Great Portland Estates Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 30/4/2010 08:17

Just been reading a Candover summary of the buy-out market. The conclusions are:

Despite much optimistic rhetoric over the prospects for 2010, the year seems to have carried over the subdued atmosphere that prevailed through the end of 2009, with overall activity levels falling slightly in Q1 from 235 deals to 226.

There was some good news in the form of an increase in the aggregated value total, though the modest 2.6% rise from €10.3bn to €10.5bn reflects more accurately stagnation compared to the previous quarter rather than any sense of growth.

Further encouragement will be gleaned from a comparison with the first quarter of 2009, which reveals that the total value of investments is up almost three-fold year-on-year. If history is any judge, 2010 should therefore see significantly improved statistics over the year as a whole.

Growth was driven by the mid-market, where GPE are strong.

[18bt] 16/4/2010 14:24

Even given no improvement in NAV, I do feel that there should be a further closing of the discount. 15-20% would be my targte over the next few months. Given that I also think multiples will rise from 9x EBITDA partly as a result of the rising stock market and that the EBITDA which is multiplied will also increase, I can see upside of 25% or so from here. I also have shares in Electra, which is also performing well since the New Year and SVG is tipped in IC today.

[nil pd] 16/4/2010 12:31

18BT, I've kept GPE on my monitor in spite of selling out in full before the crash in 2008 as I always had some respect for the management (as well as the concept of access to private equity in this vehicle). Yes, that call option was a good punt, wasn't it, even though I considered it rash for an IT to get into such an instrument?!

The share price is now speaking about 400p again and I wonder if I've missed out on the recovery. What's your opinion about closing the 25% discount to NAV? To be clear, I'm not a holder right now.

[18bt] 16/4/2010 08:02

No comment on these since the final results in March, but the accounts are now out. The over-commitments now look very manageable, so I don't think there is any doubt as to the financial viability of GPE going forward. The shares still sit at a discount to year end NAV of some 25%, which seems very high. It's just a pity they haven't done what they did a few years ago and buy a call option on the market with the spare cash.

[18bt] 13/11/2009 07:20

IMS this morning. Nothing much new.

[james111] 31/5/2009 20:19

one of my better buys! got in at 161 in march. about time something went right for me this year.
anyone topping up at these levels or do we thing things may slow somewhat?

[goldthorpe] 07/4/2009 16:09

Director buying yesterday. Not seen that here before.

[donalc] 06/4/2009 10:33

I thought result read very cautiously so am a bit surprised at this jump.

[msm] 03/4/2009 19:11

It is out now

[donalc] 03/4/2009 10:35

I suppose anytime up till 16.30 is allowed?

I would have thought results would have been out at 7 am.

[donalc] 02/4/2009 10:21

So results tomorrow it is then.

[a1samu] 31/3/2009 11:44

Purely on chart action basis according to ii the free research service that comes with Selftrade, they are calling the price to 190p, on the 30 March, with a stoploss at 144p.

I think there are safer bets in the market place today, which also pay a generous and secure dividend, like Weir or Petrofac, but I am cautious committing extra cash to purchases, since it appears that the market is once again in a downtrend.

[donalc] 31/3/2009 10:19

Is this rise a dead cat bounce?
Or does the market think more positively about results due any day- which as others have said will be 3 months out of date.

[nil pd] 30/3/2009 16:08

Sorry donalc, I didn't spell it out clearly. Basically the NAV is too far out of date and I concur with a1 on that. The reassurance from the directors on 16 March speaks for nothing when it is a retrospective NAV. Currently I consider it as cash in the bank and the equity assets set to zero (some of the assets may be worthless). So that's 190p per share unless some cash has since been spent, in which case lower.

The market is therefore currently valuing the company at a significant discount to cash-in-the-bank value. The price is likely to drop further when the woeful retrospective NAV situation is flagged up clearly to the market. I believe it will happen because the company will have to work at justifying the method.

As a1 elequently puts it, the trailing NAV method works well in a rising market. Not t'other way about.

[a1samu] 30/3/2009 15:44

The last NAV declared is already three months out of date and a lot of water has flown down the river since. The NAV should be declared for the 31.3.2009 some time in the distant future, which will be much less than the one for the 31.12.1008.

They should also be putting out a massive profit warning, because already the NAV is much, much less than it was last time, that is on the 31.12.2008. If you believe anything else it is sad.

These bunch of directors are totally misleading the investors with their reporting, which is due to some very lax rules, which should be changed to better inform and better keep up to date shareholders.

In the past, when markets were on the way up, it did not so much matter, that they were so behind with reporting on NAV. They were progressing to higher and higher levels then. Now the landscape has totally changed and values have evaporated, so I would have expected a responsible board of directors to be more communicative of the bad news then this company is doing.

[donalc] 30/3/2009 15:18

Nil Pd

I accept I may be stupid but have they not already given a strong hint on the NAV in their statement:

Statement re final results announcement (Graphite Enterprise)





TIDMGPE

RNS Number : 9181O
Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC
16 March 2009

?
ANNOUNCEMENT TO STOCK EXCHANGE


GRAPHITE ENTERPRISE TRUST PLC


16 March 2009


Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC ("Graphite Enterprise" or the "Company") expects
to release its final results for 31 December 2008 no later than 3 April 2009.
The Company previously announced that it would release those results on 19 March
2009.


The delay in the release of the results has been to allow for the clarification
of certain technical issues. These have now been satisfactorily resolved and
will not impact the Company's net asset value per share or any other aspect of
its performance or operations.


Graphite Enterprise's net asset value per share as at 31 December 2008 is
estimated to be in the region of 449p.At that date, the Company had no debt and
had cash and near cash of GBP139.0 million (191p per share), representing
approximately 42% of the Company's total assets. "


I would imagine the next time we get a mention on NAV is in 6 months time. I agree they could keep market better informed, but maybe they dont have to, so dont?
I have risked a few K on this last week and await results. I think the collapse has happened and the percieved drop in NAV is already priced in.

[nil pd] 30/3/2009 15:05

a1samu, I concur. Also not a holder, I sold out completely in July 2008. Not that I am dismissing this share though - I will be back when the time is right and that is not now, in my opinion. Also IMO, I suspect we will hear some uncomfortable news re NAV and the market will over-react, although I can't agree with your post 34 that the price will collapse. But that could be a good time to consider re-entry, if I feel so inclined, depending on the full disclosure.

[a1samu] 30/3/2009 11:37

Well no, over the years this share chart was very easy to follow and I have been able to exit/enter it at crucial moments before collapse/rise. I am not holding any shares & I ould not touch this with a bargepole at the moment.

What is infuriating is the lax reporting rules according to which it can keep the market in suspense for up to three months before it will release NAV prices.

Also, they should have reported a profit warning a long time ago already, because it is very likely that the next NAV will be much less than the one reported last.

No womder there is a crisis out there and a massive lack of confidence in directors of companies.`

[corrientes] 27/3/2009 07:45

It seems extremely unlikely that all their cash is committed and so has no value.

[goldthorpe] 24/3/2009 21:37

a1samu,
Your words look as if you are fuming with anger. Did you buy at the top (serious question)? Or, are you an informed observer?

[a1samu] 22/3/2009 12:24

NAV is 449p at 31 December 2008, which is down from the date of the last sale, when NAV was reported of 494p. The latest NAV is reported on the 16 March 2009, which is two and a half months out of date. This is outragous.

The market does not believe the directors of this company. They should be able to report NAV by the day, if they so wanted.

To report NAV two and a half months out of date is just sheer stupid. In any case NAV should have fallen further by the end of March and is likely to be below 400p, even at their reckoning.

There is no reason why this share should not collapse, just like Candover did, which is now about 10% of its value only a short time ago and is unable to sell itself even at the latest discounted share price, because of their commitments to invest monies they do not have, in busted companies.

The fall in this share price is far from over.

[donalc] 17/3/2009 14:18

thanks for pointing out what the numbers/words mean.

[jonwig] 17/3/2009 13:23

Tiltonboy - thanks. Even in these markets an ungeared discount to cash assets would be pretty unbelievable.

[donalc] 17/3/2009 11:43

That explain some of it.
Further down the same IMS it reports selling funds which brought in 60million.
This in turn seemed to drop both the above figures by 60million.