Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[andrewbaker] 11/9/2017 10:31

Well I've topped up at £5.50; and gonna go off and do something else now. The economy is bad and going to get worse as Brexit costs hit, one way and another; but Greene King will not go bust, will not fall much further (especially after the panic selling has finished), and people will still buy booze, food and accommodation. And if it is less to be shared around, GNK are well placed to get their share. Enjoy!

[philanderer] 11/9/2017 09:12

Morning EI .


Nope wallets tightly shut ;-)

edit:

With an unchanged dividend the yield is bang on 6% now.

[essentialinvestor] 11/9/2017 09:01

Not one director buy post update, unless I missed it.

Referenced the lack of BOD buys during the decline previously

[philanderer] 11/9/2017 08:47

Downgrade by Beaufort ... BUY to HOLD


Barclays 'overweight' retains

Numis ' hold ' tp 595p

JP Morgan ' neutral' tp 650p cut from 750p

[right honorable lord lucan] 11/9/2017 08:47

This is incredible. Anyone would think this company is going bust.

[philanderer] 11/9/2017 08:45

Not even a dcb

[jotoha2] 10/9/2017 13:48

racg , you keep buying , that is your right to invest where you see fit, as for myself have been short since 730p and will continue till I hit my target price ! This company is certainly well run , but not for it's employees , let me give you an example , graduate schemes which start around £18,000 pa and the poor blighters have to sign to agree to work beyond the statutory hours per week , 80/90 hours per week is not unusual , that equates to £4.07 per hour , good it is not !!!

[eeza] 10/9/2017 11:04

@dividendwealth

You may be interested in this website - lists all the divis and the repective times since a cut. Lots of divi info also. You can d/load the new S/sheet at the start of each month.





Edit
D/load s/sheet, select 'Challengers' tab at bottom of page & scroll down to line 36. Gives full divi history going back to 2001.

[dividendwealth] 10/9/2017 11:00

Intersting snippet here (from 2015 so a bit out of date) with useful info about the dividend.

hxxp://www.damiancannon.com/blog/a-high-yield-portfolio-constructed-part-2/

This is all pretty good but what really seals it for me is that Greene King hasn't cut its dividend since 1997 (the limits of my data source) and has instead increased its distribution every single year since then. This demonstrates remarkable consistency, and dedication to the cause of shareholder returns, but also the benefit of checking primary accounts when examining companies.

The reason for mentioning this is that the web site I'm using here, which is Investorease, suggests that the company cut its dividend at least twice (in 2006 and 2010). However from checking the accounts I know that the first 'cut' was due to a 2-for-1 share split doubling the number of shares and the second 'cut' arose from adjusting for the rights issue carried out in 2009 to reduce debt. So far from being a serial dividend-disappointer Greene King is a solid company with slightly more gearing than I'd like (at 153%).

[racg] 09/9/2017 18:40

Obviously, I am sitting on a loss though,:) - but at these levels I m happy to stay invested or increase. So yah boo to you Joto.

[jotoha2] 09/9/2017 17:13

Bad mouthing , are you being serious , just think of all those poor employees on saye schemes who have just lost a large portion of their share value , change at the top required here .

[jotoha2] 09/9/2017 17:02

racg , if you did a bit of research then you might not be sitting on a big loss now !

[racg] 09/9/2017 16:28

Good. I hope they make you redundant for a start. Malcontents anonymously bad mouthing responsible employers, not good karma.

[jotoha2] 09/9/2017 14:56

You have it in one suetballs, also middle managers have been told to screw wages down by any means possible , of course leaving the senior nobs in comfy land for the time being , £3.50 target still in place.

[suetballs] 09/9/2017 13:33

I will be selling my gnk on Monday at a 30% plus loss.
The order of life has changed!?
I have always generally been a "holder for life" but things have moved on!!! Ok still believe in dge ulvr and rb etc and the banks when interest rates rise but this is different territory.
Recently sold ted and bought boo and g4m - good move? asos now looking aggressive in cosmetics! Abf is well ok because it is cheap and understands what has happened since the GFC.
This is a different world we face today and we have to adjust-the internet is great and I am a big fan of India and China.
My local gnk pub is run down the loos smell and drugs are rife - all a bit of a struggle.
Good investing my friends - there is a new order.
Suet

[philanderer] 08/9/2017 23:54

Mail market report...


"....Greene King said it was able to offset some of the decline by cutting costs by £45m so far this year, and is strengthening its customer offering by improving food quality across its pubs.

"But with the likes of Fuller, Smith & Turner and Revolution Bars also complaining of a tough trading environment in recent months, Deutsche Bank said Greene King should be cashing in on the weakness of its peers.

'We believe Greene King is relatively better positioned than its peers, given the strong balance sheet and cash flow,' the broker said in a 'buy' note.

Regardless, Greene King's decline sent shockwaves across the UK pub and bar sector, with brewer Marston's falling 8.5 per cent, or 9.7p, to 103.8p and Wetherspoon tumbling 5.7 per cent, or 59.5p, to 992.5p.

[philanderer] 08/9/2017 21:47

Market report:

Shore Capital analyst Greg Johnson said it was a struggle to see any let-up in the pressure on earnings for the pub sector.

'We see the key for Greene King and the sector will be improving real incomes across the UK economy which are likely to remain squeezed for the remainder of the current calender year and so see little encouragement for the shares on an earnings perspective,' he said.

On the Alternative Investment Market, shares in Safestyle (SFES) fell even further, dropping 29.2% to 166.5p as the double glazing group issued a profit warning, flagging 'accelerating weakness in the market resulting from increasing customer caution'.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said the warnings from both Greene King and Safestyle would add to concerns over the health of the UK consumer.

'It is always tempting to dismisses one company profit warning, or even two or three, as down to "company-specific" problems and Greene King is doing its best to blame the rotten weather,' he said.

'But Safestyle remains convinced that it is still taking market share so this one is harder to explain away and it may be more than a coincidence that two firms which rely heavily on consumer spending have both released weak updates today.

'Add to this picture an ongoing slide in UK car sales and it requires little imagination to build a picture where weak wage growth and lofty levels of credit card debt are combining to depress consumer spending and confidence, to the potential detriment of growth across the wider UK economy.'

[philanderer] 08/9/2017 17:25

I`d like to see some serious director buys before adding any more.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2017 17:20

Is that twice covered when maintenance CAPEX is factored in?,
don't think it is from memory.

[andrewbaker] 08/9/2017 17:16

bend1pa,

Sub 500p. means you're looking at a PE around 7, with a twice covered 5% dividend. And even with everyone looking for the market to tank, that level would be a screaming buy. And then consider the capital gain too, as business got back to normal, costs got pared, people got drunk ... lol.

This is September, with everyone getting back behind their desks, looking for something to do to show that they've been missed. Hey, ho: I'm gonna buy even more if the price dares to go any lower. :)

[bend1pa] 08/9/2017 15:46

Have GNK finally lost the plot after decades of proving resilience in the face of stormy economic weather? It's been known for a long time that the pub sector is in serious decline. But if GNK can't hold their own any longer, then either their management have finally lost it, or the sector's in even bigger trouble than at first thought.

AndrewBaker - I'd be a bit more cautious if I were you. This looks like it's going a lot lower - like sub 500 before long.

[tlobs2] 08/9/2017 15:43

So then, a modest 1.2% drop in sales ......hardly justifies a slump in share price of 14%.

[buywell3] 08/9/2017 15:13

Too many cooks and pubs chasing the customers

Margins getting squeezed to next to wafer thin

Wetherspoon's is also finding it hard

They will cut margins even further to keep a full pub

Can others do the same ?

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2017 15:07

Phil, thought the very same on reading that huge TP change.
If that was their target price before today perhaps it would merit more attention.