said on this site on this issue, and you have highlighted your points well.

I am sure that we all hope your conclusion is correct and that Management will prove N1 Singer far too conservative.

[gottafly] 10/8/2017 12:53

Gresham performance verses forecasts.

A little while back I wrote to the company saying that I felt there was a potential false market due to the disconnect of the 2018 forecast and the latest half year numbers & management confidence.

Whilst I have been critical on here as regards their communication strategy, GHT were pretty quick to respond. GHT confirmed that if there were a material change to market expectations they would be obliged to announce it. So from this you can assume that the 2017 and 2018 forecast numbers are perceived to be fair and reasonable from a management point of view although, of course, they are broker and not company forecasts.

The 2018 numbers, which have been debated on here and are generally thought of as 'suspect', is the area of concern since the forecast predicts a significant slow down in overall revenue (up 7.5% compared with 16.2% for 2017) and in CTC growth (up 16% compared with up 48% for 2017). So this raises two questions, why the drop in overall revenue growth and why the slow down in CTC growth.


Legacy/Non CTC Revenues


GHT, in their segment analysis divide revenue into CTC and Legacy, GHT further split Legacy into Solutions/Contracting. The most recent segmentation figures would appear to support the GHT statement that the legacy revenue mix has changed.

The Contracting revenues are I believe to support a single long standing customer and the GHT report shows that this (low margin) revenue has increased quite significantly (2764k for the whole of 2016 but 2263k for the first six months of 2017).

If we assume that there is no real difference in revenue profile for contracting revenues in each half year but a continued (20% decline?) in Solutions revenue then we get the following result:-

Solutions Contracting Total Other

2015 7070 2502 9572

2016 6901 2764 9665

2017 4984 4526 9510 verses a broker forecast of 8900!

So it is pretty clear that other/legacy revenues are being marked significantly down but that the contracting piece is expanding to mitigate the drop. Contracting revenues of course can end very rapidly and it does seem that the Solutions recurring revenues are dropping off relatively fast, although it should be noted that there are three separate legacy revenue streams. Further, in the 2018 forecast, these only drop another £300k so this apparent step change is happening in 2017 and not 2018!

Legacy revenues were never going to be long-term (although they seem to outlast their predicted decline) and they are not the future of GHT. This decline happening in 2017 so it makes the 2017 performance pretty remarkable!!!

CTC 2018 Growth of 16%

GHT were kind enough to share with me the N1Singer interim note.

The key point is the expected growth in CTC year-on-year revenues:-

2015 53%

2016 41%

2017 48%

2016 16%.

This drop in growth, is for us shareholders, hugely disappointing. Unless there is a specific reason like market saturation, development costs/timescales or whatever then the drop from 48% to 16% seems overdone and very conservative. A 'drop' to a mere 30% growth rate would add another £1.5 million to turnover, so why the pessimism?

The actual note itself is very positive and supportive of the management team and GHT prospects. It references the Clareti platform as best in class, that current CTC revenues do not reflect the size of the market opportunity, that there is opportunity for strong sustainable growth and GHT is nowhere near delivering their full potential. The words seem to indicate a strong buy yet the forecast (for 2018) would say otherwise.

As always DYOR but the only conclusion I can come to is that N1Singer, at least in the short-term, are concerned that GHT do not have the resources to fully exploit the available market opportunity and that the sales run rate will be largely governed by the ability to deploy/implement new sales/clients.

In this regard the cloud based offering and SaaS is hugely helpful and as I understand it CTC is relatively easy to implement (I suspect C24 is pretty helpful here). However, on a SaaS model you don't get revenue unless the customer is live/operational, there are no upfront licence fees to cushion things. Scaling up is never easy, especially since maintaining quality is essential - unhappy clients is a big No.

Also, since GHT are now directly targeting incumbent supplier solutions then you can expect a tougher and more difficult sales cycle, the wins might e bigger but they will take more time.

As I say, DYOR, but I get the feeling that the GHT management team might just prove N1Singer wrong, e shall see and as DD says patience is needed. Challenger to Champion 2017 is what GHT is aiming for.

[double double] 09/8/2017 14:46

Ok

Lots of trade going through at 180p but not moving the price down. We seem to have this/similar every 10p or so up. Obviously there will be very long term holders who are probably relieved at the current price and taking profits, but equally we know from here new investors also coming in.