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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greatland Gold Plc | GGP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.88% | 6.90 | 16:35:26 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.95 | 6.75 | 7.05 | 6.90 | 6.84 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/11/2024 08:12 by mirabeau 22nd November 2024Exploring Greatland Gold: Opportunities and Risks for Retail Investors Greatland Gold plc stands on the brink of a transformative moment in its journey from an exploration-focused small-cap to a major Australian gold and copper producer. At the heart of this transition is the company’s ambitious plan to consolidate ownership of the Havieron gold-copper project and the nearby Telfer mine, two cornerstone assets located in Western Australia’s resource-rich Paterson Province. For investors, Greatland offers a compelling mix of opportunity and uncertainty, making it a company worth watching—and carefully considering. Havieron and Telfer: Cornerstones of Growth Discovered in 2018, the Havieron project has emerged as a world-class underground gold-copper deposit. Boasting 8.4Moz gold equivalent resources as of December 2023, Havieron represents a rare find in an increasingly competitive global mining sector. Its proximity to the Telfer processing plant, just 45km away, creates synergies that significantly reduce development costs and operational risks. Greatland’s move to consolidate 100% ownership of Havieron and acquire the Telfer mine from Newmont Corporation is pivotal. Scheduled for completion by late 2024, this acquisition not only brings existing production and cash flow from Telfer but also secures the infrastructure needed to bring Havieron into full-scale production. The acquisition positions Greatland as a vertically integrated operator, capable of leveraging Telfer’s processing facilities while avoiding the capital outlay of building new infrastructure from scratch. This strategic advantage could accelerate Havieron’s timeline to profitability, a major milestone expected in 2025. Exploration and Broader Ambitions While Havieron and Telfer form the backbone of Greatland’s immediate growth, its ambitions stretch far beyond these flagship assets. The company holds an extensive exploration portfolio spanning 4,500km², with notable projects such as Paterson South (in partnership with Rio Tinto), the Juri JV, and Scallywag. This exploration strategy reflects Greatland’s long-term goal of becoming a multi-mine resources company, with a diversified portfolio of precious and base metals. Partnerships with major players like Rio Tinto and Newmont enhance its access to advanced geological data and exploration expertise, bolstering its ability to unlock new mineral resources in underexplored regions. Financial Strength and Execution Risk Financially, Greatland has demonstrated an ability to secure substantial funding, raising US$325 million through an equity placement earlier this year. This capital injection ensures the company can finance the Havieron-Telfer acquisition and fund ongoing development without immediate liquidity concerns. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 82% raises some red flags, particularly for risk-averse retail investors. While manageable in the context of expected future cash flows, this level of leverage introduces sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity prices and operational disruptions. The integration of Telfer’s operations and workforce adds another layer of complexity. Successfully managing this transition, alongside the development of Havieron, will require seamless execution. Any delays in dewatering challenges at Havieron, further regulatory hurdles, or operational missteps could erode investor confidence and impact near-term stock performance. Risks for Investors For retail investors, Greatland’s journey presents both exciting opportunities and notable risks. The company’s reliance on high commodity prices—particu Shareholder dilution is another factor to consider. Recent equity raises have significantly increased the company’s share count, potentially diluting future gains for existing investors. Although these funds are being put to strategic use, dilution remains a downside for those looking at short-term returns. The Case for Optimism Despite these risks, Greatland’s prospects are undeniably compelling. The Havieron deposit’s exceptional grades and scalability, combined with the Telfer mine’s near-term cash flow, create a strong foundation for growth. Moreover, Greatland’s leadership team has a proven track record of executing large-scale projects, and its collaborative approach with partners like Newmont and Rio Tinto enhances its credibility. The potential for significant shareholder returns lies in Greatland’s ability to deliver on its vision of becoming a multi-mine operator. If the company can integrate its assets, manage debt effectively, and achieve its exploration goals, it could emerge as one of Australia’s leading mid-tier miners. A Balanced Perspective For retail investors, Greatland Gold is a classic high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The company’s transformative strategy and high-quality assets position it for substantial upside, particularly as it nears profitability. However, the risks—ranging from commodity price fluctuations to operational challenges—sho In a market where few small-cap miners boast the same combination of flagship assets and exploration upside, Greatland offers an intriguing case. As with any investment, due diligence is key, and investors should weigh the company’s strengths against the inherent uncertainties of the mining sector. For those willing to embrace the volatility, Greatland could offer a golden opportunity. |
Posted at 20/11/2024 15:01 by hydrogen1 Garbage Toast. Total Garbage.The only people listening to Bamps and his Telfer pub talk are investors - mostly LTH - who have been in this stock for years. They are simply trying to better understand what Telfer is and the future. We appreciate the respect: However I can assure all readers, these are investors and they don't go dropping 1m a pop buy trades, or sell trades on the back is his Telfer 'pub talk'. The market maker's moves are controlled by their requirements: to fill the huge circa $10m buy order on the book from GDXJ |
Posted at 24/10/2024 15:45 by hazl Kepler Trust Intelligence writing for GPM state generally on the gold market .....'We think gold can have an important role to play in a portfolio as a hedge against geopolitical risks. These are currently high and show no signs of abating: the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China have created a tense atmosphere in which having a tail risk hedge seems wise. We also think there is a multi-year de-dollarisation process underway which is likely to lead to gold being more important for many sovereigns, central banks, and institutional investors. It may not be that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, but at the least it is clear that central banks are deemphasising their dollar assets, while China in particular, the US’ largest creditor, is keen to lessen its exposure and increase its financial independence. In the short term, the signs also look good: US interest rate cuts should be good for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset (which typically takes the place of cash or cash-like investments). Investors could buy gold itself. However, gold is at all-time highs, so we think there has to be a risk that investors have positioned themselves for falling rates and therefore in the short term the market might pull back when the cuts finally come. Miners, on the other hand, remain exceptionally cheap versus their own history and their typical trading range versus gold. They therefore offer a form of insurance that looks cheap just as it is likely to be needed. As a measure of Rob and Keith’s own conviction in gold miners, we note they are substantially overweight the sector in their diversified commodity fund, CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income (CYN).' DYOR |
Posted at 24/10/2024 11:36 by lurker5 For one thing, investors won't pay anything for estimated income more than 10 years ahead. (you can check by running NPvs and PERs for normal solid stockmarket companies) For another mining NPVs are for the project, not for the income investors will see which after company costs and exploration is often well short of what the project produces. And lastly its not the company's cost of capital that is relevant. It is the return investors want on their shares, which for mines is always well above the sort of discounts a company uses to evaluate a project. Brokers always use the conpany's project NPV because it inflates the value they pretend buyers will get and hardly ever do. In practice a share price always tracks either the dividend or the cash flow and won't anticipate it in the form of a nPV based 'target'. When thought about the concept of a 'target' is nonsense. Most brokers analysts are lazy and don't do the dificult work of projecting detailed cash flows. |
Posted at 24/10/2024 07:53 by lurker5 Kiddies fantasising about PER for GGP should note 1) Newmont currently about 10 times gross cash flow and 2) about 8 times earnings. Newmont can be expected to deliver over many, many years which is why investors rate it on an ongoing PER basis. GGP only has 20 years if lucky, so investors will rate on cash flow or a part of future NPV. Among reasons why NPV inappropriate to value anything is that it runs out year by year. So what does that do to a share price ? Doh ! as Dim would say if he understood. |
Posted at 18/10/2024 17:49 by hydrogen1 Total garbage John. I post and report publicly available information. My friends occasionally send me extremely useful and relevant (but not so freely available information, to PIs such as Bloomberg terminal prints). What I can see here is a lot of new specialist gold funds and savvy industrial investors like Wyloo, Tembo Jupiter Gold and Silver Franklin Gold fund, Legal and General backing SD and GGP to the tune of 100s of millions of pounds. Not 10m or 50m - 100s of millions. Price has been put here to shake out the private investors and allow industrial investors in. I believe you are probably part of that operation, although I don't know who controls it. But sure as dam it's been controlled and managed by someone... the share register is now littered with the biggest names in the gold business: |
Posted at 17/10/2024 22:56 by totally banjo Exciting times ahead for investors in Greatland Gold?By John Foster 17th October 2024 Greatland Gold LON:GGP, the AIM-listed mining development and exploration company with a focus on precious and base metals announced earlier this week that it agreed to acquire the remaining 70% of its joint venture Havieron gold/copper project. This comes after entering into a binding agreement with subsidiaries of Newmont Corporation NYSE:NEM, the Colorado-based, multinational gold miner. Greatland, which operates primarily in Western Australia, also confirmed it had fully-acquired the Telfer gold/copper mine, part of the Havieron complex, as well as other associated properties and assets in the Paterson region. The well-followed gold mining and exploration company said the acquisition was still subject to a few approvals. But these have now been mostly passed, including gaining approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board. Greatland has been granted approval from Australia’s FIRB, whilst Newmont has submitted its own approval application which remains pending. Greatland’s management also said that it had gained consent from Western Australia’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum for the transfer of the relevant tenements associated with the acquisition. The environmental licence for Telfer Part V has also been renewed for another 10 years. Shareholders ‘overwhelmingl Greatland’s many shareholders were also happy with the acquisition, in the company’s words voting: “overwhelmingl The company agreed to acquire the assets for a total consideration and debt repayment of up to USD475m (GBP363m) before adjustments, comprising USD207.5m in cash, including USD155.1m acquisition consideration subject to certain adjustments, and a USD52.4m repayment of the outstanding Havieron joint venture loan; USD167.5m in Greatland shares issued to Newmont and up to USD100m in deferred cash considerations. Greatland’s is the Number Two gold project in Australia Havieron, Greatland believes, is a world class gold-copper project with a mineral resource of 8.4 million ounces (Moz) of gold. This would make it the second-largest gold project in Australia. An independent review of the base case scenario estimates a 2.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) mining operation. Average annual production would be 258,000 oz of gold at a lowest quartile all-in sustaining cost (AISC) globally of USD818/oz in steady state (the first 15 years), with a 20-year total life-of-mine (LOM). The base case scenario includes a 15-month initial Telfer mine plan. It estimates production of 426,000oz gold at an AISC of USD1,454/oz from the restart of processing operations at Telfer. The mine went back into operations on 26th September. The company believes Telfer has the potential to generate significant near-term cash flow once the acquisition is completed. In parallel, Greatland said that several additional potential Telfer ore sources have already been drill-tested. These will be assessed with a view to extending the current Telfer LOM. New CFO has a baptism of fire Greatland’s newly appointed CFO, Dean Horton, is an Australian executive with experience in corporate financing, especially project finance and debt-funding. He has had a busy time since he joined the miner in July. The company had to deal with a media leak of the financial structuring of the acquisition. The leak led to a suspension of trading on AIM on 9th September, for two days, until it had announced the successful USD325m institutional placement of new shares on AIM to part-fund the acquisition. This was followed-up with a separate retail placing of GBP6.7m. Horton has also been involved in structuring the debt funding for Havieron. He proposed a AUD650m (GBP333.4m) seven-year term loan to fund the cost of construction and development of Havieron; a five-year Revolving Credit Facility of AUD100m to pay for operational costs at Havieron and a five-year AUD25m contingency facility to cover guarantees to banks and contractors. Greatland opened trading on 15th October at 6.1849p, 6.63% ahead of where it was last year but down 35.5% year-to-date. The company’s shares have ranged between 4.95p and 11.7p over a 52-week period and Greatland’s market cap is GBP645.4m. It seems that it could be exciting times ahead for investors in Greatland Gold. hxxps://www.thearmch |
Posted at 20/9/2024 22:09 by hydrogen1 Investors Chronicle like the deal a lot:NEWS Greatland Gold aims for greatness with $475mn deal A detailed look at the deal that sees Australian gold hopeful turn the tables with the backing of mining magnate Greatland Gold aims for greatness with $475mn deal Published on September 13, 2024 by Alex Hamer Greatland Gold (GGP) will go from part-owner of a development project to a significant gold miner in one fell swoop by the end of 2024, when its $475mn (£362mn) deal with Newmont (US:NEM) is done. This will give London another mid-size operator just when Centamin (CEY) is leaving the exchange. Greatland is buying 100 per cent of the Telfer mine and the remaining 70 per cent of the Havieron mine it does not own from Newmont. To get there, existing investors are looking at serious dilution, with the $325mn equity portion of the deal done at 4.8p, a 30 per cent discount to the untouched price and a long way from the 11p the shares traded at near the end of 2023. Greatland will also issue $167.45mn worth of shares to Newmont, with a 12-month lock-in, and a retail raise that closed on Thursday contributed £6.7mn to the pot. Of the $325mn raised, $207.5mn will go to paying Newmont, including a $55mn debt repayment, and the rest will go to working capital ($73mn), transaction costs and group debt. Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, bought the former Havieron joint venture partner Newcrest Mining last year and quickly decided it did not need Telfer on the books, opening the opportunity for Greatland and its first right of refusal on the stake. A leak to the Australian Financial Review last weekend outlined broad details of the agreement and actually sent the shares up on Monday morning before they were suspended, which is rare when a major capital raise is on the way. Read more from Investors' Chronicle Which supercar maker comes up top trumps? IC’s Top 50 Funds: the best ones to buy Private Investor's Diary: Swapping the North Sea for copper What investors can do with takeover cash: Lee and the IC Buying Telfer alongside the majority Havieron stake is critical as that is where the gold ore will be processed. Telfer's pits are running low on gold, hence Newcrest backing the development of Havieron 45km down the road. The scope of this deal can be likened to Endeavour Mining (EDV) rolling up West African companies with shares and debt, which it cleared in just a few years thanks to a helpful gold price. The difference between the two is the short life of Telfer in the current business case, and the need to get Havieron to production. This involves building out an underground mine but no processing plant, as the Telfer plant will be used. Greatland chief executive Shaun Day said this type of deal drove Northern Star (AU:NST), where he was CFO, to its current status as Australia’s top gold miner with an AUS$18bn (£9.2bn) market capitalisation. “What you get in these kinds of transactions with majors is tremendous infrastructure and assets that have a tremendous mineral endowment,” he said. “You have the ability to provide a focus on these assets that couldn't attract capital in the portfolio of a major.” But the focus will be getting Havieron into production. This will take a serious amount of capital expenditure, and to this end, Greatland has lined up a non-binding letter of support from banks for AUS$775mn in debt to fund the mine build. Before the deal, a group of banks had agreed to lend AUS$220mn to fund the company’s share of the Havieron deal. Now, Telfer will also provide cash flow in the meantime – production for the next 15 months is forecast at 425,000 ounces (oz) of gold equivalent, at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,454 an oz. At current prices of just over $2,500 an oz, that leaves over $425mn before taxes, royalties and financing costs. Even at $2,000 an oz, it’s still significant cash flow. The main development headache is getting the tailings dam (a structure used to contain mining waste) right at Telfer. There was a leak at the mine earlier this year that led to processing being suspended, and Newmont has to get this fixed before the deal can complete. Day said Newmont restarted processing and adding waste to the tailings dam two weeks ago. “We're really comfortable that will be resolved in good order,” he added. The ongoing feasibility study also means existing estimates around costs could shift. Australia has always been an expensive place to do business, largely because of labour costs, but these surged in recent years due to general inflation and high demand for workers. Day said a slowdown in the lithium and nickel sectors would help with worker availability and flagged recent stats that showed wage inflation had slowed to 0.04 per cent between the March and June quarters, compared to 4 per cent across 2023. Another Havieron study is currently in the works and will be finished by the end of next year. Current forecasts see annual production of 258,000 oz of gold equivalent (including some copper output) at an all-in sustaining cost of $818 an oz, with an initial build cost of $542mn. Read more on commodities Australia bound London has real abandonment issues at the moment. They may remain with Greatland’s evolution. The company is effectively run from Perth, with a board full of high-flyers from Australian success stories Northern Star and Fortescue Mining Group (AU:FMG). Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest is an investor through his Wyloo Metals venture, which will maintain its existing 8 per cent stake through a $100mn contribution to the equity raise. Accordingly, a secondary ASX listing is in the works and expected to be completed within six months. Day told Investors’ Chronicle that further listing changes were up in the air, partly thanks to recent reforms to the London listing rules. “The combination of the premium and and the standard listing [is a positive] reform that would encourage us to consider [shifting from Aim to the main market],” he said. “I think it's good that they're thinking about how to reform and modernise the LSE.” Day said institutional support for the capital raise had been “global” We have been sceptical in the past of Greatland's valuation, especially when it hit a market cap of £1bn off the back of the 30 per cent stake in Havieron. But if this deal is done without hiccups, a valuation that size and beyond is reasonable. The equity raise will double the share count, but the increased exposure to cash flow more than makes up for it. Who are all these Aussies? Shaun Day - former CFO at Northern Star, Australia’s biggest gold miner Dean Horton - Greatland CFO, former head of project finance at National Australia Bank Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest - mining magnate, who turned Fortescue into a significant iron ore miner. Has invested in Greatland through Wyloo Metals Elizabeth Gaines - Greatland board member, former chief executive of Fortescue |
Posted at 19/9/2024 15:44 by sellhighandbuylow Callum knows absolutely NOTHING and Millstone Investor knows even less==================== MillennialInvestor 6 Apr '21 - 48002 of 103144 - BooHoo - let's try again lol - BOO "Ok. Yes you guys were right and yes I am a loser, and yes I should have sold Boohoo" ==================== ==================== MillennialInvestor 5 Jul '21 - 54117 of 103144 - BooHoo - let's try again lol - BOO "One thing to note is, I have been struggling with liquidity ==================== ==================== MillennialInvestor 2 Jul '21 - 54019 of 103144 - BooHoo - let's try again lol - BOO "I'm only here to annoy everybody and wind you all up" ==================== |
Posted at 10/9/2024 18:49 by lurker5 So. From a quick look (maybe its there buried somwehere) it seems we don't have a proper feasibility study - needed in order to work out year by year cash flow, which is the only basis on which the market will value the shares. Instead we have a 'range' of 'valuations' as of now to buy the projects. ie totlly useless for investors to project earnings or dividends or cash fow per share ! So, after institutions load up on theinitial offer, you won't get follow on investors for a long time until production is very near. As I said would be the case. Dear oh Dear ! |
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