Golden Prospect Precious... Share Discussion Threads

[noirua] 26/11/2020 11:31

Interesting now GPSS with buying at below 0.8p. GPM now at 47.5p bid. 47.5p - 46.14p looks at a present price of 1.36p bid. Looks imho a fair gamble.
Selling at just 0.2p for GPSS looks an odd decision with the value so low. The real spread is wide at about 0.2p/0.78p. - 75% spread.

[arbus5000] 26/11/2020 09:33

its thanksgiving and bitcoin is tumbling...

[ultrasharp] 25/11/2020 23:44

Looking like gold has bottomed out and Bitcoin has peaked. I expect gold to start rising again and Bitcoin to fall back down.

[kenmitch] 25/11/2020 21:41

12string

As arbus5000 has posted it doesn’t matter.

I’ve never fully understood that question and have never bothered to find the answer as it is irrelevant as far as investing in warrants/sub shares is concerned.

[arbus5000] 25/11/2020 20:55

it doesn't matter - the costs would presumably cover the interest on the loan to exercise them

[12string] 25/11/2020 20:22

@Ken, thx, but who coughs up the 46.14p per share????

[kenmitch] 25/11/2020 19:38

Yes 12string you are missing something.

The lapsed shares WILL be exercised if the trustee can do it. And assuming the trustee can exercise lapsed sub shares the Trust WILL get the money.

That is a fact, based on many years of investing in sub shares and warrants when there used to be hundreds of them to choose from. And it’s also something you and anyone in doubt can check by contacting GPM.

There would be no point GPM appointing a trustee if they didn’t then get the cash from the exercised lapsed Subscription Shares.

[12string] 25/11/2020 19:30

Keya5000,

My reading is that unless the GPSS shares are underwritten, the Trust Manager or Trustee will have to buy (exercise) and then sell the lapsed shares - that is to say, buy at 46.14 and then sell within 14 days at 14.14+profit. The profit after costs to be returned to the GPSS shareholder, leaving the Trust with ZERO extra cash.

If a GPSS shareholder exercises, the 46.14 to buy is provided by the GPSS shareholder, and that obviously provides the Trust with 46.14p for every share exercised. Not so with lapsed shares.

Am I missing something?

[kenmitch] 25/11/2020 18:15

keya5000

Yes. The trustee has 14 days to exercise the lapsed sub shares. So if the share price is a good bit higher after expiry then holders of lapsed sub shares might get a good bit better outcome than if selling now.

There’s nothing to be gained by trustee or GPM by the trustee waiting in case share goes higher. So the trustee is very unlikely to risk a chance of missing the boat to exercise and will probably do it as soon as possible. GPM will get the £millions from exercising successfully regardless of the price the trustee exercises at.

So the best hope is that the share price rises fast in early December and that trustee can then exercise well above 46.14p, and give a decent gain for those who let their sub shares lapse after their expenses.

Worst outcome for both GPM and lapsed sub holders is share below 46.14p as then both GPM and sub share holders get zilch!

[noirua] 25/11/2020 15:55

So far so good with shares in Canada and America rising from 0.6% to 7% despite only a very small rise in the gold price.

[noirua] 25/11/2020 14:48

From a previous post there does seem to be some uncertainty as to when any sales might be made. Usually it is an average price.
Also GPM may accept late receipts of the 46.14p but does not say how long after. So a lot of uncertainty there. On 55p, it does look as if the gold and silver price is the only likely savior here or/and sudden buying of Canadian, USA and Aussie gold and silver shares.
My biased guess is we will see a rebound in the gold price of 50$ to $70 very soon.

[keya5000] 25/11/2020 14:38

If you bought GPSS today say at 1p and let them lapse then the trustees looked to exercise but during that time gap the price of GPM says recovers to 55p would the Trustees be able to exercise and give you the uplift?

Or is the price on closure the physical price that will be used.

[noirua] 25/11/2020 13:45

Net Diluted BID Asset value now at 56.85p - NAV Bid at 62.2p. Final date to convert GPSS via ii is today at 23.59hrs.

56.85p minus GPM bid 47p = 9.85p - discount to bid price = 17.3%

GPSS bid price shown is not reliable as sells are going through higher and some considerably lower.

[noirua] 25/11/2020 11:44

Evil Knieval at play --- get yer boots filled he say [but not for Xmas].

[noirua] 25/11/2020 10:54

Anyway, shares in gold and silver pre-market on NYSE are up 0.8% to 4% and hopefully sterling will give up some of its gains.

[arbus5000] 25/11/2020 10:44

the mid price of GPM is 48.50, and for GPSS its 0.95.

so the exercise price 46.14, means that GPMs can be obtained at 46.50 + 0.95 = 47.09.

That's a 1.41 pence per share, or c150% of the GPSS price.

[noirua] 25/11/2020 10:42

My own view is that some gold and especially silver shares across the pond have fallen a bit too much. Also the discount to diluted NAV should be around 8% to 10% imho.
Watch out for big buyers of GPM who can see a fair risk in taking a position.
GPSS shares looks a reasonable punt to nothing at this stage.

[toffeeman] 25/11/2020 10:33

I don't think you can infer anything - today is the last day for conversion via most brokers.

The dominant driver is the gold price and fwiw I don't see a short term sustained rise.

I like GPM at the right price and while the NAV discount is very large, I can see the share price falling back.

I am now completely out having made a few trades in both the subs and the stock - I just about broke even!

So clean slate and look with fresh eyes (as one should)

[noirua] 25/11/2020 10:16

The sale of 250,000 shares and 500,000 in GPSS at 0.8p was surprising with the GPM bid price at 48p and offer 49p.

[12string] 24/11/2020 22:17

The last paragraph above needs restating:

The way things stand, ........ After conversion, the NAV (not the SP) should be a fair bit closer to this Thursday's GPM NAV. That will help the share price to recover a bit in December.

My opinion only.

[12string] 24/11/2020 22:09

Taking comments from Kenmitch, Podgyted and Noirua on board ...

I agreed with their points and so what looks to be happening and will probablly happen is:

1. Gold price weakness gives GPM holders reason to sell and if they have subs shares, it's a no brainer to sell GPM. So yes, for GPM to fall to 46 makes sense.
2. There will be a significant number of people electing to let their GPSS shares lapse - fear of a continued gold price downtrend. Big falls of most miners today.
3. So the trust manager (I've not seen anything about a trustee) has the option of converting and selling (within 14 days) the "lapsed" GPSS shares. If he can't sell at 46.14 or higher, he's not going to realise a loss. So the won't convert them. If he can make a profit on the convert/sale, he's committed to return the net profit to the shareholder. Either way converting/selling "lapsed" GPSS shares provides no extra cash for the trust. Whatever convert to sell activity happens, there need to be buyers. So can't see the share price getting much above 46.14p unless there's a recovery in the gold price before mid Dec. Adding shares but not adding cash for the trust is a waste of time, it generates no cash for the trust and extra shares dilute the share price They'll only convert/sell if there's a significant £££gain and out of loyalty to shareholders.

The way things stand, and assuming gold takes a few weeks hovering just above $1800, the selling should stop if the share price drops much below 46p. After conversion, the share price will be somewhere between Thursday's GPM & GPSS NAV's, IMO probably much closer to GPM's NAV. That will help GPM after all this is over to recover a bit.

That's my feelings, FWIW !!!!

[ultrasharp] 24/11/2020 20:18

You must be going senile, phoebus. You're getting forgetful. Back in June and July, when the gold price was rising strongly, you and different world were posting non stop on GPM. You may not be posting now, but you were then! Ramping away. Look back at your posting history in those summer months. Refresh your memory.

[phoebusav] 24/11/2020 19:23

Post non-stop? I've hardly posted on GPM/GPSS in ages, whilst you've posted on it about 40 times this last month alone. What a hypocrite.

[ultrasharp] 24/11/2020 18:20

Phoebus? 🤣. Anybody who posts non stop like you and different world did on GPM is a ramper in my book. different world posts non stop these days on SYME. Not that his ramping has done any good! 🤣Actually I think the gold price has bottomed out and Bitcoin has peaked, or is close to peaking and like gold over the last few months will go through an extended period of consolidation.