Gooch & Housego Share Discussion Threads

[seanyboy] 15/2/2010 12:18

Hey bookbroker been out of the country for the last month and still am. I don't actually ever fret over GHH - their "uniqueness" and potential is there for all to see and as I have already stated I have an affinity with GHH as a company going back to the Archie days. Financially GHH has already been very kind to me and I am very confident that long-term holders will be well rewarded. How well with depend on the main point you mention in your previous post. And just for the record - would I be surprised to see GHH a £10+ stock - not in the least and that should not be taken as a ramp - not required here or with any stock.

[bookbroker] 02/2/2010 12:04

Seanyboy - you got to remember, and you'll see this by looking at the chart above, this cos. price is really back to where it was this time last year. The circumstances concerning the last eighteen months were an exceptional time for industry as a whole, and this co. was a real victim of manufacturing industry effectively pulling down the shutters. At the end of 2007 there were signs emerging throughout the industrialised world as a whole that a significant breakdown in the growth pattern that had existed since 2002 was emerging. Since then significant destocking and rationalisation by cos. has taken place, and if we are on the cusp of a sustainable improvement in the global backdrop then GHH should be a strong beneficiary with its technical expertise in the electronics sector. It may be wishful thinking, but depending on the rate of turnaround, it is even possible that upgrades to the existing forecasts are possible. This co. is a leader in a very complex and technologically demanding field, with large barriers to entry, that's why it should be lauded.

[electronica] 26/1/2010 09:06

Geovest

And a very savvy character he is too. It must be a good sign when an accountant spends £16k5 of his own dosh!

[geovest] 26/1/2010 08:42

Good to see Non-Exec buying.

[seanyboy] 21/1/2010 12:05

nice informative post bookbroker - at least there is no sign of vertigo at the moment!

[bookbroker] 21/1/2010 11:58

I don't think you will see bolt-ons, certainly not until the US acquisition firmly bedded and markets showing clear signs of significant improvement, although their US acquisition a good long-term buy, the timing unfortunate, might have got a better deal 6 months later. They got a bit of debt now on the balance sheet, and the US deal will require capital investment in terms of plant and machinery. Just don't get ahead of yourself Electronica.

[seanyboy] 21/1/2010 11:13

Seems like something is brewing at GHH - I believe the ground work has been laid for a climb back north. This stock has never managed to consolidate up north and obviously suffers from vertigo - however if it can kick that condition we really could have some ride. We are not suppose to get too attached to our stocks but I would say I "fell in love" with Archie and the boys way back 10 years ago and as you know true love lasts forever!

[electronica] 20/1/2010 09:33

The industrial market is recovering well.

I consult to Bosch & their gear goes onto the very same machine tools etc that use the GHH Laser Q Switch. Demand is improving v fast - especially in China, Japan, Brazil & Indi - there's no reason to expect that GHH are not seeing the same improvement.

The recovery of the core Q Switch business is still the key to GHH's immediate prospects. The new acquisitions and new markets (aerospace, comms & science especially) add icing to the cake in this FY - but will really start to perform in FY2011. The deeper integration projects & consequent value added profits will really start to come through in FY2012.

Add in the role of GHH as a "consolidator" in a v fragmented industry (once the balance sheet is really sorted - in, say, Q4 this year) with a couple of £4-6m "bolt-ons" & we've got the share price that I've called.

[bookbroker] 20/1/2010 09:13

If this recovery is for real, then you could see some upgrades emerge from GHH. as a geared recovery play.

[bookbroker] 20/1/2010 09:11

That's pushing it, bought in , sold out, and bought in, a co. that is a leader in its field, albeit a relatively small one, but a niche player in a high-tech. market, the opportunity is there, we just need a bounce in the economic recovery and to really establish some sort of recovery. Important to see cos. like Intel to really give the micro-processor markets a lift.

[electronica] 15/1/2010 15:53

Seanyboy

I've been watching GHH for many years & used the recent "incentive plan" RNS as an excuse for buying in.

If the 3 exec directors & a few managers can hit the 600p target in just under 3 years they will get £12m between them. I'm counting on them doing it (& doing it early) & giving me a 4 bagger in 30 months.

[seanyboy] 15/1/2010 15:31

at last a move and predictably it is upwards! I must say i know little of what ghh do but it has generally been very kind to me having held them on/off for around 5 years. I do like it's roots i.e. Archie (god bless him) and all that. With the US military connections I see mostly upside and no reason why it cannot get back to where it was 18/24 months ago i.e. 5£ perhaps higher with the right deals being struck. Not a share to get you too excited but money is money! dyor

[geovest] 01/12/2009 14:46

Adjusted EPS excluding exceptionals was 11.5p, therefore a historical PE of 11.7. With recovering markets and operational gearing we are looking at a forward PE of below 10. New market deals, although not materially contributing to 2010 because of long lead times, will be discounted when announced, which could be any time.

I've always viewed this as medium to longer term investment. Even without any major deals, the profitability will recover over the next 2 years and the share price will be back to £3-4. Major "transformational" deals will add to this. A return of 100-200% over 2-3 years is good enough for me.

[kannerwas] 01/12/2009 09:54

I'm out of here following today's results. I think this co probably has a bright future long-term, but the share price has recovered more quickly than I expected over the past 9 months and I think the short-term risks are on the downside.
The company expects its core markets to recover slowly. Meanwhile its ventures into Aerospace & Defence, Life Sciences and Research, while 'potentially transformational', are not expected to make any material contribution in 2010, and some carry considerable risks many of which are not within the co's power to control (e.g. political decision-making. I can't see the justification for a P/E of 27.

[bookbroker] 23/11/2009 16:25

I would hope that with a recovering world economy we would see £3-£4 somewhat quicker, expecting a positive statement 01/12/09.

[thearcticfox] 14/10/2009 15:30

Some nice size buys today. Should be due another tick up soon ;o)

[garth] 09/10/2009 08:15

Still climbing :0)

[geovest] 06/10/2009 16:16

I agree. If you take a 3 year view on this it should be back at 350-400 at least.

[garth] 06/10/2009 10:52

Looking good for a climb past 150p this time?

Only forecast to make 9p eps this year - but will make far more than that in an improving economy..... On just 7x historic earnings at these levels.....

[garth] 18/9/2009 16:36

What a very agreable week :0)

[bookbroker] 16/9/2009 15:19

I should correct myself, 'the US is likely to be emerging from recession'.

[bookbroker] 16/9/2009 15:17

Have you not heard, the US is technically out of recession, demand for industrial laser control systems likely to pick up.

[greenslug] 16/9/2009 15:12

No idea but I expect they will need to put out a statement.

[geovest] 16/9/2009 14:22

What's up? Anyone know what caused this bounce?