Green Reit Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 05/6/2017 12:16

Added some last week,if I get a 3% yield and 5% capital appreciation I'll be happy enough.

[wexboy] 29/12/2016 04:46

2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV):

Company: Green REIT (GRN:ID)

Last TGISVP Post: Here

Market Cap: EUR 926 Million

Price: EUR 1.341

Back in 2014, I pegged Green REIT’s fair value equal to its initial EUR 0.967 NAV. Looking at the share price today, that might seem like an awful call…but I’d disagree. Because GRN’s a good example of a mistake too many investors make: No matter how confident you might be about a company’s prospects, overpaying doesn’t just reduce or even eliminate your margin of safety, it may also rob you of expected future returns. Case in point: While I expected Green’s NAV (& in turn, my fair value estimate) to appreciate, I’m impressed to see a total NAV return (inc. dividends) of almost 60% (18.6% pa) here since early-2014! Unfortunately, investors were happy to pay up at the time, so they must look back & reference a EUR 1.20 market price (which inc. a significant NAV premium) for performance purposes. Almost inevitably, that premium’s now evaporated, leaving GRN trading at a discount…so instead, shareholders barely realised an 18% gain (6.1% pa, again inc. dividends), less than a third of the underlying NAV return! On average, you’d expect a better return from the market itself (in fact, the ISEQ was a far better bet)…so much for capitalising on a great stock/story!?

Overall, my valuation perspective hasn’t changed. Prime office yields in Dublin have moved lower (4.65%, per latest CBRE updates), with Green REIT close behind on a 5.2% portfolio yield. Obviously, Brexit presents a potential economic threat (& has clearly knocked sentiment)…but then again, the harder the Brexit, the more attractive Dublin likely becomes as an EU relocation/investment destination. And GRN looks well placed anyway, with 93% of its portfolio focused on Dublin, a 98% occupancy rate, and total gearing of just 19%. Applying a 1.0 Price/Book multiple, and adjusting for the recent annual dividend payment, we get:

(EUR 1.52 Dil EPRA NAV – 0.046 Div) * 1.0 P/B = EUR 1.47

Green REIT looks marginally under-valued here. And I don’t consider the recent NAV discount swing cause for alarm – experienced investors should be used to a 10-20% premium/discount appearing on a regular basis, presuming underlying NAV looks realistic (which it does, based on current yield/other metrics). However, progress will be tougher from here on – not to denigrate the Irish REITs, but gains to date were primarily derived buying in bulk from the banks & NAMA at 7-8.0% yields & then progressively marking down portfolios towards a 5.0% yield. More active portfolio management, reversionary rent potential & development opportunities/gains will now become far more important. But despite this recent (& extraordinarily biased) Phoenix article, shareholders here can draw comfort from having Stephen Vernon as Chairman (of GRN’s Investment Manager) – his reputation in the Irish property market precedes him…

Price Target: EUR 1.47

Upside/(Downside): 10%

For related links/graphs/files & other TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.

[praipus] 18/6/2012 13:28

AMEX:GRN American Stock Exchange





BB for the other carbon ETF CARB

[shroder] 22/11/2010 11:44

Some winners, some losers, will update the header shortly - also adding Hydrodec to the list.

[shroder] 13/8/2010 08:57

Interesting technology

Jinan Eco-Energy

[shroder] 14/5/2010 07:32

All charts updated and OPP added.

Origo Partners have significant exposure to the growing battery technology in China through their direct investments.

Another qualifying investment is their substantial holding in biofuel producer, RIBEC.

[shroder] 13/5/2010 16:44

before i change all the charts in the header is there a way for them to auto update?

[shroder] 13/5/2010 13:26

Will add OPP later

[shroder] 13/5/2010 13:08

Forgot about this thread, will update this week.

It's good to see some of the potential being recognised with FGN being bid for rather than valuing some IP based companies as supermarkets.

TyraTech is a prime example with $14m invested by one partner alone (Kraft)

[shroder] 17/6/2009 09:10

have added Photon Photo Stock index to the header, not quite sure how its calculated but it s up there -

[shroder] 15/6/2009 09:08

Thanks napoleon, have added spgh to the header -

Going to change the charts soon as not updating

[napoleon 14th] 15/6/2009 08:33

Good thread!

How about SPGH?

[shroder] 15/6/2009 07:44

Wind farm boost for Scots firms


The Clyde wind farm will be capable of powering more than 300,000 homes

More than £200m of contracts are to be placed with Scottish firms during the construction of Europe's largest onshore wind farm in South Lanarkshire.

First Minister Alex Salmond announced the figure during a visit to observe preparatory works at Clyde wind farm.

When complete, the 152-turbine facility near Abington will be capable of powering up to 320,000 homes.

The £600m scheme from Scottish and Southern Energy is expected to create 200 jobs during construction.

The wind farm is expected to be completed in 2011.

The phased build will see turbines erected in clusters on either side of the M74 motorway.

Mr Salmond said the turbine towers for the Clyde wind farm would be supplied by Welcon Towers at Machrihanish - an order worth more than £10m.

[shroder] 07/6/2009 20:06

Have added charts to all those companies posted -

At first glance there does seem to be a certain commonality with most of the charts gently edging upwards

It would be good to have a sector chart, will see if I can dig out one -

[shroder] 04/6/2009 07:41

Energy giant boosts wind farm portfolio: Scottish & Southern Energy announced the acquisition of another wind farm site, confirming its determination to press on with acquisitions despite the financing pressures facing U.K. firms.

[shroder] 01/6/2009 16:22

Cheers 2b, sorry I didn't see your post earlier - will add to the list

[shroder] 01/6/2009 14:55

Adding ROM to the list, will tidy the thread up later and add some charts -

[knowing] 31/5/2009 22:48

Stumbled across this one which may be worth looking at

[2baffled] 31/5/2009 22:26

Welldone Shroder !

[I've bobbed over here from the TAN board.

Now then [I hold ZEN].

Interested parties should have a lookie over here;

ZEN ====>>
Their efficiencies are terrific.

Short term 'boosts';
Obama, SEV-US, Ford BEV's.

Rummage thru. the RNSs., particularly the 'smart-grid', 'EON', and 'results'.

Long-term;
The heaters, generators and more infrastructure.

Worth running yr. rule over?


Best,

2b..