Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 03/5/2018 10:02

Greencoat might want to pull the trigger on another IPO if the price firms much more. But the time to worry is probably north of 126. They certainly intended September 17's announcement to be tranche one of two.

125.6 was the trigger last time and sent the price to around 116. That in itself should be enough to put them off. Also doesn't look great if they try and pull another if the share price is below their last effort.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 14:28

A000587..I'm looking at the cash drag from a purely statistical point of view on website stats as opposed to having any real impact on the business. Whether or not Greencoat had raised 350 million at the end of the year made little difference to the bottom line profit for 2017 but instead of basing profit on a Market cap of 900 million it now has to stand the unflattering comparison of a market cap of 1250 million that it did not have access to. Ok I am no expert on whether such issuance is adjusted for or not in p/e ratios...maybe I am under a misapprehension here? Because investors look at stats.

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:28

Hi Spin Doctor, I agree with you - to a certain extent.

What I am trying to bottom is the way they all use different discount rates and/or WACC - which have a very telling affect on the NAV. Afraid it needs a better brain than mine to work it out.

My preferred green infrastructure fund is actually FSFL and there is a very interesting explanation of what their manager is doing to improve the income from the assets in their latest report and also what effect a change in the discount rate has on the NAV - worth a read

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:17

It would seem that they only have one loan as follows

"In September 2016 the Company secured an 18 year, fully amortising finance facility of £187m (at a fixed rate of 2.875% on £121.5m and 0.7% over RPI on £65.5m) from Aviva Investors."

"During the period principal repayments of £6.9m, combined with indexation increases of £2.8m, resulted in a total outstanding balance to Aviva Investors as at 31 December 2017 of £180.2m (Fixed £115.3m, Index linked, £64.9m)."

If they do not buy more assets with any money they raise from here on - they will have cash drag though.

[spin doctor] 27/2/2018 11:21

Looks to me that the greater IRR of UKW justifies the premium. Very low and falling charges. Commitment to dividend growth in.line with inflation, which the competitors with lower dividend cover and higher charges cannot match.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 09:52

Thanks for that A000257. Would still be an income drag on the price to earnings off the final market cap when they have raised the cash towards the end of their financial year if nothing other than saving on debt interest next year.

Does highlight the fact that Greencoat still have 200 million shares to raise, can see them making a move as soon as the shares (or if) they go north of 125-127. A bit of a nuisance.

[a0002577] 26/2/2018 17:00

Hi Stewart64

This is from their report - showing no cash drag

"In order to finance our continuing growth through pursuing further attractive investment opportunities, in September we announced a Share Issuance Programme to issue up to 500 million new shares over a 12 month period. Under this programme, in October we issued 290.6 million new shares at an issue price of 117 pence per share, raising gross issue proceeds of £340 million in an oversubscribed fund raising. Net issue proceeds of £335 million were applied to repay short term borrowings. The issue was NAV accretive (after issue costs) by 1.7 pence per share."

[a0002577] 26/2/2018 11:32

Results published today.

Highlights:

~ Market capitalisation : £1,263.0 million
~ Share price : 122.8 pence
~ Dividends with respect to the year : £57.3 million
~ Dividends with respect to the year per share 6.49 pence
~ GAV £1,409.0 million
~ NAV : £1,144.0 million
~ NAV per share : 111.2 pence
~ NAV growth per share (adjusting for dividends) : 2.6 pence
~ Total return (NAV) : 8.5 per cent.
~ TSR : 8.4 per cent.

Forward Dividend : 6.76 pence : Forward Yield therefore 5.60% : Forward TER also reducing.

The increase in NAV seams to be down to the change in the discount rate used. There is a good table setting out how changes in NAV are affected by various factors (including the discount rate)

but it seems solid with a commitment to RPI dividend increases. However, I cannot see the attraction over TRIG and FSFL or even JLEN. All of which have higher yields and smaller premiums to NAV. There are also some 'infrastructure' VCTs which yield more - tax free to boot.

What am I missing?

[stewart64] 26/1/2018 05:59

Energy security in the news today regarding Russia's potential to disrupt Continental supplies. We could easily be self sufficient on renewables but at the moment you wouldn't have a cat in hell's chance of raising the IPO capital needed with Comrade Corbyn and McDonnel in the background. Infrastructure shares on a downer currently.

[stewart64] 03/1/2018 13:12

Hargreaves was not executing any buys until the last hour or so this week for Greencoat because of an oversight on documentation. The price headed north anyway.

[morgoth1] 02/11/2017 09:29

I got all i applied for im with Hargreaves Lansdown.

[pj fozzie] 31/10/2017 10:11

Who has received notification of their allocation? Anyone scaled back or did you get the full number you applied for? Which broker are you with? I'm with Interactive Investor and have heard nothing so far.

Cheers,
PJ

[morgoth1] 27/10/2017 09:31

Looks like i got all the shares i applied for at £1.17.
IMHO they will scale back the institutions.

[stewart64] 27/10/2017 09:24

Share issuance of 290 million with receipts of 340 million. A success and oversubscribed according to their website of 25th October 2017.

[stewart64] 25/10/2017 11:06

Shares falling quite sharply today. Any idea when the share allocation and details of the capital raise is known? Wondered if the fall might have had something to do with the new share issuance today, but probably more to do with the good GDP data. I thought the November rate rise was a banker anyway.

Meanwhile, the good GDP data must be a major blow for the Remain ultras who were hoping for a bit of gloom mongering today, led by Philip Hammond naturally.

[stewart64] 13/10/2017 12:40

Ah right the shares get credited on 27 Oct so will attach the next dividend. Thanks...never read my HL emails.

[morgoth1] 13/10/2017 11:34

IM with Hargreves Lansdown had a message yesterday i can apply for shares minimum of £1000 no max mentioned then i have to wait to see how many i get.
It will all depend of the take up of new shares.

[rustle2] 13/10/2017 10:40

Does anyone know who are introducing for PIs for the latest offer or can we only do it directly with Greencoat using the forms on the Prospectus?

[gateside] 11/10/2017 23:59

With the NAV down at 109p - I too am finding this share difficult, to know where the share price should be right now. Looking to buy - but will monitor price for now.

[stewart64] 11/10/2017 15:31

A far too big a dilution in one go imo going from a one billion market cap to one point five. Totally impossible to price this share now, nobody knows where the NAV will end up or the eventual earnings. Just have to batten down the hatches and hope it will come right sometime next summer. (as it did last year)

[gateside] 11/10/2017 15:23

Looks like it wants to test 117p after all!

[stewart64] 11/10/2017 15:23

Well the share price is getting dangerously close to the offer price of the new issuance. Probably not the best time to go Empire building with interest rates set to rise and UK stocks coming under pressure from Brexit, the Management have managed to crash the share price by over 6%. One hopes 117 will be a floor, at which point the issuance would flounder too.

[rustle2] 29/9/2017 08:14

Thanks Stewart for the explanation. I knew that I was missing something and also that the market would have priced it right! At least they are offering above NAV and I wouldn't say no to topping up at 117.