Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[1rodson] 09/2/2018 14:28

PETTY SILLY PATHETIC LITTLE PERSON WHO JUST CANT READ.....NO WONDER THE CLOWN IS STUCK IN THIS DOG......WHILE REAL GUYS ARE MAKING REAL MONEY WITH THE LION........PITY YOU1

[1rodson] 09/2/2018 12:45

come on guys stop being foolish, GET REAL and move on! DOES ANYONE HERE SERIOUSLY THINK THAT PUTTING YOUR MONEY INTO GDP IS THE SAIN THING TO DO?

GDP IS GOING NOWHERE. THE MARKET HAS A LONG MEMORY.

HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY TRUST A COMPANY THAT POSTS ACCOUNTS WHICH ARE FLAWED AND BASED UPON THOSE INSAINLY FALSE ACCOUNTS PAYS A DIVI.

THEN NO SONER AS THEY ANNOUNCED THE DIVI THEY HAVE TO RETRACT. SAINING THEY MADE A MISTAKE AND THEN ISSUE A PROFIT WARNING AND CANCEL THE DIVI.

THEN THERE IS KILI WHICH THEY SAID WAS A WASTE OF TIME...NOW ITS MAKING MONEY WITH A STRONG FUTURE.

This company is inherently flawed...walk away as these are FACTS I POST NOT RAMPERS' DREAMS

[1rodson] 09/2/2018 12:37

Kimboy28 Feb '18 - 13:32 - 4939 of 4940 (Filtered)

0 0 0
Kimboy29 Feb '18 - 09:34 - 4940 of 4940 (Filtered)

sea77 Feb '18 - 15:45 - 12178 of 12178 (Filtered)

[kimboy2] 09/2/2018 09:34

It is very difficult to calculate profitability from the bottom up. If we take Ghana for example in H1/17 they produced 7,588ozs and in H1/18 they produced 3,597ozs.

If you try and work out on a profit per ounce basis you would reckon that profits would be plunging in Ghana. However I don't think that is the case.

Gerard has said that Ghana was operating at full capacity this half, which is something that I don't believe was the case last year, and the material processed this half were lower grade but much higher margin.

Similarly with this large batch that they have acquired some time July/August. It would appear that they have bought it and they have said it is for the underground line and will keep it busy for some time. They are presently doing metalurical tests to improve recoverability.

The underground line does 6,000t per month and the recoverability was said to be 50%. If we assume that they have 6 months production at a grade o 7g/t and they can improve recoverability from 50% to 60% then that is an extra £0.5m profit in the half year.

Anyway the point I am making is that once you have worked out what the margins are at each plant and profit per ounce, then that only provides a snapshot and the numbers may be completely different in the next period, certainly for the recovery plants.

[1rodson] 09/2/2018 09:01

Good, if not slightly flawed, analysis from dangersimpson28 Feb '18 - 11:54 - 4938 of 4939. Sensible posts always welcomed UNLIKE THE FILTERED GARBAGE PUMPING FROM THE TERRIBLE DUO, but no matter however well intended DS is, the market knows best and has consequently marked down the share price today knowing there is much better value to be had elsewhere.

[kimboy2] 08/2/2018 13:32

There are just too many moving parts to get clean numbers for each subsidiary. The operating numbers with the quarterly results used to be useful, but I suspect that the company felt it gave too much information for potential suppliers and competition.

Agree with your conclusions, but we shall perhaps see when results come out in a fortnight or so.

The interesting question is to why it is so low. In that respect I looked at the VSA report from Febuary 2 years ago. They were forecasting attributable for 2016 of £283k and for 2017 of £234k. The outturn was £992k for 2016, 6 months after the forecast, and £1.348m for 2017.

Doesn't encourage potential investors much IMV

[dangersimpson2] 08/2/2018 11:54

The PAT figures I've taken are before exchange translation (& discontinued losses) but I think FX could definietly still be a factor in there.

I guess a cleaner way would be to model in local currency but I'll leave that for another day - what this exercise has revealed/confirmed to me is that:

- Ghana is a very profitable operation despite its challenges.
- Successful Kili turnaround will have a big positive impact on the company financials.
- The market appears to have been wrong to view the H1 production figures as dissapointing.
- We are likely to beat the VSA estimates by a wide margin barring major disruptions/issues.
- we may be trading at a forward EV/EBIT multiple of as low as 2 with continued growth prospects into FY19.

[kimboy2] 08/2/2018 07:08

Yes the figures given in the AR for operating profit for South Africa of £3.312, a PAT for Ghana of £1.177m and a net loss of £1.1m at Kili.

I know we are adding apples and pears but this adds up to £3.389. The operating figure in the accounts in the P&L is £2.91, a difference of £0.479m.

There will be some taxes and interest expense to come off the figures for Ghana and kenya. Then there is the £700k of central costs to add on.

I notice that 'exchange translation' is about £1m

[dangersimpson2] 07/2/2018 22:51

Yeah that might be the case - I guess the point is though that the figures given for the operating profit of the subsidiaries either given directly in the AR (GPL) or implied by the PAT given in the AR (GRG & KGL) doesn't add up to the operating profit in the consolidated group accounts. That the amount is fairy consistent FY 16 & 17 makes me think this is central group costs but it could equally be an FX impact that happens to be roughly the same between FY's.

The other option of course is that they are receiving a big tax credit at Kili so that the operating loss is significantly larger than the PAT. You sometimes see this in tech companies that receive large investment tax credits however I struggle to see this in the AR and would be surprising if Kenya was paying a tax credit whne they won't even pay the VAT they agree they owe KGL.

Whatever the true source of the variance it must be there to make the maths work and doesn't impact the rest of the calculations.

[kimboy2] 07/2/2018 18:19

.It may be that the anomaly regarding operating profit arises because the figures given in the AR for each company are worked out on the day of the transaction.

However the figure in the P&L will be worked out at the year end

[kimboy2] 07/2/2018 18:19

If the central admin costs are not in the £2286k for admin in the P&L where else would they be?

[dangersimpson2] 07/2/2018 17:15

Sorry, confusion casued by accidentally shifting the column on the Admin expenses while copying from excel to a pre table.

Th operating profit figures for subsidiaries I get from:

GPL - given in annual report
GRG - PAT given in annual report, applying 7.5% tax to cover 6 months of 15% tax in Ghana following tax free status ending half way through year.
KGL - PAT from annual report add back in 177k FX losses

Adding together would be £3361k but from AR annual Operating Profit at a group level is £2910k so we must have 751k of centrally allocated group costs.

The £2286k is the difference between group gross profit of £5196k & £2910k so this must be admin costs at a subsidiary level. We know £671k is for GPL from AR so the remaining £1615k must be split between GRG & KGL.

When you add the admin expenses assumptions (£1615k split between GRG & KGL) to the operating profit for each subsidiary you get the Gross Profit for each and then taking away from the revenue you get the Cost of Sales.

The big assumption is for the split between admin exp. GRG & KGL. You can do the same for FY16 but not FY15 due to not enough AR details. This is a simple 50/50 split:


FY17 Revenue CoS G. Profit Admin Exp Op Profit PATGPL 25066 21083 3983 671 3312 2420GRG 3434 1354 2080 808 1272 1177KG 3150 3266 -116 808 -923 -1100Central -751 Group 31650 26454 5196 2286 2910 1976 FY16 Revenue CoS G. Profit Admin Exp Op Profit PATGPL 15223 12504 2719 608 2111 1777GRG 3402 2371 1031 594 437 437KG 1560 1677 -117 594 -711 -711Central -625 Group 20185 17177 3008 1796 1212 1454




I hate Soduko!

[kimboy2] 07/2/2018 15:40

I don't understand why central expenses has been subtracted. If GPL is £671k and central is £751k won't that leaves £864k for Kili and Ghana form total admin of £2.286m.

Some of this increase from 2016 will be to do with the operation in South America and possibly some to do with the build up of capex in Ghana and Kenya.

Administrative expenses from continued operations increased by 27% to £2,286,000 (FY 2016: 1,796,000), primarily as a result of increased activity in South America, Kenya and Ghana.

Not sure what the breakdown would be for 2016

[russman] 07/2/2018 12:34

About 10%.

[dangersimpson2] 07/2/2018 12:11

I might well be being thick again but I don't really understand the calculation for Kili.

In 2017 you show a gross profit of £192k. I think we know that Kili made a loss of £1.133m which would imply admin of £1.3m there.

Is that right?

Allocating the Admin expenses between GRG & Kili is the big unknown in all this. I had assumed the bulk of these would fall on Kili because otherwise GRG would have what I considered to be unrealistically high gross margins. However given our discussion I think maybe GRG really does have great margins.

Here is my FY17 'Soduko':


FY17 Revenue CoS Gross Profit Admin Exp Op Profit PATGPL 25066 21083 3983 671 3312 2420GRG 3434 1662 1772 500 1272 1177KG 3150 2958 192 1115 -923 -1100Central -751 Group 31650 26454 5196 2286 2910 1976




Note I have reduced Kili op loss by 177k due to:

The Kilimapesa gold mine reported a net loss of £1,100,000 (FY 2016: loss of £711,000) for the year under review. An increase in unrealised foreign exchange losses of £177,000 on intercompany payables contributed to the increased loss.

Which is the difference between my Admin expense and the £1.3m you have calculated.

If I split the unknown admin expenses more evenly it would look like this:


FY17 Revenue CoS Gross Profit Admin Exp Op Profit PATGPL 25066 21083 3983 671 3312 2420GRG 3434 1354 2080 808 1272 1177KG 3150 3266 -116 808 -923 -1100Central -751 Group 31650 26454 5196 2286 2910 1976




If GRG really did have these sort of gross margins we would have a further positive impact on profitability and we'd see c£2m PBT H1 & c£3m H2.

This seems surely too high though - we would hit VSA's FY forecast in H1 and I know VSA are behind the curve but surely not that far?!

[sea7] 07/2/2018 12:00

Gerard did talk about putting some AISC and cash costs up at some point.

I would expect figs in the region of £1.3 - £1.5m to be about right for H1.

[kimboy2] 07/2/2018 11:30

IMV it is very difficult to work out the marginal profitability of each subsidiary. What we know for certain is that last year South Africa made a pre tax operating profit of £3.3m, Ghana £1.17m and Kili a loss £1.1m.

After central costs, tax and minority interests this translates to an attibutable profit to GDP of £1.361m for the year.

The question seems to me to be what has changed from last year. I would say;
1. The loss at Kili will be transposed into a profit for the year, if not the half year.

2. The new elution column will reduce costs and move profits to a lower tax zone and where GDP own 100%

3. The new fluidised bed in Ghana will increase production in a full year by perhaps 3kozs, though how much this year depends on completion. In a full year I expect this to improve profitability by at least $1m.

4. I get the impression that as a result of the sourcing that they are operating at much closer to capacity, even though production declined minimally in H1/18 compared to H1/17.

5. The implication of this is it depends what grades they are putting through. They tend to put lower grades through when prices are stronger.

6. The question of overall profitability depends crucially on the price they pay for the material that they buy, and the contracts for the rest. Obviously we just don't know, and they aren't going to tell us, but I suspect that as they are presently collecting so much material the prices are pretty good.

As for what will the interims show I am hoping for £1.3 - 1.5m, with further advances in H2/18.

[sea7] 07/2/2018 09:26

not sure what you are going on about rodson/daniel miller

The accounts are correct. The divi was stopped ages ago. They are on track to make more profit this year, than last.

The company is not flawed, it is your analysis and understanding of it, that is flawed.

[1rodson] 07/2/2018 09:22

come on guys stop being foolish and move on GDP IS GOING NOWHERE. THE MARKET HAS A LONG MEMORY.

hOW CAN YOU POSSIBLE TRUST A COMPANY THAT POSTS ACCOUNTS WHICH ARE FLAWED AND BASED ON THOSE ACCOUNT PAYS A DIVI.

THEN THEY HAVE TO RETRACT. SAY THEY MADE A MISTAKE AND ISSUE A PROFIT WARNING AND CANCEL THE DIVI.

THEN THERE IS KILI WHICH THEY SAID WAS A WASTE OF TIME...NOW ITS MAKING MONEY WITH A STRONG FUTURE.

This company is inherently flawed...walk away as these are FACTS I POST NOT RAMPERS' DREAMS