Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cocopah] 20/9/2021 15:45

They called it the mid-market price on the day which of course is nonsense (but it is what it is!). On the positive side DC (dynamic containment) is only one of the 7 (I think) income streams (albeit about 27% of revenues). FFR (Firm Frequency Response) is the other big hitting income stream accounting for 57% of revenues. I don’t know how many of the income streams attract subsidies or what the IRRs are for each. I do think the management team could be more open and communicative (it’s a pity that their Twitter account has not been used since 2018!). As I said earlier it would be positive (if not plain fair) for investors to know how the current energy squeeze is impacting revenues. Of course this could be positive, negative or no impact at all with offsetting dynamics at play. 🤷‍a94;️

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 14:51

Just to add Boonkoh - I've now read the Shore Capital broker note which states that Gore Street's own estimates "assume that DC prices reduce substantially" in the next two quarters. It's slightly opaque but I take that as Gore Street being conservative in its forecasts, rather than as a portent of doom. Shore Capital is overall bullish and predicts a 7% yield and double digit NAV total returns.

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 14:31

Thanks Boonkoh - will look into that. I'd very interested in anyone's thoughts on the 4% price spike on Friday which was the result of single uncrossing trade in the after hours auction. It wouldn't matter, except Gore Street have used that price - 116p - to promote the fundraising at a 7% discount when in reality it's more like 3%.

[boonkoh] 20/9/2021 14:17

Dynamic Containment revenues are 27% of portfolio revenues for the FY21. Likely to be higher as only started Oct20.They benefited from limited competition and got the maximum tariff available.Shore Capital broker note recently said they're expecting a big drop off in revenues from Oct/Nov. Didn't say why. But thinking either National Grid is lowering max rates. Or more competition coming in.So I'd be expecting a big hit to DC revenues. Let's assume it is 30% of total revs (low estimate). And rates go down by 50%. Plausible as it was a max rate. That's an overall portfolio reduction of revenues of 15%. Ouch. Twice of the dividend.Its so clear too see that Gore Street doesn't want to give a TU with fundraising because otherwise would have to disclose something like this. Instead they're maximising their fundraising mandate, issuing max shares they can without an AGM, before the wobbles start.

[cocopah] 20/9/2021 14:00

I was caught out elsewhere and paid over the odds on a capital raise for this type of investment, so last time GSF did this (look back and see) I waited and it was possible to buy-in just below the Primary Bid offer. Save yourself some money and hassle and just buy-in direct to your ISA at c£1.05-£1.07 (IMHO) when the opportunity presents itself in October. Don't forget that more shares requires more income to service the dividend at the current level too. On a separate note, I am more than interested in GSFs current income (so far no update) and whether the recent energy squeeze is having/will have any impact on the current revenue streams. DYOR of course.

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 10:45

Markets overall will be volatile in next few days - especially if Chinese housing market implodes - so you might get lucky with a limit order at 107. Doubt it tho

[adamb1978] 20/9/2021 09:06

Is it really likely to fall to the placing price of 107p? Last reported NAV was 101p

GRID is trading at 1.13x NAV from what I can see so being able to add GSF at 110p in the open market seems about as good as you might be able to get

[gateside] 20/9/2021 08:59

Yes saw your post. Appreciated.But if it does fall to 107p in open market, then that will save on extra costs. Will wait and see what the price does over the coming days.

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 08:32

boonkoh - forgive my ignorance but what do you mean by "DC revenues falling off a cliff in Oct"?

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 08:31

Still has eight days to expiry so best wait and see

[boonkoh] 20/9/2021 08:07

No trading update with fundraising today? All that recent volatility in energy prices mustn't have translated to much more trading revenues. And DC revenues falling off a cliff in Oct... This is their pre emotive fundraise ahead of gloomy news of revenue drop.Squeeze the lemmings for the rest of the fundraising authorisation before the bad news drops.

[cwa1] 20/9/2021 07:53

Given how ropey futures look this morning you MIGHT well get a chance of getting it at 107p direct through the market. Will be interesting to see how it pans out...

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 07:52

Gateside - see my post earlier. You can buy via Primarybid, transfer to a general share trading account and then do a 'put through' trade from there to your ISA costing around £90-100 in commission and spread

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 07:50

Can anyone explain why the price jumped by 4% in Friday's closing auction from just under 112 to 116.Just over £400K was traded at the uncrossing price. Seems a bit rum. It means that Gore Street can claim to be offering a 7% discount for its fund raise as opposed to 3%. Still a good prospect though

[gateside] 20/9/2021 07:40

It's a pity Primary Bid don't allow a transfer into an ISA.With the added costs, it's probably best to wait and buy in the open market direct into an ISA, as there is every chance that they will fall to near 107p

[bluntnib] 20/9/2021 07:32

You can purchase via PrimaryBid, transfer into a non-ISA general trading account and do a 'put through' trade from there to your ISA or Sipp. You will pay around £40-£50 depending on the broker, plus about the same again in spread to the marketmaker (though technically botht trades should cross at the same price). IG and Interactive Investor both do this.

[rogerramjett] 20/9/2021 07:19

Fund raise to develop a large pipeline. All good for growth. Anyone think it will be possible to pick up in my ISA at 107p as I can't buy through primary bid in an ISA

[boonkoh] 17/9/2021 12:38

Sorry, my bad, typo! Yes I meant DC not CD.

[rustle2] 17/9/2021 10:35

Dynamic Containment CD. I was ignorant too!

It's a fast response frequency balancing service.
.

[zeppo] 17/9/2021 10:33

whilstev

Yes what is CD?

[whilstev] 17/9/2021 09:51

Boonkoh, excuse my ignorance but what is CD ?

[boonkoh] 16/9/2021 19:16

Whatever extra they make in Trading this winter, it's not going to offset the huge loss of revenues from CD. Rates are falling off a cliff from Oct, and that's the largest segment of revenue for these batteries.

[boonkoh] 13/9/2021 22:23

Why pay a premium to NAV (101p) when you can just wait for the next equity fundraising at a discount to prevailing share price. Inevitable as their ambition is to keep buying more assets over time.They do the placings via PrimaryBid so super easy to participate as a retail investor. Just wait and buy.

[cocopah] 07/9/2021 08:13

Latest NAV after capital raising now £1.01. Divi of 2p confirmed (slightly earlier pmt then last year, ex on 16th Sept and paid on 8th Oct). I would have liked an income update too.